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Turkey Covid Watch - April 19, 2021
TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The number of daily reported Covid cases continues its rapid increase, while daily deaths also surge, both reaching new peaks of the third wave in Turkey. Additional restrictions for the holy month of Ramadan have been announced as a response to the recently soaring numbers. However, many health ...

The 2021 Budget will be concluded this week
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Apr 2021

The 2021 Budget will be concluded this week, as the deadline for presidential sanction is Thursday, April 22. President Bolsonaro is expected to veto some parts of the proposal, which should be analyzed by Congress today or tomorrow. The government is also considering submitting a bill that allow...

Pent-up demand impacts inflation, while rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · Report · 19 Apr 2021

*Inflation surprised slightly on the upside due to the impact from pent-up demand as the economy opened up. *On the other hand, housing rental prices moderated, supporting a moderation in core inflation to 0.2% y/y from 0.3% last month. *We are forecasting inflation of 0.9% in the next 12...

Good progress on Covid vaccination, but political risk is rising
HUNGARY · Forecast · 19 Apr 2021 · 1 response

The Covid epidemic really looks like a roller-coaster. In response to the restrictions introduced in early March, its third wave reached a maximum within a few weeks, and daily new infections turned sharply down in the first half of April. However, so far the curve has fallen just a little below ...

Pent-up demand impacts inflation, while rental prices moderate
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

Highlights of the weekly macro review: Inflation in March surprises slightly on the upside The CPI in March reached 0.6% m/m and 0.2% y/y. We (and the market) had expected 0.5% m/m. Pent-up demand was felt on domestic vacation prices (9.7% m/m) and cultural events and parties (3.7%). This was off...

It was sort of a dull week, for a change
TURKEY · Report · 18 Apr 2021

Domestic politics are utterly boring for investors and multinational businesses, and suicidally depressive for those who make a living covering them. The never-changing fact of life is the steady decline in poll ratings of AKP+MHP, attended by ever-less effective attempts to spin the agenda to im...

A second wave of Covid-19 in India
INDIA · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

Through 2020, sero-prevalence data was showing a large-scale spread of the disease within India. Alongside this, a large surge of Covid-19 related deaths was not visible. The analysis of excess deaths data showed that the fingerprints of Covid-19 in death -- male, elderly, co-morbidities, urban -...

Czechs kick out 18 Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Apr 2021

On April 17 Prague declared the Russian diplomats PNG on the basis that they were committing espionage. It is suspected that they caused an explosion in 2014 at an ammunition warehouse. Two people were killed in the blast.The government acknowledged the move would seriously hamper relations with ...

Economic recovery underway, amid higher inflation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 16 Apr 2021

For the first time since the start of the pandemic, the Dominican Republic in February showed positive y/y growth, of 1.1%, which offset the -1.8% contraction seen in January. Accumulated growth in January-February 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, was -0.3%. The expansion, mainly in con...

​GULF WEEKLY: Aramco sells pipelines, US-UAE arms deal approved, Kuwaiti former PM detained
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Apr 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * The IMF sees the fiscal breakevens improving relative to 2019 in all bar Kuwait and Bahrain. * It forecasts a surprisingly wide range of oil and non-oil recoveries across the region. * Israeli sabotage overshadowed US-Ira...

The STF confirmed Minister Fachin's decision and annulled the convictions against former President Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Apr 2021

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) confirmed Minister Edson Fachin’s decision and annulled the convictions against former President Lula, maintaining his eligibility. Lula should remain eligible unless he is convicted in another case before the deadline for the election’s candidate registration on A...

Weak retail sales & construction data in February
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2021

Retail sales fell by a rather weak 5.2% yoy in February, following -2% yoy in the previous month. To a great extent, this was a lockdown / 3rd wave impact, i.e. greatly Covid-related. Even though the government tightened Covid restrictions only from March 8, the 3rd wave of the epidemic was steep...

Impact assessment of US sanctions on Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2021

On April 15 the US announced a new raft of sanctions. Biden also suggested meeting Putin in person. Moscow is spinning the suggestion as a win for them. The US said sanctions were due to malevolent cyberactivity, corruption, the poisoning of Navalny with a chemical weapon and the broader attack o...

Poland declares 3 Russian diplomats PNG and UK summons ambassador
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2021

On April 15 the Poles expelled Russian diplomats on the basis that they have committed hostile acts against Poland. Warsaw also declared its solidarity with the USA.In the United Kingdom the Russian Ambassador was summoned to be dressed down over alleged malign activity.

Russia claims much more of the Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Apr 2021

On March 31 Russia put a claim to the UN that more areas of the continental shelf belong to Russia. This includes the Gakkel Ridge, the Lomonosov Ridge and the Canadian Basin. Russia's claims now encroach on areas long claimed by Canada and Denmark.The US estimates that 13% of the world's undisco...

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