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Ukraine-IMF talks stalling
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2019

Ukraine has a USD 3.9 billion standby arrangement with the IMF. This has almost run to the end of its 14 month lifespan. Ukraine desperately needs another IMF deal. There does not seem to be any other party willing to bankroll Ukraine. Talks are foundering on the issue of PrivatBank and the chanc...

Russia sells arms to Gabon
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 03 Dec 2019

On November 20 the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had sold weapons to Gabon. This is the first ever arms sale by Russia to Gabon. The African nation is a former French colony. The weapons sold were small arms and their purpose is supposedly to guard national parks. The country is p...

Vizcarra governing unhindered
PERU · Report · 03 Dec 2019

Elections for a new Congress are set for January 26th, after President Martín Vizcarra’s dissolution of Congress in September. Though the government is in the interim empowered to issue executive orders that have the same validity as law, we doubt it will enact any significant reforms this way, b...

South Africa’s Q3 GDP surprises on the downside, contracting amid expectations of low but positive growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2019

The previous quarterly GDP data by Stats SA revealed that South Africa had avoided a second consecutive H1 technical recession, as real GDP growth recovered by 3.2% q/q (upwardly adjusted from 3.1%) in the second quarter, from a contraction of 3.1% q/q during the first quarter of 2019. However, t...

2020 elections may bring power shift
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 03 Dec 2019

The ruling PLD is headed toward a loss in the May 2020 elections, while presidential challenger Luis Abinader, the PRM and their allies seem well placed to win. These are the findings of two recent unpublished surveys, whose results were leaked to the media. These polls show significant voter pre...

Inflation: Up on base effect, sticky underneath
TURKEY · Report · 03 Dec 2019

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in November coming in at 0.4%, m/m, mainly on the back of better than expected food prices (according to our forecast), more specifically unprocessed food prices. As expected though, the 12-month CPI inflation increased to a double-digit 10.6%, y...

The government is a passenger on the congressional train and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2019

President Jair Bolsonaro takes part in the Mercusur Summit in Rio Grande do Sul. In the Lower House, we highlight the vote on the new regulatory framework for sanitation. Congress analyzes presidential vetoes, including the veto that would allow for the return of free party advertising. The Feder...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2019

Despite a sometimes half-baked agenda, Brazilian society has been showing signs of maturity, vigor and appreciation for democracy. Siren calls from the extremes of the political spectrum do not entrance the majority, who continue to hope for a united and prosperous country. The recovery of consum...

Russian regulatory guillotine is chopping
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Dec 2019

The Russian government approved two bills intended to reduce the bureaucracy burden facing businesses. The Russian bureaucracy is notorious for its opaque and sclerotic nature. To found a business a person in many cases has to do a paper chase all over a city, getting scores of documents signed o...

Economics: Indicators extend slide in November
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2019

During the third quarter of 2019 Mexico’s GDP fell 0.2% below levels of a year earlier according to seasonally adjusted data released last Monday, putting the economy on track for its worst yearly performance in a decade. The economy was pulled lower by a negative performance in the industrial se...

Labor Market: Regional Disparities
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2019

The economic recovery continues being led by household consumption, stimulated by the low interest rate and growth of new lending. Nevertheless, the key variable for better performance is the behavior of the labor market, which has been improving gradually. Although still high, in October the num...

​Growth surprises somewhat on the downside
TURKEY · Report · 02 Dec 2019

The Turkish economy grew by 0.9%, y/y, in the third quarter of 2019, broadly in line with expectations, but sequential growth, which is a lot more important to monitor nowadays (given the strong base effects from last year) was somewhat weaker than envisaged, with GDP expanding by 0.4% over the p...

Politics: Taking score after a full year of AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 02 Dec 2019

As President Andrés Manuel López Obrador celebrates his first year in office, there is an increasingly obvious disconnect between expectations and reality. The administration has scored some significant accomplishments, such as a major increase in the federal minimum wage and a positive overhaul ...

The BoI avoids a cut, preferring FX intervention
ISRAEL · Report · 02 Dec 2019

The BoI has signaled that a rate cut is currently off the table (unless the economy deteriorates), with FX intervention the preferred tool. Recent economic indicators point to fairly stable growth, and the BoI Composite Index witnessed a slight acceleration in recent months. In politics, despite ...

​Gulf weekly: Qatar doubles hydrocarbon reserves and talks with Saudi
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 01 Dec 2019

The weekly is a skimmable summary of key developments by country, overlaid with our analysis and links to further information. Headlines include: * Aramco’s IPO has received $74bn in domestic orders but only $3bn internationally so far. * Qatar sharply hiked its gas and oil reserves and upsiz...

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