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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP surprises on the upside, labor productivity surges in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 21 Feb 2021

GDP contracted by 2.4% in 2020 GDP per capita contracted by 4.1%, relatively modest in light of extended periods of closures. Israel enjoyed two drivers: Hi-tech service exports (software, etc.) expanded by 18% in 2020, and a strong net negative tourist account. Lack of flights abroad supported d...

Words vs. deeds
TURKEY · Report · 21 Feb 2021 · 1 response

At home, President Erdogan ordered gradual and locale-by-locale re-opening of the Turkish economy in March, which is an extremely risky gamble in the face of 7.5K new cases per day and still not enough vaccines at hand. He is counting on 105 million doses of some type of vaccine to become availab...

Moscow constructed more skyscraper housing than ever in 2020
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Feb 2021

On February 16 a report by Capital Group showed that construction boomed in Moscow in 2020. Construction was allowed for all but the first few weeks of lockdown.860 000 square meters of housing was builty in skyscrapers. That is 17 200 ordinary apartments. A residential skyscraper is defined as 3...

CORRECTION: Telegram trying to raise capital
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2021

The messaging app seeks to raise USD 1 billion through the issuance of 5-year bonds to a restricted number of investors. Kommersant newspaper reported on February 18 that Telegram set the minimum investment value USD 50 million. The company might cut it to USD 10 million if needs be. The aim is t...

Ukraine short of energy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2021

Ukraine is struggling to produce sufficiently electricity. Coal stocks are very low. Nuclear power plants cannot work at full capacity owing to long overdue repairs.A severe winter resulted in power usage 6.5% higher than usual in February 2021. DTEK (an energy company) blamed market manipulation...

Georgian PM replaced and protests erupt
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2021

On February 18 Prime Minister Georgi Gakharia resigned. The president appointed Irakli Garibashvili. However, this has yet to be ratified by Parliament.On February 19 irate oppositionist crowds gathered in front of Parliament: 20 arrests followed. Protestors said the 2020 election was fixed.The l...

Downbeat near term, but vaccine rollout offers upside
PERU · Report · 19 Feb 2021

Less than two months before Election Day on April 11th, calling the results remains challenging. Although 16 political parties successfully registered their candidates on time for the presidential and congressional elections, the Jurado Nacional de Elecciones (JNE, the National Election Tribunal)...

​GULF WEEKLY: US open to EU-Iran mediation, Sharjah nears junk status, Kuwait suspends parliament
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 19 Feb 2021

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines include: * The US welcomed an EU proposal to mediate with Iran. This comes days before Iran is planning to limit nuclear inspections and after an attack on a US base in Iraq by an Iran-linked militia. * Oil hit $65 and could ...

European Court of Human Rights demands Navalny's release
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2021

On February 18 the ECHR said that Alexey Navalny should be set free because he is in peril in custody. Russia has refused to comply with the court order. The Russian Constitution states that domestic law trumps international law. Russia is a member of the Council of Europe, a signatory of the Eur...

Russia acclaims Myanmar coup
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Feb 2021

On February 17 Moscow voiced its approval of the new military regime in Myanmar (Burma). China by contrast has registered its anxiety about the situation. There is unrest in Myanmar since Aung San Suu Kyi was deposed. Defense Minister Shoigu visited Myanmar days before the coup d'etat. He was rum...

​Economic activity continues to rebound in January
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2021

Rosstat reported that retail sales were down by a mere 0.1% in January, while in 4Q20 and 2020 as a whole they were down by 2.8% and 4.1% y-o-y. Food retail sales were down in January by 1.0% y-o-y (by 3.9% and 2.6% in 4Q20 and 2020 as a whole). Non-food retail was up by 0.9% in January y-o-y (an...

Provincial data
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Feb 2021

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Although Beijing will probably not announce a GDP growth target during the Two Sessions this March, nearly every province in China has already done so, with an implied national growth rate for the year of 6.8 percent. • A recent BIS research report s...

What’s behind the latest attack on Ant?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 18 Feb 2021

The Wall Street Journal published an article blaming the cancellation of the Ant Group IPO on corrupt insider dealings in the allocation of shares. While the article is fascinating, it serves too neatly Beijing’s interest in clipping the wings of Jack Ma and Alibaba. The documents conveniently le...

​MPC: No change, as expected
TURKEY · Report · 18 Feb 2021

At today’s rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee/CBRT left the policy rate unchanged at 17% (simple), as expected. Regarding the content of the statement, as far as we can see, two changes are worth highlighting from the previous one. One is the indirect or de facto acknowledgmen...

The new emergency relief and monetary normalization
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Feb 2021

​The first point we analyze in this report is the need for the new edition of the Emergency Relief program to be much less generous than in 2020, which had a price tag of 4% of GDP. In 2020 it expanded the retail sales and attenuated the GDP decline. But in face of the contagion acceleration and ...

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