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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Russian coronavirus cases at a record
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

On November 13 the number of new coronavirus cases in one day in Russia reached 22 000. Bars and nightclubs now have to stop allowing people in at 11 pm.Russia has the fifth highest number of coronavirus cases in the world. The daily death toll is 411 which is low in comparison to the caseload.Mo...

Calvey free from house arrest
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Nov 2020

On November 12 Michael Calvey's house arrest was ended by the Russian Supreme Court. The American investor was arrested 18 months ago. He had been one of the major investors in the country for over 20 years. He founded Baring Vostok investment fund. Calvey and 5 others were charged with embezzlin...

Strong fiscal performance in October, lower deficit expected in 2020
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2020

The Ministry of Finance announced that the federal budget deficit in October was low and reached just R143.5 bn, which brought the 10m20 tally to R1800.4bn. Meanwhile, expenditures in October reached R2071.7bn, and in 10m20 they reached R16.945 trln.Revenue flow in October was relatively strong b...

Borrowing in advance – a too cautious strategy, which may turn costly
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2020

This week the Finance Ministry borrowed another R313 bln on the OFZ market and in such a way reached the annual target to borrow R5.09 trln. This target was announced during the hearing of the 2021-2023 budget in the Russian parliament in early October. On top of that, the Government has also pla...

Russia opening naval base in Sudan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Nov 2020

A draft agreement was published by Russian on November 11 showing that the country plans to open a nuclear warship base in Sudan. Four warships and a maximum of 300 personnel can be posted there. The deal has not yet been inked. It would allow Russia's munitions to be exempt from customs inspecti...

Government spending is skyrocketing
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Nov 2020

Inflation slowed down surprisingly in October, to 21 percent from 29 percent in September. Public spending didn’t ramp up nearly as strongly as it usually does in October, while tax collection was more vigorous than we had anticipated. The money supply (M2) expanded by merely 19 percent, a pace c...

The current account widens in October, while imports may have remained stable
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 11 Nov 2020

The Russian Central bank reported that in 10m20 the current account surplus reached $29.9bn, which means that in October alone this surplus was rather strong having reached $5.8bn. In 9m20 the current account surplus was much lower – $24.1bn, and in 3Q20 it was just $2.5bn. The trade balance wide...

Week November 10
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 11 Nov 2020

We may be seeing beginning signs of the industrial/FAI-driven stimulus weakening, but the data is mixed. Cement prices are declining but float glass prices jumped. Rebar inventory growth is slowing. One theory is that the early stages of property development, which use cement, have tapered off wh...

​Messrs. Lutfi Elvan and Naci Agbal: The art of the feasible
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Nov 2020 · 3 responses

I’ve remained silent after the appointment of Mr. Naci Agbal to CBRT and the replacement of Berat Albayrak with Mr. Lutfi Elvan, because I waited for the second shoe to drop. My job is politics, which remains pregnant with the aftershocks of these two events. Politics is the art of feasible, and ...

Armenian PM under severe pressure to resign
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

On November 10 Armenia awoke to news of a ceasefire guaranteed by Russian troops. Armenia was occupying 13% of Azerbaijan in September. That is now down to 3%. Armenia has suffered a major defeat. Only Russian intervention prevented it from being a total rout. Furious protesters stormed the Armen...

Belarus expels 2 UK diplomats
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

On November 9 Minsk kicked out British diplomats who had been observing demonstrations. Belarus said the Britons had been taking part in ''destructive activities''. The United Kingdom responded by declaring two Belarussian diplomats personae non gratae.

Government backs down from proposed 2021 tax hike
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 10 Nov 2020

October saw the reversal of some government decisions, due both to rejection by citizens and to the occurrence of obvious errors, forcing a search for alternatives. A few days after the proposed 2021 budget was sent to Congress, the government announced that it was withdrawing from the proposal’s...

A constitutional crisis looms
UKRAINE · Report · 10 Nov 2020

Ukraine has entered a very turbulent period of its modern history. A ruling by the Constitutional Court to void the requirement for e-declarations has unfolded into a full-fledged constitutional crisis without any clear legal way out. Legal experts consider the Court’s ruling itself illegal, and ...

Lower for longer for sure
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Nov 2020 · 1 response

The Central Bank was quick to act during the first days of the COVID lockdown, so Colombia took the lead in implementing one of the region’s first QE programs to prop up financial sector liquidity. The Bank was also instrumental in negotiating FCL enlargement with the IMF. Between March and Septe...

Unsurprising heavy disinflation reported for October
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

This morning's statement by KSH (Central Statistical Office) revealed another marked drop by the yoy rate of CPI-inflation in October, to 3% from September's 3.4%. To a great extent, the reason was a significant base effect, as the monthly rate fell to 0.2% from last October's outstandingly high ...

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