Ukraine's Peace Prospects under a Trump Presidency: A View from Kyiv
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

Another sleepless night in Kyiv, with air alerts lasting over 8 hours. For more than two months, nearly every night has been interrupted, with only rare exceptions. It feels like a deliberate tactic, KGB-style, to exhaust people by depriving them of sleep. After all, the chief barbarian from the ...

Monthly output and demand data for September substantiate weak Q3 GDP figures
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

While Mr. Orbán appears to be absolutely delighted by the outcome of the US presidential election, the macro analyst is forced to be in a somewhat less enthusiastic mood today. Industrial output fell by 0.7% mom, -5.8% yoy, making the Q3 yoy growth figure -5.4%, the worst so far this year. In Jan...

The Budget Execution Board meets to discuss the fiscal measures package, Lula said in an interview that the spending cuts cannot affect the most vulnerable, and there is also pressure to increase spending
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Nov 2024

According to Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, the meeting to finalize fiscal measures has been scheduled for this morning. At that time, President Lula will meet with the ministers that comprise the Budget Execution Board (JEO). Yesterday, in an interview with Rede TV!, Lula stated that fiscal a...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2024

Interest rates keep rising, and it happens not only due to rising inflation and the key rate hikes but also due to some regulatory measures. One problem is associated with banks’ need to comply with liquidity coverage ratio (LCR), as earlier this year, the CBR started to remove “reliefs” for the ...

Discussions continue on spending cut measures, more congressional caucuses announce their support for Hugo Motta, and the CCJ extended the discussion timeline on the Tax Reform regulation bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Nov 2024 · 1 response

Internal discussions on spending cut measures continue. There is a chance these measures may be announced later this week. New congressional caucuses formally announced their support for Hugo Motta's (Republicanos-PB) candidacy yesterday: the PSB, PDT, and the PSDB/Cidadania federation. Together,...

Implications of Trump's win for the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 06 Nov 2024

Back in September, I shared some reflections on the potential implications of the US election for the GCC and wider region, as well as reviewing the history of relations between the Gulf States and the Trump and Biden Administrations. There will be lots more to unpick on this in the coming weeks ...

Bulgaria holds 7th election in three years as the Russia question divides the electorate
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2024

Bulgaria’s 7th election in the last three years has not yielded drastically different results from the last election in June, and a hung parliament is still likely, with some parties holding pro-Russian views. Bulgarian companies have been sanctioned for supporting Russia’s military, as Bulgaria'...

Haddad is expected to announce a package of measures by the end of the week, negotiations continue on the parliamentary fund transfers bill, and the Senate may vote on the carbon market bill
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Nov 2024

Yesterday, the Ministry of Finance released a statement at the end of the day, noting that during yesterday's meeting, the country’s fiscal situation was presented and understood, as well as the proposals under discussion. The measures are expected to be announced by the end of the week, although...

Inflation accelerates in October, as budgetary spending catches up with amended plan
KAZAKHSTAN · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024

The Bureau of National Statistics reported that in October, m-o-m inflation accelerated to 0.9% (versus 0.4% in September). Inflation y-o-y climbed to 8.5% (from 8.3% in September). Services prices grew by 14.3%, inflation in the non-food segment reached 7.8%, and food prices were up by a mere 4....

Erdogan declares war on Kurds
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Nov 2024

Barely had the Turkish body-politic recovered from the sacking of CHP Esenyurt (Istanbul) mayor, Prof Ahmet Ozturk, Erdogan dealt a second blow to tranquility by ordering the ouster of three Kurdish (DEM Party) mayors in the provinces of Mardin, Batman as well as the Halfeti town in the province ...

Economics: October data shows a lackluster economy as public finances deteriorate further and the inflation outlook remains murky
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024

A review of indicators published in October confirms the slow coasting of the economy and an accelerating deterioration of public finances. Industrial sector growth trickled to a mere 3 bps in August, largely in response to a sharp drop in civil engineering works, while manufacturing again grew ...

Politics: Embedded and emboldened organized crime groups with links to the government are a major problem for Sheinbaum
MEXICO · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The most striking feature of most balance sheets of security under López Obrador's government was the level of violence. Despite official statistics registering a downtrend in homicides in the past two years, for AMLO’s entire six years in office there were close to 200,000 murders and more than ...

The uncertain path to 2026 and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

The House may vote on the bill regarding the new rules for the payment of parliamentary fund transfers. In the Senate, leaders are trying to reach an agreement on the carbon market bill. Elmar Nascimento may announce his withdrawal from the candidacy for the presidency of the House. The Central B...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Nov 2024

OVERVIEW THE CONFIDENCE CRISIS STILL WAITS FOR AN ADEQUATE RESPONSE The decline of the Workers' Party (PT) in the municipal elections at the end of October added a significant element to the political landscape. The major winners were the Social Democratic Party (PSD), known as the “Kassab...

October inflation: some good, some bad news
TURKEY · Report · 04 Nov 2024

Consumer prices rose by a higher than expected 2.9%, m/m, in October, markedly exceeding consensus forecasts of around 2.5%, with the 12-month rate nevertheless falling to 48.6% from 49.4%, on the back of continuing base effects. Monthly PPI inflation was a more modest 1.3%, with the 12-month rat...