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Tensions rise in the political crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 May 2020

Former Minister Sérgio Moro testified to the Federal Police on Saturday, May 2. Possible leaks could shake the political world. The bill that provides aid to states and municipalities will begin to be analyzed in the Lower House. On Monday, May 4, representatives vote on the “war budget” constitu...

Costa Rica: The Finance Minister released new fiscal deficit estimates
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 04 May 2020

The April 30 press conference of Minister of Finance Rodrigo Chaves only confirmed what we anticipated in our March and April reports about the seriousness of the fiscal consequences from COVID-19, mounted on long-term fiscal fragility and a lack of willingness to adopt the required measures on t...

New number 2 in Kazakhstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2020

On May 4 the Kazakh Senate elected a new chairman. Maulen Ashimbaev was elected. He was previously head of the presidential administration. The Chairman of the Senate becomes president if the sitting president dies, resigns or is removed from office. Ashimbaev was elected the same day that he was...

Russian national projects scaled back
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2020 · 1 response

On May 3 Putin's spokesman announced that national projects will be reduced. This is due to coronavirus. The national projects were begun in 2018. These infrastructure works were due to cost USD 400 billion. They were falling behind schedule before coronavirus appeared. The projects will continue...

True improvement vs. lockdown noise?
TURKEY · Report · 04 May 2020

Consumer prices rose by 0.85%, m/m, somewhat higher than the market consensus, with the 12-month CPI inflation easing to 10.9% from 11.9% in March. Domestic-PPI inflation registered 1.3%, m/m, increase, leading to a decline in the 12-month rate to 6.7%, from 8.5% in the previous month. The wor...

Synthesis of the Brazilian economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 May 2020

The month of April 2020 will be remembered as one of the most unique ever experienced by the country. Circumstances were created assuring the concomitant aggravation of three major crises: the pandemic, the political crisis and the economic crisis. The number of deaths caused by the Covid-19 viru...

The growth in employment will be crucial for recovery
ISRAEL · Report · 04 May 2020

Highlights: Although official unemployment rose only slightly in March to 3.4%, this does not represent the actual state of the labor market. * Those on forced non-pay vacation are not considered unemployed. * If this segment is included, it is estimated that 817k were out of wor...

Russian drug prices soaring
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 May 2020

On April 29 Russian newspaper Vedomosti reported that prices for medicines are soaring. On certain routes transport costs are up sixfold due to coronavirus. This would make some medicines loss makers for manufacturers. Supply chains have been disrupted. Some Russian pharmaceutical manufacturers a...

The growth in employment will be crucial for recovery
ISRAEL · In Brief · 03 May 2020

Highlights of our upcoming weekly review:Although official unemployment rose only slightly in March to 3.4%, this does not represent the actual state of the labour market.Those on forced non-pay vacation are not considered unemployed.If this segment is included, it is estimated that 817k were out...

Corona damage becoming visible
TURKEY · Report · 03 May 2020

In as much as official figures may be misleading, Turkey is making good progress on eradicating COVID-19, while the government has switched to a cautious stance vis-à-vis re-opening the economy. Administration members now caution the public that Turkey will remain on emergency footing for some ...

Chair of Kazakhstan Senate suddenly fired
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2020

On May 2 the President of Kazakhstan fired the Chair of the Senate. President Tokayev thanked Dariga Nazarbayeva for her work and offered no explanation for the unheralded announcement. Chair of the Senate is the successor to the president if he dies in office or is incapacitated. Dariga Nazarbay...

S&P has taken back the positive outlook from its BBB sovereign rating for Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 May 2020

Well, it did not take a very long time. S&P announced the positive outlook on February 14 this year, signalling that it would soon consider an upgrade for the Hungarian sovereign's BBB rating. But then came Covid-19, and in an extraordinary statement released on April 28, the outlook was announce...

Disobedience probe: alarming ring of big reshuffle
UKRAINE · In Brief · 02 May 2020

Yesterday we witnessed events, which might be the first signal of big shift in Ukrainian politics. Mayor of Cherkasy, a town in central Ukraine with near 280 thnd inhabitants, eased quarantine restrictions from May 1st ahead of any orders from Kyiv. President Zelenskiy in his regular video-addres...

Procter and Gamble gaining in Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 May 2020

30-50% of Russian economic output has been closed down to coronavirus. Procter and Gamble (P&G) is allowed to continue as normal. It produces coronavirus necessaries. These include Fairy and Tide.P & G has posted some of its best ever results for Q1. Sales are up. People have stocked up. 60% of P...

GULF WEEKLY: Coronavirus slows, Saudi/Qatar fiscal data, Oman/Dubai GRE downgrades
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 May 2020 · 1 response

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis, the outlook and links to further information. Headlines include: * Oil rose by about $5 over the week, and the new OPEC+ quotas came into effect today. * Coronavirus growth rates finally began to slo...

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