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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Tracking the recovery from the lockdown
INDIA · Report · 08 Jun 2020

One of most interesting questions in Indian economics today is that of tracking the decline of the economy after the lockdown, and its recovery ever since. As the standard macroeconomic measurement in India works poorly, it is important to come at this question using novel data sources. In thi...

China virus check – week of June 8
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Our latest data for economic activity in China shows some pockets of economic growth, but overall flat-to-negative activity: 1) Rising coal consumption in the power industry, but relatively flat operations for iron ore blast furnaces. 2) Traffic congestion is flat to down. 3) Expressway traf...

Economics: Trade balance for April augurs further crunch
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Foreign trade data for the first quarter reflected a deepening recession, as trust in the Mexican economy was fading and the first stage of the Covid-19 pandemic started to show its economic effects. However, April data clearly reflects the very deep contraction that is expected for the whole yea...

The BoI to continue to target the long end of the curve
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Recent data continue to reflect contraction, but improving in May: * The BoI Composite Index declined by 0.3% in April. * Exports of services declined by 9% m/m in March (mostly tourism). * We note that high-tech service exports are up 9.4% saar in Q120, an important driver ma...

Appeasing
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Jun 2020

Covid-19 and gasoline shortages brought protests and recession. On 1 June 2020 the government started trying to appease by easing the shutdown and imposing a gasoline rationing system that guarantees a significant rent to Homeland ID holders. The economy reopens while the number of Covid-19 c...

From health scare to political crisis
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jun 2020

Turkey transitioned directly from health scare and economic distress into a no-holds-barred political brawl, which threatens stability going forward. The sacking of three opposition MPs is a sign of President Erdogan escalating pressure on the opposition, but to what end? One reason may be the...

The BoI to continue to target the long end of the curve
ISRAEL · In Brief · 07 Jun 2020

Highlights o fWeekly Macro Wrap Up: Recent data continue to reflect contraction, but improving in May: The BoI Composite Index declined by 0.3% in April. Exports of services declined by 9% m/m in March (mostly tourism). We note that high tech service exports are up 9.4% saar in Q120, an important...

Russia reviews buildings in Arctic
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Jun 2020

On June 5 the prosecutor-general commissioned a review into buildings on permafrost. A fuel tank leak in the Arctic has caused environmental cataclysm. Putin ordered a state of emergency in Norilsk because on May 29 the tank at the thermal power plant accidentally spilled 20 000 tons of diesel. I...

Fiscally stimulating enough?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Jun 2020

The government statistics bureau announced Friday that the unemployment rate shot up to 17.7% in Q2[1] vs. 5.3% in Q1. It attributed the record high joblessness, about 7.3 million people (up from 2.4 million in Q1), to the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) in place at the time to contain the co...

Bolsonaro insults opposition movements
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Jun 2020

During his participation in the inauguration of the Águas Lindas Campaign Hospital, located in the state of Goiás (GO), President Jair Bolsonaro made a statement that shows his willingness to keep the intense political polarization on the agenda. In his speech, Bolsonaro insulted his opposition b...

​GULF WEEKLY: OPEC+ near to extending cuts, Saudi transferred $40bn to PIF
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 05 Jun 2020

A skimmable summary of key developments, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rallied on further indications of a pending extension to OPEC+ cuts. * PMIs began to recover across the region in May. * Coronavirus infections fell by -5% w/w in th...

Ugly, yet unsurprising macro data out for April
HUNGARY · In Brief · 05 Jun 2020

Industrial output fell 36.7% yoy, retail sales by 10% yoy, guest nights in domestic hotels by 97% yoy in April. It has been broadly expected that macro data for April - the only month spent fully under the local maximum of Covid-19 lockdown rules - would look brutally poor, and yes, exactly that ...

COVID-19 changes the political scenario
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 05 Jun 2020

COVID-19 has changed the political scenario, in the runup to the July 5th elections. One of the most prestigious polling firms has projected a technical tie in the preferences for Luis Abinader (PRM & allies) and Gonzalo Castillo (PLD & allies), with 39% for Abinader (down 4% from January) and 37...

Capital flows and Hong Kong’s future
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Jun 2020

Hong Kong’s role as a financial center is likely to be diminished due to the incursion of mainland security forces into the city and the introduction of a new national security law. Any efforts to halt the demonstrations involving these forces would likely increase the uncertainty regarding the p...

US bill tries to block Russian pipeline
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Jun 2020

On June 4 US Senators introduced legislation intended to prevent Russia for completing Nord Stream 2. This is an undersea gas pipeline to Germany. If functional it would double Russia's gas exports to Germany.Senator Cruz and Senator Shaheen are among the 5 sponsors of the bill. Cruz is a Republi...

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