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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A (Near) Perfect Storm
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

Inflation forecasts point to a high likelihood of exceeding the upper limit of the target this year. Meanwhile, the Central Bank's inflation projection for the 12 months ending in June 2026, the relevant horizon for monetary policy, is 3.6%, indicating the need for an adjustment of approximately ...

Challenges surrounding the spending review package and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Nov 2024

The government is expected to send fiscal adjustment proposals to Congress. In the Senate, two important bills are on the agenda: the new rules for parliamentary fund transfers and the carbon market. Additionally, the Senate’s Committee on Constitution and Justice resumes public hearings on the t...

Erdogan throws hat into ring----amidst war drums
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024

Turkish politics entered the Twilight Zone after a brief experiment with “normalization”, which is a wind of fresh breath for Yours Truly, who has become a crisis junkie long time ago. Just like the good old days, each new dawn brings fresh shocks, most of which contradict the main developments o...

Here is the actual October CPI-inflation data: lower than expected
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Nov 2024

The headline rate is reported at 0.1% mom, 3.2% yoy, materially below the expected 3.4% yoy (MNB, ourselves) and 3.5% yoy (analysts' median forecast - see yesterday's note). Perhaps more importantly, core inflation was only 4.5% yoy, rather than the 5% indicated in the MNB's forecast chart, on no...

Data preview for tomorrow: CPI-inflation expected to have risen materially in October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2024

Here is once again the MNB's forecast chart from their latest post-meeting presentation of October 22, according to which the headline rate should go up to 3.4% yoy in October, from the cyclical low point (so far) of 3% in the preceding month: On this graph, the MNB also predicted 5% yoy core inf...

Maia Sandu wins on 2nd round of the Presidential election in Moldova
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2024

- Sandu wins 2nd round thanks to votes from abroad - Stoianoglo won in most districts inside Moldova - The country remains highly divided as it reinforces its pro-EU path On November 3, 2024, Moldova re-elected President Maia Sandu with 55% of the vote in the second round of the controversial pre...

Higher hopes in diplomacy meet higher inflation forecasts
TURKEY · Report · 10 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Ankara has Great Expectations from the second Trump presidency, some of which seem plausible. Yet, it is somewhat premature to make precise forecasts of exactly in which topic progress can be made in the troubled bi-lateral relationship, until Trump selects his cabinet. Additionally, what Trum...

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ extends cuts, dividends support the Saudi Q3 fiscal balance, Kuwait’s H1 surplus shrinks, PMIs rise across most of the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Nov 2024

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * 8 OPEC+ members, half in the GCC, delayed tapering voluntary cuts until January. * Most Gulf states mirrored the Fed’s interest rate cut, but Qatar went further, and Kuwait held flat. * Gulf leaders congratulated Trump, i...

Russian macro: In search of a new normal
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Forecast · 08 Nov 2024

In 9M24 the Russian economy continued to expand, albeit with some deceleration in recent months. However, in 2024 in total it may grow slightly faster amid a low base in 1Q23. In the currently evolved geopolitical reality, the Russian government has massively increased budgetary spending, which h...

In between a rock and a hard place on inflation
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2024 · 1 response

In the last Inflation Report of the year, the CBRT revised the inflation forecasts for end-2024 and end-2025 materially upwards to 44% (from 38%) and 21% (from 14%), respectively (both midpoints). While the former is no surprise at this point, the latter revision is a bit more significant than we...

The shekel appreciates on US election results
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Nov 2024

Ceasefires (in Gaza as well as Lebanon) do not appear to be on the immediate horizon. The ground operation on both fronts is winding down, although missiles and drones continue to land in the extended North of Israel, resulting in some damage and casualties. The immediate risk is from Iran, which...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is on course to tame its fiscal excesses
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Nov 2024

Uzbekistan's Ministry of Finance has presented a draft fiscal framework for 2025 with a headline deficit of 3% of GDP or UZS 49.3tn (US$ 3.7bn). This estimate is based on the consolidated revenues and expenditure of the state, the country's development fund, and 18 extra-budgetary funds. It will ...

Negotiations on spending cuts continue, the bill on parliamentary fund transfers may be put to a vote, and the Senate CCJ will resume the public hearings on Tax Reform next week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Nov 2024

Negotiations around spending cuts continue today. President Lula is scheduled to meet this afternoon to discuss the spending cut package with government leaders. According to the government leader in Congress, Senator Randolfe Rodrigues (PT-AP), the bill regarding parliamentary fund transfers wil...

Trump and China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 07 Nov 2024

While we don’t know the details of President-elect Trump’s plan for China, we can expect increased financial sanctions, higher tariffs, and a generally hostile climate toward trade and investment. These policies will heighten already sharp tensions within the Chinese economy and politics. The ele...

Between a Rock and a Hard Place
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Nov 2024 · 2 responses

There were no surprises in the Copom’s decision: as expected, the committee raised the target for the benchmark interest rate by 0.50 percentage points, from 10.75% to 11.25% per year, without providing further indications about its next steps or the total extent of the monetary tightening cycle....

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