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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian limp growth means country will not reach advanced economy status
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2021

On February 11 the IMF stated that Russia's anemic economy means that the country will not achieve advanced status. Growth was a poor 1.3% even before coronavirus struck. The economy contracted by 3.1%: less than almost any other major economy. That is partly attributable to the absence of a seco...

The Russian budget posted a small deficit in January as expenditures were up y-o-y
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

Federal budget revenues dropped by 3.7% y-o-y in January amid 3.3% y-o-y growth of expenditures. Oil-and-gas revenues were down by 19.7%, while non-oil-and-gas revenues were up by 6.7% y-o-y. In January, the government collected 8.0% and spent 7.8% of the annual plan. The result looks good as usu...

Troubled Waters Ahead
ECUADOR · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

When 99.67% of the compiled votes have been counted, the difference between Guillermo Lasso from CREO (19.59%) and Yaku Perez (19.70%) has shrunk around 0.2% since yesterday. There are still 3.53% of compiled votes being revised and counted (close to 400,000 individual votes pending of being veri...

Russia declines to attend European security seminar
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

On February 9 Moscow turned down an offer to take part in a security conference with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The OSCE comprises 57 countries. Since 1991 Russia has always taken part. The refusal is a symptom of Russian disaffection, and Moscow stated that a...

​Minfin pushes OFZ yield curve up
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021 · 1 response

Today the Finance Ministry conducted three primary OFZ auctions and raised R49.4 bln (in three placements), the best result since the beginning of the year. However, the cost that the borrower paid looks high. As a reminder, last week the Ministry cancelled the placement of fixed-rate paper due t...

​“The Grand Bargaining” officially started yesterday
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

We have been priming our audience for the “Day of Reckoning” between Biden Administration and Erdogan Regime. The presence of S-400s on Turkish soil, a NATO member, was unacceptable to NATO and US. Unless Ankara took a step back, Biden is likely to tighten existing CAATSA sanctions month by month...

The government is struggling with mass vaccination
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2021

PM Orbán and his environment keeps proudly referring to the fact that in December 2020, exactly 4.5 million people were found by the Statistical Office in some sort of employment, only 14 thousand short of the level recorded one year earlier. That is a great achievement indeed, but unfortunately ...

The future looks clearer, but risks persist
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 09 Feb 2021 · 1 response

The Dominican Republic began 2021 feeling the onslaught of the second wave of COVID-19, internally evidenced by the increase in the number of infections and deaths, and externally by greater restrictions on international mobility - the most extreme expression of which is the ban on flights from C...

St Petersburg Exchange booming
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

Reddit has helped investment make St Petersburg (SPB) become the largest exchange in Russia. SPB trading reached USD 36.1 billion in January 2021. That was ahead of Moscow's bourse at USD 30.2 billion according to Bloomberg.SPB is mostly about Russian retail investors. SPB enables them to purchas...

Turkmenistan hosted Taliban talks
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

On February 6 Ashgabad had a Taliban delegation in town for negotiations. The Turkmen Government routinely denounces internal dissidents as Islamic extremist even if they are totally secular. But the government is in talks with the Taliban because Turkmenistan borders Afghanistan. The issues were...

EU states to expel Russian diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

On February 8 Germany, Sweden and Poland announced that each were expelling one Russian diplomat. This is hitting back for Russia's expelling a diplomat from each of those three countries. The EU diplomats were expelled for attending a pro Navalny rally.EU foreign policy commissioner Josip Borrel...

Russia’s current account widens in January which creates a solid base for economic recovery
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2021

Russia’s current account and trade surplus widened in January relative to previous months. The current account surplus reached $6.8bn, while the trade surplus was at $9.4 bn. In 4Q20 as a whole, the current account surplus at $5.5bn, and the trade surplus was at $21.5 bn. Based on the CBR prelimi...

Politics: Security problems intersect with vote
MEXICO · Report · 08 Feb 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed the country’s grave problems of insecurity off the front pages and the lead segments of news programs. This lack of attention also reflects the current government’s decision to push public security concerns to the back burner and a society that has grown numb to s...

The timing of structural reforms and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Feb 2021

The government may send Congress a bill on the taxation of fuel. In the House, the agenda includes proposals on Central Bank autonomy, over-indebtedness and currency exchange laws. The installation of the Joint Budget Committee is also on the agenda. Discussions about emergency aid payments conti...

Priorities and Uncertainties: Fiscal and Monetary Policies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Feb 2021

Brazil continues to be under the influence of forces acting in opposite directions – the widening and increasing pace of vaccination and a rising number of Covid cases – whose result will determine how much the economy decelerates in the first quarter of 2021. In this circumstance, a few days ago...

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