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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Sep CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps easing, Azerbaijan reveals key assumptions of 2025 budget, Georgia grows by 9.0% over 1H, Uzbekistan leaves policy rates unchanged
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Sep 2024

We briefly comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA in Sep: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 7.50% Armenia: CPI remains contained at 1.3% YoY in Aug Armenia: Central Bank expects economy to grow by 5.8-6.5% in 2024 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slow...

The start of the easing cycle
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Sep 2024

As the world knows, on September 18, 2024, the US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting (FOMC) decided to slash the Federal Funds rate by 50 basis points. That was the first step in the US Fed's easing cycle. One day prior to that decision, after convening for two days, Bank Indonesia als...

The STF will decide on the PIS/Cofins tax case in early October, IBGE employees protest against the institute’s president, and Lula is optimistic about the Mercosur-EU trade agreement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2024

The Supreme Federal Court (STF) will soon rule on another important tax matter. A virtual plenary session has been scheduled between October 4 and 11 to analyze a decree from President Lula on the PIS/Cofins tax rate. Today, the national union of IBGE employees, Assibge-SN, organized a protest ag...

Industrial growth moderates but still looks not too bad
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2024

Russian industrial output grew y-o-y by 4.5% and 2.7% in 8M24 and August alone. In the latter case, according to Rosstat, it grew by 0.8% m-o-m in seasonally adjusted terms. In 1H24 industry grew by 5.0%. Some moderation of the y-o-y growth looked natural as in 2023 it grew by over 6.0% from Augu...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 26 Sep 2024

The CBR decided to hike the key rate to 19% (from 18%), which became the most important event for Russian markets in the past couple of weeks. In addition, the regulator kept a hawkish tone in the minutes of the BoD meeting. According to the document, the members of the BoD “calibrated” the state...

Minister of Finance outlines scope of fiscal reform
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 26 Sep 2024

Although the government has not yet presented the concrete content of its fiscal reform proposal, yesterday the Minister of Finance, Jochi Vicente, outlined the strategy to be followed for increasing fiscal revenues. The fiscal reform would be guided by four key principles: commitment of all sect...

The Firm Tone of the Minutes and the Next Steps of the COPOM
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Sep 2024

The COPOM minutes provided a harsh diagnosis of the inflationary environment, and there was no indication regarding the pace and magnitude of interest rate adjustments, which will depend on the evolution of the data. The Committee's description of the current scenario, characterized by resilience...

Durigan stated that the Ministry of Finance will present a proposal on FGTS withdrawals, the government decided to remove the urgent status of the Tax Reform bill, and the STF may resume the trial on Reintegra
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Sep 2024

Yesterday, the Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Dario Durigan, stated that the Ministry of Finance plans to present a proposal to the National Congress this year to modify the FGTS (Severance Indemnity Fund for Employees) birthday withdrawal mechanism. In other news, the government...

Hi-tech service exports up + PMI rebounds
ISRAEL · In Brief · 25 Sep 2024

Hi-tech service exports have increased in recent months, up 1.8% m/m in July and up 3.7% since March 24. In the first 7 months of the year, hi-tech service exports have increased by 4.8% y/y. This important economic driver (all computer, software, IT, R&D, etc.) is an important driver making up n...

London business trip impressions by Atilla Yesilada
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Sep 2024 · 2 responses

I’ve toured London-based financial institutions last week for three days, when I met 27 different companies. I asked Global Source Partners NYC to organize this tour, because I had an important message to share: Turkey is more likely than not heading for an early ballot by year-end 2025, give and...

No surprise once again: MNB base rate reduced to 6.5% today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2024

We, and honestly everyone else in the analyst community, have proven right in predicting the MNB's September rate action. At today's monthly rate-setting meeting, the Monetary Council decided to reduce the base rate by another 25 bps: Indeed, forecasting this step was not really that difficult, i...

Lula and Haddad met with rating agencies in New York, VP Alckmin said the LCD could raise R$ 1.5 trillion to finance the industrial sector, and the CAE will hold a public hearing on the impact of Tax Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2024

President Lula and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad met yesterday with representatives from the rating agencies Moody's and Standard & Poor's (S&P). At the end of the meeting, Haddad said that “the outlook is good.” Yesterday, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin stated that the Development Credit Note...

Economics: Aggregate demand figures show 2Q deepening of deceleration amid weakened private consumption of services, public investment
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2024

Last Wednesday, Inegi published aggregate supply and demand figures for the second quarter of 2024, showing an increase in demand (equal to supply) of 0.9% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. That marked a deceleration with respect to the increases reported for the first quarter (2.4% yoy), and...

HEADS-UP: CHP leader Ozel mindful of Imamoglu being banned from politics
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2024

CHP leader Ozgur Ozel devoted a portion of his press conference on his way to US to the pending appeals court case regarding Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu. He must be really concerned about the intermediate appeals court issuing its ruling “soon”, because he added that if that were the case, he w...

The post-election agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Sep 2024

President Lula is attending the United Nations General Assembly in the United States. He will be accompanied by Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance), Marina Silva (Environment and Climate Change), Luciana Santos (Science, Technology and Innovation), Esther Dweck (Public Services Management and Inno...

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