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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflationary crosscurrents
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Consumer prices rose by 27 percent month on month in May, an increase close to the 25 percent seen in April and steeper than our forecast lift of 11 percent. While factors we had anticipated worked to tame inflation, others we’d not foreseen kept it strong. As we had anticipated, money supply ...

Provisional measure on the privatization of Eletrobras should be put to a vote on Tuesday or Thursday, and four testimonies expected to take place in the COVID CPI this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Jun 2021 · 1 response

The privatization of Eletrobras should be approved before it expires on June 22. The Special Committee on Administrative Reform should have a schedule for the analysis of the proposal by Tuesday. The STF will review the constitutionality of the law that grants the Central Bank autonomy. Demonstra...

Politics: 2021 election results and outlook
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jun 2021

Mexico’s much awaited and bitterly contested June 6 mid-term elections delivered mixed results. At stake in the vote to renew the Chamber of Deputies was the future of the 4T, AMLO’s project to radically transform Mexican political and economic life. Morena and its coalition partners proclaimed t...

Lieberman moves to cancel government furlough support
ISRAEL · Report · 14 Jun 2021

The new government was sworn in today, and we expect fiscal policy to be responsible. The fiscal deficit is trending lower on strong tax revenues and lower emergency Covid aid. Trade data reflects strong growth both in exports and imports. We expect May’s CPI to reach 0.5% m/m on strong seasonali...

The CA surplus increases surprisingly
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Jun 2021

The CA surplus increased in Q121 to 5.85bn USD from 5.5bn in Q420 (sa) and 4.3bn one year ago. The increase of the trade deficit by 0.7bn USD was offset by a similar increase in the service account surplus while the secondary income (transfers) increased by 0.4bn. Many economists had expected a c...

Lieberman moves to cancel government furlough support
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Jun 2021

Politics: The new “change” government was sworn in yesterday. We think this government is a positive development for fiscal policy and stimulating growth. The new Minister of Finance is moving rapidly to cancel all emergency furlough supports for those under age 45. This will support labor partic...

Let’s talk after the summit
TURKEY · Report · 13 Jun 2021

The main story in the politics section is Mr. Erdogan’s visit to Brussels, where he will likely be grilled by EU and NATO leaders, while he finally says hello to old buddy Joe. He is until immense pressure at home at the eve of this historic visit. He and his AKP+MHP alliance are slipping in t...

US search for a base in Central Asia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2021

By September 11, 2021, there will be no more US troops in Afghanistan besides Marines at the embassy. That is Joe Biden's vow. Afghan troops will be trained by the US but not in Afghanistan. The United States has also promised not to abandon its Afghan allies as it did in 1989. How is the US to s...

Russia interest rate raised to 5.5%
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Jun 2021

On June 11 the Central Bank of Russia hiked the interest rate, as we predicted. The country is grappling with inflation. This has risen faster than CBR foresaw. It was 6% in May 2021: the highest since 2015. CBR said this could ruin the recovery.The RUB has not moved when the interest rate did. C...

​GULF WEEKLY: Strong sukuk demand, Covid up in Oman & Kuwait, Kuwait sees worst GDP contraction
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 11 Jun 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Coronavirus is surging in Oman and Kuwait and, although cases are falling in Bahrain, deaths are extremely high. * US-Iran talks will move to a sixth round, with growing expectations for a deal but probably not before next...

COVID CPI meets with a microbiologist and the former President of Anvisa today, and next week will be important for the Administrative Reform proposal and privatization of Eletrobras
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Jun 2021

Microbiologist Natália Pasternak and former President of Anvisa Dr. Cláudio Maierovitch meet with the COVID CPI today. President Bolsonaro requests that vaccinated individuals be allowed to forego masks. Paulo Guedes extends the emergency aid program. The Special Committee on Administrative Refor...

Biden’s infrastructure plan and the China threat
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Jun 2021

Biden’s new infrastructure plan is a counter-strike against China’s economic growth and investment in technology. As The Wall Street Journal noted in April, “When President Biden unveiled the plan, he mentioned China six times, including this reference: 'That’s what competition between America an...

Private jet industry booming in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Jun 2021

Sirius Aero is a private jet charter company that is thriving. The company flies people from Moscow to Courchevel, Milan, Majorca, Malaga and Nice in particular. Tickets are USD 2,000 - 10,000. This is the Shuttle Up Service.The number of private flights is 32% up from before the pandemic. Privat...

South Africa records its second largest current account surplus in the first quarter of 2021
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 Jun 2021

Today’s current account data release by the South African Reserve Bank shows that during the first quarter of 2021, South Africa’s current account recorded its fourth surplus since the first quarter of 2020 (with a deficit having been recorded only during Q2 2020). The latest surplus, which is al...

The federal budget and the current account balances strengthen in May
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Jun 2021

The Finance Ministry reported that in 5m21, the federal government spent 41.9% of the annual plan (R21.5 trln). It means that the federal budget expenditures were allocated evenly so far – spending reached R9.0 trln. Federal budget revenues exceeded R9.3 trln (49.7% of the official plan) over the...

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