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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

South Africa aims to revive the economy via investment in Strategic Integrated Infrastructure Projects
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jul 2020

Just over a month ago, on June 23, we wrote a report on the inaugural Sustainable Infrastructure Development Symposium of South Africa (SIDSSA) – another instrument in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s drive aimed at boosting South Africa’s infrastructure investment and its economy. What had emerged du...

China virus check – week ending July 27
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 28 Jul 2020

​Our latest data for economic activity in China showed mixed data for the most recent period. Coal use for electricity fell, which could signal weakness in the industrial sector, which has been the prime generator of economic growth under Beijing’s stimulus measures. Commercial property sales als...

Russian Government backed mortgages raise property sales
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2020

Data published by RBK on July 27 revealed that a program to support mortgages has helped the property market recover just two months after the end of general lockdown. Mortgage lending was up by 28% in June Y o Y. USD 36 billion was lent to buyers in June 2020. The Joint Credit Bureau collated th...

Ukrainian bank claims it was used for money laundering
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 28 Jul 2020

On July 21 PrivatBank stated that its erstwhile owners used it to launder USD 800 million into the United States. The bank filed a complaint in Delaware against Ihor Kolomoisky and Hennadiy Boholyubov. The men allegedly used a group of American companies known as Optima. PrivtaBank filed a suit a...

A let down
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020

Amidst criticisms that the government’s lockdown response, the world’s strictest and longest, has flattened the economy but not covid-19, many tuned in to President Rodrigo Duterte’s fifth State of the Nation Address (SONA) to hear his roadmap for recovery. Sadly, the speech was not attuned to th...

The MDB and DEM leave the Centrão
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Today, the MDB and DEM parties announced their departure from the Centrão, a group made up of the PL, PP, PSD, SD, PROS, PTB and Avante. The Centrão is the largest group of parties in the Lower House and is led by Deputy Arthur Lira (PP-AL), considered an informal leader of the Jair Bolsonaro gov...

Economics: A Mexican crisis like no other
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Although uncertainty has been the one constant since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, we update the odds of some scenarios given the latest economic data, even as questions surround the pandemic’s future. In the International Monetary Fund’s most recent assessment of the global economic si...

Uzbekistan prolongs quarantine
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020

On July 27 Uzbekistan announced that coronavirus quarantine measures will last until August 15. They had been due to expire on July 31. Significantly, this means that quarantine will last through a key Islamic festival. The country is 95% Muslim. On August 1-2 all public transport will be banned....

Politics: Broader meaning of the INE confirmations
MEXICO · Report · 27 Jul 2020

When Congress confirmed, in an almost unanimous vote, four new members of the governing body of the National Electoral Institute (INE), it sent a powerful message as to the autonomy and independence of the electoral authority ahead of the 2021 midterms, the most extensive electoral event in Mexic...

Bolsonaro regains popularity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Discussions resume on Tax Reform in the Joint Congressional Committee. The agenda in the Senate is focused on provisional measures. The Lower House may vote on aid to companies in the public transportation sector. Two important laws will be sanctioned by President Bolsonaro: 1) the law that chang...

The Fiscal Challenge: Reforms, Risks and Monetary Consequences
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Jul 2020

The Central Bank has been expressing concern regarding the next monetary policy movements. Might there be an effective lower bound (ELB) for the basic interest rate in Brazil, as is the case of other emerging countries? Will the path of the primary results and gross debt alter the risk premiums a...

Economic pain amid the pandemic
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Jul 2020

As Covid-19 infections spread exponentially in Venezuela, the government is focusing its economic response on Homeland System cash transfers. Although we expect these transfers to surge in real terms over the second half of 2020, we see them as woefully inadequate, and real household income is st...

Signs of stability in domestic demand in July, despite restrictions
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Jul 2020

Initial economic indicators for July point to some stability in domestic demand. Unemployment reached 11.8% in the last two weeks of June, but most likely drifted somewhat higher in July given the increasing restrictions. Macro fundamentals and flows have supported a stronger shekel, despite aggr...

Russia: The key rate cut, but CBR plans may become muted
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Jul 2020 · 1 response

he Russian Central Bank cut the key policy rate by 25 bp to 4.25% and released its updated macroeconomic forecast along with some thoughts and interpretations of the ongoing developments. Generally, this updated forecast doesn’t differ much from GKEM Analytica's forecast published last week. Howe...

Strong rebound, even without a major stimulus
CHINA · Report · 26 Jul 2020

GDP rose 3.2% y/y in Q2 -- a remarkable performance amid global pandemic. In June, industrial output was up 4.8% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from May, though has still not reached the pre-pandemic level, and was down 1.1 pps from Q4 2019. Investment, mostly driven by state investment, was up 5.6% y/y, u...

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