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Politics: Reform impasse deepens as Sheinbaum ignores court and moves to ban judicial review of reforms
MEXICO · Report · 28 Oct 2024

Just two weeks ago, we provided an account of the serious conflicts generated by passage of the judicial reform proposals championed by the previous and current presidents of Mexico and the constitutional crisis it had ignited. Since then, the crisis has steadily deepened, fanned by the increasi...

Depending on the Kindness of Strangers
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Oct 2024 · 1 response

Recent behavior of the U.S. dollar and interest rates indicates that external factors' contribution to the appreciation of Brazil's exchange rate are likely to be lower than expected. Along with data showing robust activity and labor market conditions, increased odds of Donald Trump winning the p...

The CBR hikes the key rate by 200 bps as inflation remains high
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

Last Friday, the Central Bank hiked the key rate to 21%, well above market expectations. In October, inflation y-o-y will likely be about the same as in September, i.e., 8.6% or slightly higher. Note that inflation fell to low single-digit levels in 1H23 but has accelerated since then, driven by ...

Municipal election runoff results, the legislative agenda post-elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2024

With the municipal elections concluded, Congress resumes its activities. The Senate's Constitution and Justice Committee (CCJ) will begin a series of debates on tax reform starting Tuesday, October 29, and continuing through November 14. Senator Ângelo Coronel (PSD-BA) is expected to introduce a ...

Chile's local elections: Implications
CHILE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

A year out from its next presidential vote, Chile held elections on Sunday for local authorities. These include governors, mayors and city council members. Local elections are seen as a barometer of political strength. On Sunday night President Gabriel Boric said that the results were “sweet and ...

Challenges in going digital while future-proofing banknotes
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Oct 2024

Working for greater digitalization, the BSP initiated the formulation and implementation of key policies and regulations, including the creation of the National Payment Retail System as well as the establishment of automated clearing houses (ACH), namely, InstaPay and PESONET, electronic fund tra...

On pause
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Oct 2024

Nicolás Maduro, who is hugely unpopular, is heading toward his January 10th swearing-in ceremony for a third presidential term guided by two strategic objectives: to ensure cohesion within his ruling group and to build renewed "legitimacy" via tighter institutional control. He counts on repressio...

The MDB and PSD elected the most mayors in state capitals, succession in the Lower House takes center stage after the municipal elections, and there will be 11 public hearings on Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2024

The MDB and PSD emerged from the 2024 municipal elections as the parties that elected the most mayors in state capitals, with five each. With the conclusion of the 2024 municipal elections, succession in the National Congress takes center stage on the political agenda. On Tuesday (October 29), th...

Markets reflect optimism regarding Iranian de-escalation
ISRAEL · Report · 28 Oct 2024

1. Likely de-escalation vis-à-vis Iran supported markets on Sunday. 2. Markets will react to the 2025 fiscal framework to be decided upon towards the end of the week, which may be disappointing. 3. Rapid monetary growth on the back of fiscal expansion poses an inflationary threat.

With $50 billion incoming, what’s next for Ukraine?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

G7 leaders have finalized a $50 billion loan agreement for Ukraine, backed by profits from frozen Russian assets, according to the G7 Finance Ministers' Statement on the Extraordinary Revenue Acceleration (ERA) Loan Initiative released on October 25. The funds will be fully disbursed to Ukraine b...

Cautious optimism regarding Iran de-escalation fuels markets
ISRAEL · In Brief · 28 Oct 2024

Geopolitics: On Friday night, Israel attacked three different sets of targets in Iran. The primary target, Iran’s anti-aircraft systems, seem to have been largely destroyed. The second set of targets involved missiles that were positioned to strike Israel potentially. Lastly, the operation struck...

Politics gets chaotic, economics business as usual
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2024

In yet another startling development to mark the end of a remarkable October, MHP leader Bahceli invited the incarcerated leader of the PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, to address Kurdish party DEM’s parliamentary caucus, raising hopes for a second Peace Process. If PKK declares a cease-fire and renounces v...

Georgian Elections-First Thoughts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2024

The much-anticipated Parliamentary Elections took place yesterday in a much calmer environment than thought and the Central Election Commission has announced that Georgian Dream has confidently won. With 99.9% of the votes counted, the results are the following: Georgian Dream" - 54.93% with 89 m...

Another weather devastation hits Manila
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Oct 2024

Despite the government of President Bongbong Marcos spending about half a trillion pesos for flood control projects in just over two years, and there are about 5,000 of them, nothing seems to have come out of such massive public spending. Those projects were nothing to tropical storm Kristine, wi...

S&P affirmed its BBB-/Stable sovereign rating for Hungary yesterday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Oct 2024

This was very much in line with our expectation, but apparently not so with everyone else's. The fact that EURHUF ran slightly above 404 (yes, this page can be found on the internet) ahead of the decision shows quite clearly just how much the government needs to watch its steps with regard to com...

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