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Uzbekistan: Broad-based moderation of price growth in Jun to warrant further rate cuts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 14 Jul 2023

Inflation dropped to 9.0 percent in June, the lowest level in the last 6 years. Headline CPI fell into single digits last month for the first time since Jan 2017. Inflation had been inching up over the course of 2022, hitting 12.3 percent YoY in Dec’2022 (9.8 percent in Jan’ 2022). However, favor...

Bi-Weekly Economic News Summary
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 13 Jul 2023

Jun 30 KazTransOil: The company increases oil supplies from Kazakhstan to Germany through Russia's Transneft pipeline. Since the beginning of the year it exported 290K tons Poll: Analysts expected Kazakhstan's GDP to grow by 4.2-4.8% y-o-y in 1H23 Jul 3 Russia: Mr. Abayev, previously Deputy Secre...

Tax Reform continues to be discussed in Congress, negotiations on ministerial staff changes continue, and a decree on the sanitation sector was published today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jul 2023

Despite the slower pace in Congress, Tax Reform continues to receive attention from the government and legislators. Yesterday, Fernando Haddad met with the rapporteurs of the proposal in the House and Senate, and the president of the Senate. Negotiations on ministerial staff changes continue at f...

Georgia: Trade deficit stabilizes, but remains large
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Jul 2023

Trade deficit remained large over Jan-Jun, pointing to a deterioration of the current account deficit in 2023 against the backdrop of moderating remittances from Russia. Trade data as of Jun shows that the goods deficit remains large, running at US$8.7bn on a 12-month basis (Graph 1). The sizable...

NATO Summit 2023 – mixed feelings but an apparent step forward
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jul 2023

All the developments at the NATO Summit in Vilnius triggered multiple emotional reactions from Ukraine. It would be a stretch to say that Ukrainian authorities had a poor understanding of the unfolding events or held unrealistic expectations. However, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy did require som...

Drone attack on Kyiv does minimal damage
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2023

On July 12 Kyiv was attacked by 11 Russian drones for the second night in a row. Ukraine said it destroyed all 11. No casualties were reported in Kyiv.On July 11 Kyiv was attacked by 26 drones and Ukraine claimed to have shot them all down.On July 12 in another city 2 civilians were wounded by th...

NATO Summit does not set a date for Ukrainian membership
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2023

On July 11 NATO met in Lithuania. The host is a former Soviet state, which is symbolically important. The President of Lithuania was just elected in June 2023. President Nauseda is an outspoken advocate of Ukraine's cause. Zelensky was invited to attend. It is very rare for non-NATO leaders to be...

The current account narrows in 2Q23 but could widen in 3Q23 amid a weaker ruble, while the latter will support budgetary revenue
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2023

The CBR reported that Russia's current account surplus narrowed to $5.4 bn in 2Q23 from $20.2 bn in 1Q23. The regulator also mentioned that in June alone, the current account surplus turned negative. Note, that these data are very preliminary and will be revised in the future. Nonetheless the 2Q2...

Russia tries to persuade emigrants to come home
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jul 2023

In 2022 over 700,000 Russians emigrated. There were others who left and have already returned to Russia. Most of those who left the country were young men seeking to evade conscription. The men who emigrated are mostly highly educated. They can easily work abroad and are more likely to be anti-wa...

Senator Eduardo Braga will be the rapporteur for Tax Reform in the Senate, the proposal will likely change in the Senate, and the government reached an agreement on the sanitation framework
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2023

The rapporteur for the Tax Reform proposal in the Senate was chosen—Senator Eduardo Braga (MDB-AM). He guarantees that the Senate will approve the proposal, but also recognizes that there will be changes to the text. The likelihood of changes in the text is high. For the text to be enacted, it mu...

Erdogan greenlights Sweden’s NATO membership, but why?
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Jul 2023

Turkey’s ever-so-inscrutable leader Erdogan staged another phenomenal U-turn greenlighting Sweden’s NATO membership after a summit with Stoltenberg and Swedish PM Ulf Kristersson. Turkish parliament is scheduled to ratify Swedish accession in a few days. On the face of it, two critical steps by S...

Political scene remains uncertain; El Niño introduces downside risk; we retain our call for an August rate cut
PERU · Report · 11 Jul 2023 · 2 responses

In this report, we focus on three main topics. First, we discuss the expected busy political calendar for July. On July 19th, left-wing organizations and parties are planning a march into Lima, similar that of January 28th. On July 26th, Congress will elect its new president and board. And on Jul...

Armenia: Net remittances grind to a halt in May
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 11 Jul 2023

Net monetary inflows from abroad fell significantly in May.  Net inflows tripled to around US$300mn per month last year as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war, but Jan to May data so far in the year is already indicating a return to pre-2022 levels (Graph 1). A breakdown of the inflows is showing ...

Centrão parties want more space in the government, Haddad will meet with Pacheco to discuss Tax Reform, and the CPMI on the January 8 attacks will hear from Mauro Cid
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jul 2023

The pressure from the Centrão parties for more space in the government has increased. The change of command at the Ministry of Tourism is certain. Other positions are also being targeted, such as the Ministry of Social Development, the Ministry of Sports, and the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, a...

Politics: De facto presidential candidate selection process advances, race tightens up
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jul 2023

Now that the opposition coalition and civil society groups worked out the basic rules for the process of choosing their future presidential nominee over recent weeks and Senator Xóchitl Gálvez jumped into the race, the Broad Opposition Front has begun to gain the sort of traction that eluded it f...

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