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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Shooting the messenger, once again: some thoughts
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Nov 2020

President Erdogan removed the CBRT Governor Murat Uysal today, replacing him with former Finance Minister Naci Agbal (2015-18), who has been heading the Budget and Strategy Office at the Presidency.There are basically two theories regarding what might have triggered the President’s decision. The ...

EU sanctions on Lukashenka
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Nov 2020

On November 5 the EU imposed sanctions on the President of Belarus and his eldest son Viktar as well as 13 senior officials in Belarus. Viktat Lukashenka is the national security adviser. The reason given was for violence and electoral fraud. The people on the list have had their assets frozen an...

New Ukraine peace plan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2020

On November 5 the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) produced a new peace proposal. The aim is to stage local elections in Donbass and Luhansk in March 2021. There are 5 steps in the plan: the withdrawal of foreign fighters, repealing the law offering Russian c...

South Africa’s structural vulnerabilities worsen as the Covid-19 pandemic takes a toll on the country’s economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 06 Nov 2020

Summary and Assumptions • Employment: 2.2 million individuals lost their jobs during the second quarter of 2020 amid strict economic lockdowns to slow the progress of Covid-19 infections. Surveys show improvement in employment prospects in H2 2020 from Q2 2020, but also indicate that overall, th...

GULF WEEKLY: Aramco results, Bahrain budget, OPEC+ mulls deeper cuts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 06 Nov 2020 · 1 response

​A skimmable summary of key developments overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * A divided US government could benefit the region due to lower yields and a weaker dollar. * A President Biden, even without the Senate, will shift policy on Iran and Saud...

Fighting heats up between Armenia and Azerbaijan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Nov 2020

On November 6 the conflict returned to intensity. The Azerbaijanis shelled Stepankert which is the main city of the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh Region. The Armenians reported 3 civilian deaths. The Azerbaijanis claimed that Armenia had shelled civilians in the town of Tatar. The Azerbaijanis, with ...

A robust recovery
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Nov 2020

The stock market, FDI and foreign reserves have all returned to pre-pandemic levels, while the fiscal budget deficit has expanded further. Fiscal revenue fell -6.4% y/y in Q3, and expenditure was down -1.9% y/y. Despite the global pandemic, and the still ongoing U.S.-China trade war, exports a...

Russian economy slows
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2020

On November 5 the IHS Markit report revealed a large drop in the purchasing managers' index (PMI). The PMI for services fell from 53.7 to 46.9 in October 2020. That is the steepest fall since May 2020. The PMI is highly respected as an economic weathervane. A PMI under 50 means contraction. An un...

Russian stock market climbing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Nov 2020

On November 5 the Moscow Bourse rose as it followed on the coattails of a global equities rise. It rallied even amid the US presidential nailbiter. The MOEX Index rose 1.4% in the first minutes of trading. It recouped the value it lost last week when there was a large sell off. The RTS Index (USD...

Russia’s political/pandemic update: “Rescuing drowning people is the work of the drowning people themselves”
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Nov 2020 · 1 response

Politically, October In Russia appeared a quieter month than the previous ones as the Navalny saga suddenly evaporated from the geopolitical scene, no fresh comments on the Nord Stream 2 came from either side, i.e., its adversaries or proponents, there was no major news from the Belarusian prote...

Russian consumer spending down
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

Russian shoppers spent less in early October 2020 than in any month since late May 2020. The second wave has scared people off main street. Economic woes have also slowed online shopping. Spending was down 11% Y o Y in the first week of October according to the Sberindex. Spending in bars and res...

​Supreme Court bows to the executive power
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Nov 2020

Amid the US election, which is attracting most of the media attention, Argentina’s Supreme Court ruled in favor of the government’s interests regarding the validity of the transfers of two judges who ruled against Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). A third judge who is still dec...

Why was Ant Financial cancelled?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 04 Nov 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Thursday’s expected IPO of Ant Financial, dual-listed in Shanghai and Hong Kong, was suspended last night. It was an extremely visible transaction that would have been the largest IPO in history. • While there is a lot of speculation that the dec...

Limited new Covid restrictions were announced last night
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Nov 2020

PM Orbán announced new Covid restrictions last night, following a number of recent official indications that tighter rules were about to come. Specifically, a night curfew from midnight to 5 am was introduced immediately, together with the instruction to close bars and nightclubs, and a rule that...

The cancellation of the Ant IPO and the Chinese financial system
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Nov 2020

What does the cancellation of the Ant IPO mean for China’s global financial integration and for China’s economy? In a word, not much on the integration front, due to significant and continuing financial flows. Within China, though, the decision was a sign of policy confusion and an affirmation of...

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