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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Hi tech exports continue to support shekel appreciation
ISRAEL · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Hi-tech service exports and investments continue to expand rapidly, supportive of shekel appreciation. Private consumption has rebounded rapidly since the economy opened up.

The "rebound effect" versus the "hysteresis effect": The projections for the economy in 2021 are betting on the former, but we analyze the latter
PANAMA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

The IMF projects 12% real growth for the year, based on three factors: the vaccination rollout, the private investment recovery, and the "rebound effect" after a 17.9 percent drop in economic activity in 2020. Rating agencies and other international analysts are also projecting double-digit growt...

The marriage of the two unicorns
INDONESIA · Report · 01 Jun 2021

Indonesia has seen an interesting story about the merger of two unicorns, Gojek, a ride-hailing start-up, and Tokopedia, a marketplace platform, both of which were "unicorns" before the merger. The merger of the two companies strengthens the technology companies to reach a possible valuation of s...

Q1 GDP sightly stronger by second estimate
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Jun 2021

Q1 GDP was reported by second estimate this morning. At +2% qoq, -1.6% yoy, on sdab basis, it looks somewhat stronger than the preliminary +1.9% qoq, -1.8% yoy.The composition of Q1 GDP was reported for the first time on this occasion. This showed that domestic demand was much weaker than GDP, wi...

Russia to allow flights to UK but prolongs Turkey flight ban
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 01 Jun 2021

On June 1 Moscow announced that flights to and from Austria, Hungary, Morocco, Croatia, Lebanon and Luxembourg shall recommence on June 10. That will bring the number of countries with regular flights to and from Russia up to 36.However, travel restrictons on Turkey and Tanzania shall remain in f...

Rates remain unchanged with a more upbeat tone
ISRAEL · In Brief · 01 Jun 2021

Rates remained on hold yesterday and the announcement was rather upbeat, noting the rapid opening up of the economy while the escalation in violence had only a limited impact on activity. There is a significant increase in private consumption since the opening up of the economy. GDP numbers in Q1...

Covid Watch Postponed
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 May 2021

Dear Colleagues:As we await the outcome of a cabinet meeting that is taking place now, which is expected to announce the new normalization measures and the calendar, we have decided to postpone our Covid Watch to tomorrow.Thank you for your understanding.Murat Ucer/Atilla Yesilada

​Q1 GDP: Some signs of a painful transformation?
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2021

The Turkish economy grew by a higher than expected 7%, y/y, in the first quarter of 2021, and 1.7%, q/q (Graph 1). The information content of year-on-year data in terms of showing the true state of the economy is especially misleading nowadays, given the strong base effects from last year -- and ...

National Holiday on Thursday, Administrative and Tax reforms in Congress and Dr. Nise Yamaguchi testifies in the COVID CPI
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 May 2021

Congress meets on Tuesday to analyze presidential vetoes and reallocation of funds. The Ministry of the Economy is analyzing possible bills for Tax Reform. Arthur Lira creates the Special Committee on Administrative Reform. Defendor of hydroxychloroquine, Dr. Yamaguchi, testifies in the COVID CPI...

EU companies see best prospects for Russia since 2012
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 31 May 2021

On May 28 the Association of European Businesses (AEB) published its survey. Foreign firms in Russia believe that turbo charged growth will occur. The absence of a second lockdown has been a boon.The Central Bank of Russia says that GDP will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2021.The AE...

Russia and Belarus discuss unity
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2021

On May 29 the presidents of the two countries met at Sochi. Putin expressed support for Lukashenko who is embroiled in controversy over his forcing down of a Ryanair flight.Putin said that the two nations are creating a ''union state.'' Lukashenko said that the West is causing trouble in Belarus....

Hi tech exports continue to support shekel appreciation
ISRAEL · In Brief · 30 May 2021

Economic indicators continue to point to a strong recovery Hi-tech service exports increased by 28% saar in Q121. Credit card purchases increased by 18% from January to April. Initial data for May point to a modest contraction (sa). Consumer confidence remained elevated in the 1st half of May, sl...

Gazprom earning up as it plans 703 m tower
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2021

On May 29 the Russian gas giant announced it recovered i Q1 in 2021. It made a profit of USD 6.1 billion. That was against a profit of USD 1.8 billion for the whole of 2020. Sales in Q1 2021 up 30% YoY.Most Gazprom exports go to the EU. Profits from these sales were 25% up in Q1. Prices in RUB we...

Another hack on the US suspected to be Russian backed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 May 2021

On May 28 a huge hack occurred in the USA. Government agencies, think tanks, consultants and other bodies were attacked. The group who committed the attack is called Nobelium. The organizations attacked are foreign policy ones. It seems to have been an intelligence gathering exercise.The US Cyber...

The link between EU's ORD and ÁKK/MNB policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 May 2021

On May 27, the EU Commission announced the approval of its Own Resources Decision (ORD) by all 27 member state parliaments. ORD will enable the EU to collect from member states annual fiscal contributions up to 2% of GNI, instead of the maximum 1.4% allowed so far, with a view to generating the r...

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