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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No more disinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 14 Aug 2019

Disinflation ended. The rebound in monthly inflation we expected for August came in July as stronger public spending propped up consumption and the surge in the price of the dollar in the parallel market affected prices and expectations. We revised up our July inflation estimate to 32 percent fro...

YEMEN: Conflict in Aden might help end Yemen’s civil war, benefiting the GCC
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2019

Counterintuitively, a new axis of conflict in Yemen, which saw southern separatists capture Aden last weekend, might help end the civil war. This is because it could be easier for the separatists than the government to find accommodation with the Houthi rebels, who control the northern highlands....

SAUDI: Aramco H1 results build hype for a likely IPO in H2 2020, but dividend policy remains vague
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 13 Aug 2019

Net income was down 12% on a 4% fall in oil price and a 7% rise in opex. However, transfers to the government were up 11% to $117bn due to an unexplained special dividend. Many of the initial barriers to an IPO have diminished, and much of the groundwork has been done, so we therefore expect it t...

The High Court rules in favor of the president over the public protector ‒ twice in a row
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Following the Public Protector’s (PP) (Ms. Mkhwebane) findings that the President (Mr. Ramaphosa) misled Parliament as well as the nation by not disclosing knowledge about (the sources of) donations for his 2017 ANC presidential campaign, Mr. Ramaphosa applied for an urgent interdict against Ms. ...

Fear of nuclear arms race
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Aug 2019

More information has been has been discovered about the August 8 nuclear accident in Russia. On August 8 accident took place at off Archangelsk killing 5 nuclear weapons experts. At the funeral of the scientists the head of the nuclear arms program praised the men for their courage. The US suspec...

Russia's credit rating now BBB
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 12 Aug 2019

On August 9 Fitch Ratings lifted Russia's credit rating to BBB. Fitch said the rating move was due to sound public spending policy and a proper strategy to limit inflation. BBB is still the second lowest rating for countries that are basically stable. Standard and Poor's also rates Russia at BBB....

Pension Reform in the Senate and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Aug 2019

Minister of the Economy Paulo Guedes is expected to present the government’s Tax Reform proposal. In the Lower House, the rapporteur, Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PE), presents his workplan. In the Senate, the CCJ begins discussions on Pension Reform. This week’s Talking Points * Pension Refo...

Interest rate – new cuts ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Aug 2019

As the economy is stagnant and GDP operating below its potential (high unemployment and large industrial capacity slack), and inflation (current and expected) below the target, all the elements are in place for the Central Bank to cut the SELIC rate further. The most recent published indicators s...

Politics: What sort of opposition can endure?
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2019

At least one, and perhaps both of the main opposition parties in Mexico will hold leadership contests in the coming days and weeks, with significant implications for the political situation. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) held a national consultation last Sunday to elect a new nation...

Economics: Less inequality, but new trouble areas
MEXICO · Report · 12 Aug 2019

Last week’s release of the National Statistics Institute’s bi-annual National Household Income and Expenditure Survey (Enigh), which corresponds to the period between 2017 and 2018, and the accompanying analysis of how the various dimensions and degrees of poverty have evolved from Coneval, deliv...

Unexpected results in the Primaries - Game Over for Macri?
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 12 Aug 2019 · 2 responses

The results for the government in the obligatory, simultaneous primary elections (PASO) have been much worse than expected. The Kirchnerists obtained a landslide victory, in particular for candidates for president and governor of the province of Buenos Aires, i.e., the two most critical electoral...

BoI company survey pointing to modest growth in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 12 Aug 2019

The BoI Company Survey for Q2 2019 is pointing to modest growth. * The net total balance is only +5, below that in 2018 (+12.8). * Industry and retail trade are reporting contraction in activity, while services, construction and hotels are reporting expansion. * Manufacturing...

Calm restored in Kyrgyzstan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2019

On August 8 the ex-president Atambaev was arrested. He is facing charges of corruption and abuse of power. Atambaev's supporters had tried to prevent his arrest. Fighting led to the death of one police officer and the injury of 80 people. Order has now been restored.At the start of August there w...

Russia sees largest protests since 2011
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Aug 2019

On August 10 at least 20 000 people attended an illegal protest in Moscow. The protestors estimated the number at 50 000. The protest was against arbitrary decision to ban opposition candidates from the local elections due on September 8. Well known performers such as the rapper Oxymiron attended...

The economic implications of Ricardo Martinelli's acquittal
PANAMA · In Brief · 10 Aug 2019

Not guilty of the accusations that the Attorney General office (Ministerio Público, MP) presented against former president Ricardo Martinelli (July 2009-July 2014): illegal wiretapping of citizens and embezzlement of public funds. This was the unanimous verdict of three judges on Friday evening, ...

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