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GULF WEEKLY: Qatar mediates a Gaza ceasefire, Saudi’s Maaden plans bonds, Kuwait confirms sin tax, Gulf states re-engage with Lebanon
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 17 Jan 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Brent oil touched a five-month high following substantive US sanctions on Russian oil tankers. * OPEC and the IEA still diverge on oil demand forecasts and by 0.6m b/d on the 2024 outturn. * Following the signing of its C...

NBK holds its base rate unchanged
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 17 Jan 2025

The National Bank of Kazakhstan announced today that it decided to keep the base rate at 17.25%, quoting the usual symptoms, such as rising inflationary pressures, some signs of domestic demand overheating, and the lack of spare production capacities. Inflation in Kazakhstan remained at 0.9% m-o-...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Are the clouds darkening over Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Jan 2025

I argued in mid-2024 that Armenia's Eurobond outperformance (in particular relative to its higher-rated neighbor Georgia) was explicitly driven by perceptions of sharply reduced political and geopolitical risk premia. Internal challenges to PM Pashinyan failed to materialize over the course of 2...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A new wave of US sanctions was focused on the energy sector and caused new fears that the inflow of hard currency into Russia may decrease. As a result, the demand for hard currency increased, and the ruble moved well above USD/RUB 100 versus USD/RUB 99 at the end of 2024 (at the time of writing ...

Economic activity reportedly soared in December, albeit quite unexpectedly
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

The Bureau of National Statistics announced that in 2024, the short-term indicator (that takes into account activity in industry, agriculture, construction, trade, transportation, and communications) soared to 6.2%. In 11M24, it was up by 5.6%, implying a rapid acceleration in December alone. Mea...

One last vote under a hawkish Central Bank Board
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025

A more dovish Central Bank Board is on the way, as President Petro announced that Laura Moisá and César Giraldo will become members of the Board. Ms. Moisá, an economist from Universidad Nacional de Colombia and a PhD in Economic Development from Unicamp in Brazil, is currently the Deputy Preside...

December CPI release: a downward surprise
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The consumer price index reading for December was down by 0.3%, below market expectations for an index between 0.0% and 0.1%. This brought the annual inflation rate down to 3.2% from 3.4% in November, with core inflation (seasonally adjusted, excluding housing, fruits, and vegetables) at 3.1%—sli...

EU growth champion performs but challenges loom
POLAND · Report · 15 Jan 2025

Poland’s growth over the last three decades has been unprecedented at around 4% on average. It has been driven by fast productivity growth, trade liberalization, FDI inflows, competitive wage levels, diversified industry, a large pool of competent workers, as well as a stable institutional enviro...

Armenia-Azerbaijan tensions flare again as Aliyev claims to be preparing a “Special Military Operation”
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jan 2025

- Baku threatens to launch a “Special Military Operation” against “fascist” Armenia. - A video of former President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan talking about ethnic cleansing during the First Nagorno Karabakh War triggered outrage in Azerbaijan. - Armenia’s leaning towards the West provokes a...

As December inflation meets expectations, BCRA announces it will reduce crawl to 1% in February
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 15 Jan 2025

Yesterday, INDEC unveiled the December inflation number. It came at 2.7% m/m, in line with expectations, bringing 2004 annual inflation to 118%, down from 211% in 2023. The satisfactory headline December print encouraged BCRA to announce a reduction in the exchange rate crawl from 2% to 1% starti...

High CPI-inflation data for December: unexpected and unusual
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2025

For December, everyone expected a sharp upturn by the headline CPI-inflation rate from 3.7% yoy in November: analysts predicted 4.4% yoy, the MNB expected 4.3% yoy, the latter together with unchanged 4.4% yoy for core inflation, fuel prices pushing up the headline rate. However, the actual jump b...

Economics: Indicators for October and November confirm a more pronounced deceleration likely to extend well into 2025
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2025 · 1 response

The seasonally adjusted 0.3% yoy drop in activity the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) registered for October marked its first outright contraction since early 2021. The latest result marked an extension of the slowing trend that began in early 2Q 2024. Services continued to decelerat...

President Lula signing two significant bills and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2025

President Lula (PT) will sign two significant bills this week: one addressing the renegotiation of state debts with the federal government and the other concerning the regulation of Tax Reform. Both are expected to be sanctioned with vetoes. On Thursday, January 16, Arko Advice is hosting a debat...

The ANC’s January 8th statement post-2024 elections and coalition governance
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Jan 2025

President Cyril Ramaphosa delivered the African National Congress's (ANC) January 8th Statement this past weekend, marking the party's 113th anniversary. This address came in the wake of the 2024 general elections, where the ANC, for the first time since 1994, failed to secure an outright majorit...

The consequences of reaching above the limit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2025

The reduction in the trade balance surplus in 2024 is largely explained by import performance. We estimated a model to project the growth of imported quantum, aiming to analyze its relationship with economic growth and movements in the real exchange rate. The model indicates that a 1% increase in...

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