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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Imports rally
CHINA · Report · 27 Apr 2021

GDP was up 18.3% y/y in Q1, and up 10.3% from Q1 2019, with an annualized growth rate of around 5%. In this report, we mostly use Q1 2019 as the benchmark period, because the major shock from the pandemic in February 2020 makes Q1 2020 data hardly comparable. The adjusted growth rate was lower th...

Edging forward
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Apr 2021

Opacity in political conditions in El Salvador continued during April, the last month of the current Congress. What happens from May on, when the official party will be dominant in Congress, remains to be seen. The ample majority obtained by the president’s New Ideas party and its allies in the F...

The Covid Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) will be installed in the Senate today
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The Covid Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI) will be installed in the Senate today. Following an initial two-week organizational period, the CPI’s investigation should begin to intensify. Yesterday, the President of the House, Arthur Lira, and the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, met ...

Ukraine issues $1.25 billion Eurobonds amid withdrawal from local securities
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Apr 2021

MinFin is in progress of placing $1.25 billion Eurobonds with 6.875% yield according to Interfax news agency. We did not expect the authorities to start placement that early given “no progress with the IMF”. However, dried up inflow of foreign cash into local bonds and even withdrawal of non-resi...

Navalny's organization's activities outlawed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2021

On April 26 a Russian court banned all activities at the offices of the Foundation Against Corruption (FBK). Journalists who reported demonstrations in favor of Navalny have been arrested. There is a legal case to declare FBK extremist. If this succeeds then FBK will be forbidden.Foreigners who p...

UK extends sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Apr 2021

On April 26 London announced further sanctions on 22 individuals from Russia and other countries such as South Africa and Sudan. This involves asset freezes and restrictions on businesses associated with the named people.14 Russian allegedly concerted in a tax fraud worth USD 230 million of Russi...

​Closed for Business through 16 May
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Apr 2021 · 1 response

Hours after we sent our weekly Covid-19 Update to editors,President Erdogan declared a national lockdown from 7 pm Thursday (29 April) though 5 am Monday, 17 May.His goal is to reduce daily cases from 38K to 5K and rescue the critical tourism season.While the lockdown is almost certain to drastic...

New Positive Steps Forward
ECUADOR · In Brief · 26 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The bill in favor of dollarization was finally approved in first and second debates in the Assembly. Legislators from CREO, Social Christian Party, Alianza Pais and other from independent political blocks were in favor, and --as expected --correistas voted against. With this achievement, we expec...

New challenges for political articulation and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2021

The Pandemic Parliamentary Inquiry Committee (CPI) will be installed on Tuesday. Once installed, the Committee will analyze requests for testimony. This week, the deadline for the functioning of the Tax Reform Committee expires. In the Federal Supreme Court, important cases are on the docket, inc...

Economics: The “new” Pemex Business Plan
MEXICO · Report · 26 Apr 2021

Last April 6, Pemex presented its Business Plan for 2021–2025, an update of the one that was published in mid-2019. And while CEO Octavio Romero assures that its central purpose is to save the company and allow it to reassume its leadership role, what is still sorely lacking is any coherent appro...

The Rupture of the Spending Cap
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The reflections of the second wave of the pandemic on the “underprivileged” population had already led to the approval of a new round of the Emergency Relief program, to the tune of R$ 44 billion, which will not be computed for the effect of the spending cap, and in the budget enacted into law on...

Covid reopening may prove too much too early
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2021

From Saturday, April 24, the open-air terraces of bars and restaurants were allowed to open. According to the official explanation, the factor prompting this step was that the number of domestic citizens with at least one shot of Covid vaccine had exceeded 3.5 million or 36% of the whole populati...

Politics: AMLO’s moves to tighten institutional grip
MEXICO · Report · 26 Apr 2021 · 1 response

Just as the Senate was preparing to vote on President López Obrador’s judicial reform package April 15, a lawmaker quietly slipped in a clearly unconstitutional transitory article that would change the composition of the highest judicial bodies in the land. It would extend by two years the terms ...

Turkey Covid Watch - April 26, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 26 Apr 2021

Confirmed cases seem to have reached a peak and began declining this week, as we had surmised last week, though they are still very elevated. Hospitalizations and deaths continue to rise, but should also reach a peak soon given the usual lags between diagnosis and hospitalization. Vaccinations se...

A busy week ahead in Brasília
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2021

This will be a busy week in Brasília. The source of the government’s worries, the Covid Parliamentary Committee of Inquiry (CPI), is expected to be fully installed by Tuesday, April 27. On Friday, April 30, the tax reductions on fuel, meant to appease truck drivers who are unhappy with increasing...

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