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US asks EU to stop Nord Stream 2
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Dec 2020

On December 4 Washington DC asked EU countries to block the undersea gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. The US fears that Russia will have energy blackmail over Europe. Congress is mulling more sanctions to be passed in January.Work on the pipeline stopped 12 months ago. US sanctions on any ent...

Parliament approves criminal responsibility for inaccurate declarations, multiple loopholes have been created
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Dec 2020

Yesterday, on Dec 4th Verkhovna Rada voted in the law which returns criminal responsibility for inaccurate declarations. The relevant provision of the Criminal Code had been previously canceled by the Constitutional court. However, the newly approved version of the law creates multiple loopholes ...

Legal disaster for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2020

On December 4 the Dutch Supreme Court ruled that shareholders in Yukos can continue their case seeking USD 50 billion in compensation. The court rejected Russia's bid to suspend enforcement of an earlier judgment. There will be another hearing in the Dutch Supreme Court in early 2021. In late Nov...

OPEC+ agrees to increase production
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Dec 2020

On December 3 OPEC+ said that oil output will increase in January 2021 by 500 000 bpd. That is a change to its previously agreed timetable for quota relaxation.Saudi Arabia had wanted a 2 million bpd increase. Russia wanted to only raise production once oil prices reached close to their pre-coron...

Venezuela webinar featuring Ruth Krivoy - Is Biden a game changer for Venezuela?
VENEZUELA · Report · 04 Dec 2020

In our webinar, Ruth Krivoy discusses the implications of a Biden US presidency on Venezuela and the economic, political and market outlook for the country in 2021, as well as recent developments such as the country's resumption of direct oil shipments to China.

GULF WEEKLY: OPEC tapers by 0.5m b/d, PMIs rise strongly, hopes for Saudi-Qatar deal
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 04 Dec 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rallied on the OPEC+ decision to taper by 0.5m b/d, vs the original plan for 2m. * Biden’s Iran challenge was complicated by approval of a law rolling back nuclear com...

November inflation rises to 3.3%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Dec 2020

Typhoon-related supply disruptions on food items pushed the headline inflation rate to 3.3% yoy, higher than the median analyst forecast of 2.7% as well as the BSP’s 3.2% high-end forecast. On average, prices went up by 1.1% month-on-month (mom), with food prices rising 2.2% attributed mostly to ...

​CAATSA underway?
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Dec 2020

The siege around Mr. Erdogan is tightening by the day.At home, he has to deal with a raging Covid-19 epidemic and rampant inflation which will require CBRT to hike rates once again, or Turkey facing another bout of currency instability. Abroad, EU may impose sanctions during 10-11 December end-ye...

Poland may give up its veto on the EU budget, leaving Hungary alone...
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2020

...in which case it would be terribly difficult for PM Orbán to maintain the Hungarian veto. Sorry to say, but Hungary is just too small in itself to be important enough to efficiently block such a big project as the 7-year EU budget and the recovery package attached to it.The news comes from Jar...

Russia’s pandemic-political update: home alone
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Dec 2020

Russia’s epidemiological situation continued to evolve In November in line with previous trends, such as the continuously growing number of new cases per day. What has changed, however, was the fact that the number of people discharged due to recovery grew steadily as well, so that the growth rat...

Moscow to start vaccination on December 5
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2020

On December 3 the Mayor of Moscow announced that the vaccination of high risk groups will commence this weekend. The president ordered Sputnik V vaccine to be rolled out across the federation as soon as practicable. Medical staff, teachers, police officers and other frontline public sector worker...

Ukraine backed by Turkey on Crimea
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2020

On December 2 the Turkish Foreign Minister said that it agrees that Crimea pertains to Ukraine. The minister said that Turkey would enhance its military relationship with Ukraine. Russia gained control over the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Only a handful of countries recognize Crimea as Russian.Tur...

A bad political accident at a critical time; rating agencies are cautious for the time being
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Dec 2020

Our title for today's note refers to two separate stories, which are closely linked together, though, by the fact that both are relevant in the context of the ongoing EU budget debate culminating just in these days.The first one is about a bad political accident hitting the governing Fidesz party...

After today’s print, CBRT falls further behind
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2020

CPI inflation surprised on the upside by a wide margin in November, coming in at 2.3%, m/m, markedly higher than the market consensus of around 1% (and our slightly higher expectation). Twelve-month CPI inflation rose sharply to 14%, as a result, which is the highest level since September 2019, f...

​Unemployment rate at 8.7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Dec 2020

The statistics bureau today published the October round of its Labor Force Survey showing unemployment rate at 8.7% which compares favorably with July’s 10%. However, delving into the numbers behind the headline rate, we find: The lower unemployment rate was due more to reduced labor force partic...

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