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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

​Again, double-digit GDP contraction
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

3Q GDP fell 11.5% yoy, “unsurprising” per the planning secretary given health and public transportation constraints that kept economic activity far below limits set by government. Were it not for the sizeable shrinkage in the external trade deficit, domestic demand alone would have dragged growth...

Russian peacekeepers to enforce ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

At 01:00 local time on November 10 Azerbaijan and Armenia signed an immediate ceasefire brokered by Russia. The current frontline is the ceasefire line therefore Azerabaijan shall retain land gained since September 27.2000 Russian peacekeepers will go to Nagorno Karabakh and be deployed for 5 yea...

Moscow stock market jumps
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 10 Nov 2020

On November 9 shares on the Russian Bourse jumped as did the RUB. That is due to good news about a coroanvirus vaccine. Pfizer and BioNTech said their vaccine is in Phase 3 trials and it is 90% effective. A heartening report was published. The RUB leapt 2% against the USD and reached 76. That is ...

President Vizcarra is ousted
PERU · In Brief · 09 Nov 2020 · 2 responses

After a tense impeachment process that started on the morning of November 9, Congress voted by 105 votes, 19 against and 4 abstained, to oust President Martin Vizcarra. President Vizcarra was investigated by the Attorney General Office for corruption while he was Moquegua’s Governor, a small Stat...

Politics: A tall order for the new public security head
MEXICO · Report · 09 Nov 2020

With Alfonso Durazo’s departure from the Ministry of Public Security and Citizen Protection (SSPC) to run for governor of his home state, the first chapter of President López Obrador’s security policy has come to an end. But the next chapter may well prove as ineffective as Durazo’s tenure, in wh...

Recovery of Industry: Domestic Production and Imports
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Nov 2020

Brazil’s industrial output grew in September and is 2% above the level observed in December 2016, an average increase of 0.6% per year in the period. It was the fifth consecutive month of expansion, and unlike many countries, Brazil has already recouped the loss accrued in March and April. But is...

Bolsonaro's Brazil in the Biden era and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Nov 2020

This is the final week of the electoral campaign ahead of the municipal election, which will take place on November 15. For this reason, there will be no legislative activity in Congress this week. Congress’s decision on the extension of payroll tax exemptions should be published in the Official ...

Some thoughts on the last 48 hours
TURKEY · Report · 09 Nov 2020

We have witnessed dramatic changes in economic management over the past 48 hours or so, with the replacement of CBRT Governor Murat Uysal by the former Finance Minister Naci Agbal, followed up by the very strangely executed resignation of the Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak. At the t...

Vaccine impact on the Gulf's economy and markets
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 09 Nov 2020

The renewed hope for effective vaccines is a strong boost for the region, including through higher oil prices and increased tourism, and the Gulf should be at the forefront in rolling out vaccines. Bonds will likely continue rallying but volatility will set in after the initial surge, when doubts...

Economics: Energy policy pressured on all fronts
MEXICO · Report · 09 Nov 2020

Pemex presented its results for the third quarter of 2020 on October 28. In essence, they reveal a deepening of the company’s extended operational and financial decline. Its gas and oil output continued to fall, most of the oil fields it has prioritized for development have significantly underper...

The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 12% of GDP this year
ISRAEL · Report · 09 Nov 2020

The fiscal deficit in October reached 10.1% of GDP (LTM) and is expected to increase to 12% by end-year; pressure for higher yields will continue. Economic indicators point to a gradual recovery as the second lockdown is being lifted slowly. Domestic consumption is being supported by the limited ...

Partial Covid-lockdown has been just announced
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Nov 2020

Earlier this morning, PM Orbán has announced a substantial tightening of current Covid restrictions, in response to the rapid spreading of the virus and the growing pressure on the domestic health care sector. The new regime, which is to start at tomorrow at midnight and remain in place for 30 da...

The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 12% GDP this year
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Nov 2020

Highlights: Economic indicators continue to point to a gradual recovery The weekly credit card purchases have increased by 20% in the past three weeks (through 3.11) as the economy has opened up, but this data is unfortunately not seasonally adjusted. Data from the CBS (sa) reveal that credit car...

At the proverbial fork, at last?
TURKEY · Report · 08 Nov 2020 · 1 response

VERY IMPORTANT NOTE TO OUR READERS: As we were ready to send this report out to NYC for distribution, Minister Berat Albayrak is claimed to have resigned on account of health problems through an Instagram message. News flow is extremely erratic at the moment, and we are currently fact checking, b...

Azerbaijanis claim major victory over Armenia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Nov 2020

On November 8 Azerbaijan boasted that it has retaken a town that it has not held since 1991. It is in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Region. The Armenians call the town Shushi. Armenia says there is a battle ongoing on the town but that the Azerbaijanis have not taken it. Armenia admits that at le...

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