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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Why?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 07 Jan 2020 · 1 response

On 5 January 2020 the regime carried out a parliamentary coup aimed at replacing Juan Guaidó as president of the National Assembly (AN). It created a fictitious, fraudulent and obedient AN Board while, at the same time, a legitimate Board headed by Juan Guaidó emerged from the vote of 100 deputie...

Ukraine worried about immigration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jan 2020

Poland is considering making it easier for Ukrainian to gain permanent residency. There are over a million Ukrainians legally resident in Poland. The languages of the two neighbors are very similar. The Polish proposal got mixed reactions in Ukraine. Many Ukrainians want to move somewhere where t...

China and the impossible trinity
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jan 2020

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Capital flight continues to be a major issue for Beijing, with the “Errors and omissions” account at an all-time high. • The central bank wants to maintain relatively easy monetary conditions as it tries to work its way through China’s debt burden, b...

The fiscal deficit reached 3.7% GDP in 2019
ISRAEL · In Brief · 06 Jan 2020

The fiscal deficit in 2019 exceeded the planned deficit by 12bn ILS, due to a 9.2bn undershooting of revenues and a 2.8bn overshooting in spending. Expenditures of government ministries increased by 6.3% y/y, above the original planned budget of 5.1% growth in spending.Tax revenues were up 3.5% i...

Rate stability expected this week with a more neutral bias
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Jan 2020

GDP growth reached 3.3% in 2019 on strong domestic consumption and service exports. Growth in 2020 is expected to slow to 2.8% on weaker consumption due to a tighter fiscal position, offset by natural gas exports. Average wages are expanding by 2.5%-2.8% annual, supportive of PC demand and some m...

Rate stability expected on Thursday with a more neutral bias
ISRAEL · In Brief · 05 Jan 2020

GDP growth in 2019 reached 3.3% (1.3% per capita)Drivers: Private consumption increased by 3.9%, public consumption 4.1% and service exports 9.0%.Weak growth: industrial exports up only 1.5%, and investments in fixed assets up only 0.3%.The public debt/GDP ratio is expected to decline in 2019 (be...

New year, old problems
TURKEY · Report · 05 Jan 2020 · 1 response

After a brief update of the political scene, the New Year’s politics coverage starts with the Idlib crisis, which has pushed a quarter million refugees to Turkey’s borders. President Erdogan will try to hash out another ceasefire with Putin on the 8th of January meeting, but it might take some sa...

Belarus and Russia reach oil deal
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 04 Jan 2020

On January 4 Belarus and Russia agreed to reopen Belarus' oil refineries. Belarus' state oil company Belneftkhim consented to renounce the supplier's premium that it has received on oil from Russia. Over 80% of Belarus' energy comes from Russia. Being cut off from this in midwinter would be very ...

The old EPP game is starting again
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Jan 2020

The European edition of Politico (politico.hu) wrote yesterday that according to an unnamed high-ranking representative of Fidesz, PM Orbán is seriously considering to pull Fidesz out of the European People's Party. A few days ago, a leading background figure in the Fidesz political family said o...

​Gulf weekly: US assassinates Iranian general, Saudi GDP contracts
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2020

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Saudi GDP contracted by -0.5% y/y in Q3, a base effect due to high oil output a year before, but non-oil growth picked up to 4.3% (a five-year hig...

US killing of Iranian general could re-escalate Gulf tensions
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2020

Oil prices spiked by $2 after a US drone strike in Iraq assassinated one of Iran’s most powerful generals. The situation is evolving rapidly and puts at risk the Saudi-driven cycle of de-escalation that has seen an apparent pause in attacks on oil interests in the Gulf since September. There may ...

Turkey troop deployment in Libya irks Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Jan 2020

On January 2 the Turkish Parliament voted to send troops to Libya to bolster the government there. This annoys Russia which is supporting the Libyan National Army under Khalifa Haftar. Turkey and Russia have co-operated fruitfully in Syria.

​Outlook for the Gulf in 2020 (and review of 2019)
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 03 Jan 2020

This report provides a summary of the key trends and events in the Gulf in 2019, including a review of some of our calls during the year, and outlines some of the key developments to watch for in 2020.

December inflation: stickiness continues
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Jan 2020

Consumer prices rose by 0.7%, m/m, in December, slightly higher than the consensus of 0.5%, with the 12-month rate hence ending the year at 11.8%, up from 10.6% in November and 8.6% in October. Producer prices increased also by 0.7% in the month, m/m, with the 12-month PPI inflation thus rising t...

What to expect in China 2020
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Jan 2020

The obvious question for 2020 is – can China maintain growth without causing a bank failure, widespread defaults, or massive unrest as a result of unemployment? So far, Beijing has done a pretty good job, although my working assumption is that there is significant unemployment in more remote reg...

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