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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30 -
Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Apr 28
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - PANAMA IN FOCUS: US RELATIONS, CANAL STRATEGY AND FI...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
"Cristinomics" conditions the IMF negotiations
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Jan 2021
The government has always been vague regarding the economic model it has in mind or how it would achieve its goal of simultaneously supporting domestic consumption while remaining a competitive exporter. In short, how can it spur domestic absorption while seeking a balance of payment inflows to f...
Q&A on politics and the economy
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2021 · 1 response
Support for both President Erdogan and the AKP-MHP alliance seem to be declining in the polls, as the epidemic flares up once again, while poverty and unemployment are wreaking havoc across the nation. The base-case scenario is Turkey remaining under restrictions through the second quarter of the...
Iran buying Russian vaccine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 30 Jan 2021
On January 30 Iran announced that it will receive Sputnik V doses on February 4. Iran has already approved the vaccine. There will be further shipments later in February. Iran and Russia have had a fairly warm relationship for the last 30 years.Iran has refused to countenance vaccines made in the...
Sberbank investing USD 400 million in online retail
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2021
On January 28 Russia's biggest bank announced it aims to become the country's main online retailer, too. It has signed a memorandum of intent to increase its stake in Goods.Ru. The bank wants to buy an extra stake in Goods.Ru from M.Video-Eldorado Group for USD 52 million.Sber's stake in Goods.Ru...
OFZ issuance: poor start of the year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 29 Jan 2021
The first month of the year 2021 was not fruitful for the Finance Ministry in terms of the borrowing on the local market. Since the beginning of the year, the government has managed to place OFZ worth only R61.1 bln, which is a very poor result given the annual plan of R3.7 trln. Demand from inte...
GULF WEEKLY: Saudi bonds and new governor, Kuwaiti budget and reappointed prime minister
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 29 Jan 2021 · 1 response
A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Increased vaccine supplies are on the way as Covid cases continue to rise. * The US and Iran insist the other comply first, but Rob Malley’s appointment points to a deal. ...
Central America and Caribbean Outlook 2021 - Post-pandemic progress - Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Dominican Republic and Panama
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2021
Our live webinar features Francisco de Paula Gutierrez, Felix Delgado, Magdalena Lizardo and Marco Fernandez as they discuss their countries’ fiscal, macro and political prospects for the coming year. This webinar was moderated by Esteban Tamayo, Citi Research Economist for Colombia, Peru and the...
Russian private equity firm attracts USD 260 million to digital fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021
On January 21 Kommersant reported that Elbrus Capital's investment fund for the Russian digital sector is doing very well. It is the third fund launched by the investment house, which has tech as its niche. Elbrus specializes in former USSR countries. Elbrus' aim is to raise USD 600 million by th...
Essential CIS Politics: January 2021
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 28 Jan 2021
• Russia is slowing the spread of the coronavirus, distributing vaccines as Moscow reopens. • Russia’s gold reserves have risen in value significantly as the RUB remains undervalued. • In Kyrgyzstan a new president was elected. • In Kazakhstan the ruling party won elections marred by a total l...
Russia’s economic performance has seemingly improved in 4Q20, albeit accelerated inflation suppressed real retail sales
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021
According to Rosstat’s preliminary estimates, Russia’s retail sales contracted by 4.1% in 2020. Food retail was down by 2.6%, while non-food retail dropped by 5.2%. These numbers are generally in line with expectations. As inflation accelerated in 4Q20, retail sales decreased in this quarter more...
Russian private equity firm attracts USD 260 million to digital fund
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021
On January 21 Kommersant reported that Elbrus Capital's investment fund for the Russian digital sector is doing very well. It is the third fund launched by the investment house which has tech as its niche. Elbrus specializes in former USSR countries. Elbrus' aim is to raise USD 600 million by the...
Yuan faces further appreciation pressure
CHINA · Report · 28 Jan 2021
Chinese GDP rose 2.3% y/y in 2020. The slower growth mainly occurred in Q1 and Q2. Growth rose to 4.9% y/y in Q3, and 6.5% y/y in Q4, reaching the normal levels. Industrial output saw a similar GDP trend, and grew 2.8% y/y from 2019. Specifically, output rose 7.1% y/y in Q4, up 1.2 pps from Q4 20...
Recovery outlook: neither bad nor good
UKRAINE · Forecast · 28 Jan 2021
Ukraine survived 2020 rather smoothly, compared to the rest of the world. Economic growth dropped by 4.5% y/y, which is a very good result for Ukraine in the storm of global crisis. Incomes continued to grow. The current account balance reached an astonishing surplus of $6.9 billion, or 4.6% of ...
Inflation Report: Hawkish rhetoric continues
TURKEY · Report · 28 Jan 2021
The CBRT has released the first Inflation Report of the year, according to which the Bank, as broadly expected, kept the end-2021 and 2022 inflation forecasts unchanged at 9.4% (midpoint of 7.3%-11.5%) and at 7% (midpoint of 4.6%-9.4%), respectively. Inflation is expected to ease to the official ...
4Q20 GDP: improving but weak
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Jan 2021
As expected, the contraction in GDP declined from double digits in 2Q and 3Q to 8.3% yoy in 4Q following looser quarantine restrictions and increased supply of public transport. The 4Q level of activity was a 5.6% improvement over 3Q on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Nevertheless, the weakness of t...