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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Biden and China flows
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Nov 2020

Biden’s presidency is being well received in China. However, foreign investors continued to invest in the country even during the Trump Administration. We look briefly at the domestic response to the Biden election and also at the flows data. Our thesis is that capital moving out into USD and oth...

​A surprise rate cut
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 19 Nov 2020

The Monetary Board made a surprise interest rate cut today, reducing key policy rates by 25bp which brought the overnight RRP rate to 2%. Judging by the officials’ statements during the press conference, the rate cut appears to be aimed at counterbalancing the impact on market sentiments of sever...

Political risks beat fiscal threats
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Nov 2020

We maintain our view that the political risks coming from the presidential election and the composition of the National Assembly will dominate next year’s performance because they will determine the fate of fiscal and domestic economic developments. The political arena is not fully decided so ...

Inflation is up in the aftermath of the weakening of the ruble amid year-end budgetary spending spree
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that during the seven days ending on November 16, the w-o-w inflation remained at 0.2% and was the same as from November 3 to 9. Inflationary pressure increased in November and it cannot be ruled out that monthly inflation could reach 0.7-0.8% implying that inflation y-o-y could ...

Opportunities for Venezuela in the Biden administration
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Nov 2020

The Trump administration's sanctions and maximum pressure policy in 2017-2020 failed to remove Maduro from power. The upcoming change in administration is an opportunity to recalibrate the role of the United States in the Venezuelan crisis at a time when international support for Guaidó and the o...

Ozon asking USD 5 billion in share sale
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2020

Ozon is Russia's second biggest online retail company. Its new valuation is one of the most keenly awaited on the Moscow Bourse.Ozon said its price shares in the IPO will be USD 22.5 to 27.5 That is high by analysts' estimates. The IPO is planned to be on the Nasdaq.Ozon could make USD 1 billion ...

Armenia given more time to withdraw
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Nov 2020

On November 15 Azerbaijan agreed to give Armenia longer to pull out of the territory that is being handed back to Azerbaijan. Kalbacar is a district that is being returned to Azerbaijan. Armenians there are mostly considered illegal immigrants by Azerbaijan. Russia intervened to request this exte...

Industrial growth - no surprises in October, while the 3Q20 GDP was above expectations
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

Rosstat reported that industrial output was down by 5.9% and 3.1% y-o-y in October and 10m20, while September statistics were was revised up – both in the case of mining and manufacturing. Overall, industrial statistics looked in October somewhat worse than in September. At the same time, accordi...

Francisco Sagasti to swear-in as new president
PERU · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

Last night and after a tense weekend, Congress decided to elect Francisco Sagasti from the Purple Party as its new head and Ms. Mirtha Vásquez, from the leftist Frente Amplio Party as the vice-president. With former president Manuel Merino resigning as a result of the street protests, Mr. Sagasti...

Difficulties in a small private bank
INDIA · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

1. India has experienced a financial crisis from about 2012 onwards.2. At present, there is no resolution framework for financial firms. Hence, when balance-sheet based lenders (either investment banks or banks) get into trouble, there is no playbook for their resolution. The various claimants on...

Peering into the recovery
INDIA · Report · 17 Nov 2020

India has had a relatively good experience, by world standards, in the pandemic. While many have been infected, demand for hospitalization (or death) is taking place at modest rates. Many regions in India are approaching herd immunity. The large listed non-financial firms experienced a decline...

Russian GDP fell in Q3
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Nov 2020

Russia's economy went down by 3.6% YoY in Q3. That is not as bad as Q2 when it fell 8% YoY.After the first lockdown the Economy Ministry forecast a GDP fall of 3.8% for 2020. That statistic now seems far too rosy.The laxer lockdown in Q3 has mitigated the economic slowdown. Domestic tourism has a...

Covid-19 weekly update – week ending November 16, 2020 – confusion in the growth of industrial stimulus
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 17 Nov 2020

We saw more weakening in economic activity – but very modest. Cement prices notched up slightly YoY but industrial glass prices are dropping, as are blast furnace operating rates. On the consumer side, traffic congestion fell slightly while property transactions dipped sharply. Retail car sale...

Struggling to move on
CHILE · Report · 16 Nov 2020

During September the IMACEC suggested a further acceleration in the recovery. Any resulting optimism should be tempered, however, by one-off factors. The performance of retail sales for September was atypically positive, favored by a temporary boost from the partial withdrawal of pension savings....

Hungary and Poland blocked the EU's fiscal package in today's preliminary vote
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Nov 2020

EU member states' ambassadors to Brussels met today to hold a preliminary vote on the €1100 bn common budget framework for 2021-2027, the €750 bn recovery package and the conditionality mechanism (the rule-of-law mechanism) attached to both of the former proposals. Of the 27 member states, 25 vot...

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