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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

An Unexpected Second Electoral Round
ECUADOR · In Brief · 08 Feb 2021 · 1 response

When 97.5% of the votes have been counted, Andres Arauz maintains an undisputable first place on Sunday's presidential elections with close to 32% of the votes. On the other hand, the second place is still disputed between Yaku Perez (19.8%) and Guillermo Lasso (19.6%). This difference has been f...

Economics: Postponing fiscal reckoning with no plan
MEXICO · Report · 08 Feb 2021

The administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has been proactive in fiscal matters, but with a decidedly short-run focus that was clearly on display in the 2020 fiscal results. For starters, the government delivered a real-term 0.8% increase in federal government tax revenues last y...

Disposable income increases by 2.3% in 2020
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Feb 2021

Disposable income in 2020 increased by over 2% due to government transfers. M1 is up 31% y/y in December due to a limited ability to consume; this is likely to create pent-up demand and some inflationary pressure. The Bank of Israel purchased 6.8bn USD in January, but in the short term, Israel’s ...

Hungary buys Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Feb 2021

On February 7 Hungary licensed Sputnik V, and 40,000 doses of it have already arrived in the country. Hungary has ordered a further 2 million doses. Hungary is an EU member state but it has fractious relations with the rest of the EU. The Prime Minister is notably pro-Russian. No other EU country...

Disposable income increases by 2.3% in 2020
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Feb 2021

Highlights: Disposable income increased in 2020 due to government support Total wages paid declined by 3.8%, but government support to the unemployed totaled 27bn ILS (through November). M1 increased by 32% in 2020 with less opportunity to consume. This pent-up demand is likely to support some in...

Focusing on the essentials
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2021 · 1 response

We urge our readers to keep their eyes firmly focused on the essentials, amidst the feel-good mood encompassing the EMs and Turkey. The nation is nowhere close to reaching herd immunity via vaccination, as new strains are running rampant in the population. Each day with lockdowns and shop clos...

Russia mulls investment anonymity for Crimea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Feb 2021 · 2 responses

Moscow is thinking about allowing those who put money into Crimea to keep their identities secret. The government is eager to generate more business on the disputed peninsula. In 2014 Russia took (or, as they would say, "liberated") Crimea from Ukraine. The US and EU imposed sanctions on business...

Turkey and Azerbaijan conduct combined military manoeuvres on Armenian frontier
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 2 the two countries' armies exercised in eastern Turkey. This was close to the frontier with Armenia. Turkish troops are openly stationed in Azerbaijan. Up till now Azerbaijan has not sent a significant number of troops to Turkey.The ostensible reason for the drill was to practice fig...

Ukraine to receive 12 million doses of the vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 5 President Zelensky announced that his country will be given millions more doses of AstraZeneca and Novavax. The vaccines are being purchased from India mostly. The first consignment will arrive in late February 2021.The government has been castigated for not obtaining Western vaccin...

Russia fines nickel giant USD 2 billion
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Feb 2021

On February 5 a court fined Nornickel for the environmental disaster it caused in 2020 when 21,000 tonnes of diesel was spilled in the Krasnoyarsk Region. It was the worst disaster to hit the Arctic.The fine imposed is a record. Nornickel has argued the fine should be only USD 280 million. The ac...

Russia declares several EU diplomats PNG
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2021

On February 4 Moscow announced the expulsion of certain Swedish, Polish and German diplomats. The diplomats supposedly attended unauthorized protests on January 23. The protests were for the release of Alexei Navalny. All demonstrations in Russia require police permission. The EU's foreign minist...

Russia political/pandemic update: Epidemiological situation stabilizes, politics gets more intriguing
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2021

In the aftermath of the New Year holiday period, the country’s daily registered cases of newly infected people fell from around 27K (where they were at the very end of 2020) to 16-17K as of early February. Even though the authorities did not tighten restrictions, it looks as though Russians mostl...

GULF WEEKLY: Biden focuses on Yemen, Kuwait on negative outlook, BP sells Oman gas stake
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Feb 2021 · 1 response

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Restrictions expanded across the region in response to the current Covid wave. * Oil has risen to $59, the most in nearly a year, supported by the voluntary Saudi cuts. *...

GDP set to grow more than 7% in 2021
CHINA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

We forecast Chinese GDP to rise 7% in 2021, less than our peers’ forecasts of around 8%. Our forecast is based on the global economic uncertainty brought on by the pandemic, and the significant chance that China will take countercyclical measures to address structural reforms. GDP climbed 2.3% y/...

2021–2022 Outlook: Crony Capitalism
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 05 Feb 2021

This report lays out our central scenario outlook for 2021–2022, which we call Crony Capitalism. It assumes that the regime stays in power and keeps its policy framework essentially unchanged. Economic policy is pragmatic to a degree, but the government is unable to meaningfully improve expectati...

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