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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Negotiations, sanctions and worries
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Aug 2019

Respecting the secrecy imposed by Norway, government and opposition representatives have been negotiating in total confidentiality. The Norwegian Foreign Ministry's communiqué dated 2 August 2019 suggested there had been progress but agreements on critical issues were still pending. It emphasized...

China’s shadow banking flashpoint: wealth management products
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 09 Aug 2019

The weakest link in China’s financial system is the size and growth of the financial system’s wealth management products (WMPs). The property market may be the shakiest aspect of the real economy, but on the financing side, WMPs are a high-risk funding source. The CNY29 trillion outstanding WMPs ...

SAUDI: Latest data show the economy remains firm as fiscal easing increases but global headwinds will continue to weigh on equities
GULF COUNTRIES · In Brief · 09 Aug 2019

July PMI data shows the non-oil economy remains strong, consistent with the latest Q2 fiscal data, which revealed a deficit that had widened to USD9bn.The authorities are pursuing accommodative fiscal policy to prop up growth despite a global oil demand shock weighing on oil prices. However, refo...

Lower House concludes Pension Reform vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Aug 2019

The Lower House on August 7 concluded voting on Pension Reform. The proposal now moves to the Senate. In the Senate, there are fewer instances for deliberation on a constitutional amendment, which makes progress of the proposal less complex and swifter. The Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC,...

Clashes in Kyrgyzstan as ex-president defies government
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

The capital of Kyrgyzstan saw street brawls on August 7 as supporters of the ex-president clashed with the police. Former president Almazbek Atambaev is wanted in court on charges of abuse of power. Atambaev is holed up in his compound just outside the capital Bishkek and refusing to obey subpoen...

CPI-inflation down in July, convenient for the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

The headline CPI-inflation rate for July has been reported at 3.3% yoy this morning, just slightly down from 3.4% yoy in the previous month. Analysts, including us, expected no change at all. To a great extent, the little positive surprise came from the fact that fuel prices fell by 0.2% mom in J...

Another disappointing quarter
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

When we forecasted a 5.9% GDP growth rate for 2019 at the start of the year, many commented that we were too bearish; after all, it is an election year. Now, with 2Q19 GDP growth reported at 5.5%, even lower than 1Q19’s 5.6%, were we in fact too optimistic? Latest data show a marked deceleration ...

​East of Euphrates: Is it settled now?
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Aug 2019

It has long been one of my most tiring mottos that “Turkey can’t pull out of Syria”, because surrendering the neighbor to Assad and PKK-affiliated Kurdish entity YPG-PYD would earnestly create problems of survival in the long run. At the very least, the nearly 4 million strong Syrian refugee popu...

Gripped by political uncertainty
PERU · Report · 07 Aug 2019

We project 2019 growth at just 2.6%, but deterioration of the political situation, and the perception that an anti-system candidate could become the next president, could further damage growth prospects. In addition, international turbulence could affect emerging countries, including Peru. On the...

Cortizo hit the ground running in economic and financial policies… while the economy continues to slide
PANAMA · Report · 06 Aug 2019

July was an active month for “Nito” Cortizo’s government. He visited international banks in New York to explain the government’s strategy to eliminate Panama from the gray list of non-cooperating countries in matters of money laundering after its inclusion (again) in June of this year. Also, the ...

With Medina’s retreat, Abinader likeliest to become president
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 06 Aug 2019

President Danilo Medina announced that he’d given up all efforts to run for a third consecutive term. Though he said his decision was motivated by his respect for the rules of the game, he in truth threw in the towel because he couldn’t achieve his goal. And he hasn’t permanently given up. Now...

It’s not whether to cut or not but by how much
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 06 Aug 2019

There is speculation about the possibility that the Monetary Board (MB) is prepared to cut policy rates by 50bp this year. It seems that the question before the MB on Thursday is not whether to cut or not but how to space the 50bp over the remaining five months.In our note last month, we noted th...

Russia's efforts to de-dollarize are slowly succeeding
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 06 Aug 2019 · 1 response

Russia is successfully reducing its use of the USD. Putin is determined to make his country less vulnerable to US sanctions. Last year Russia got rid of half its USD holdings. However, there is only so far Russia can go in de-dollarizing since the USD is the go-to currency in so many sectors espe...

The positive agenda, President Bolsonaro’s popularity and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 05 Aug 2019

The Lower House may conclude voting on Pension Reform, sending the text to the Senate. Caixa releases the calendar for withdrawals from FGTS and PIS/PASEP accounts; the government estimates an injection of R$ 28 billion in the economy this year. On Thursday, IBGE releases inflation data for July....

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Aug 2019

The political scenario continues to be guided by two basic forces: the abundant signs that President Bolsonaro is unprepared for office, and the reaction of the other branches of government and Brazilian society, trying to reduce the damages and make progress toward the reforms that are necessary...

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