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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Finally, the start of a monetary easing cycle
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Jun 2019

At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank kept the SELIC rate at 6.5% but left the door open for a cut in July, which should happen with or without approval of the pension reform by that date. Although inflation accrued over the past 12 months is above the target, reaching 4.7% in May, this is ...

London-Shanghai stock connect latest openness step
CHINA · Report · 24 Jun 2019

Growth is experiencing downward pressure. Industrial output rose just 5% y/y in May, down 0.4 pps from April, a new low rate. Investment was up 4.4% y/y, down 1.3 pps from April. The fall in investment growth is mainly driven by falling state investment, which in turn was depressed by fiscal defi...

Macro fundamentals remain shekel supportive
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Jun 2019

Highlights: Residential completions increased sharply (18% q/q) in Q1 2019. - This is supportive of softer rental prices as inventory increases. - Housing starts declined in Q1 2019 but an upward revision is likely. Job vacancies have declined in recent months. - This is mo...

​Take 2: Imamoglu (CHP) sweeps Yildirim (AKP),opening a can of worms for everyone
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Jun 2019

09:30 Istanbul time With some answers to the questions in my head pursuant to the astounding victory of Ekrem Imamoglu over Binali Yildirim, I decided to publish an update in the morning to serve our audience in Asia, Turkey and Europe, which is preliminary and will be updated—I assume—within 24 ...

​Imamoglu (CHP) sweeps Yildirim (AKP), opening a can of worms for everyone
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2019

It was over by 7:30 pm Istanbul time. Ekrem Imamoglu beat Binali Yildirim by a 54-45% margin, or a difference of 780K votes, delivering his party its first significant victory in a decade or so. In his acceptance speech Imamoglu sounded humble and conciliatory, promising to work for all citizens ...

Unrest in Georgia leads to flight ban by Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jun 2019

On June 20 serious disturbances erupted in Georgia. A Russian politician named Sergei Gavrilov was invited to Georgia as part of an official Russian delegation. He was addressing a conference for Orthodox Christian countries. Some Georgians objected to the Russian politician's presence especially...

Putin's Direct Line shows concern over living standards
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jun 2019

On June 20 President Putin did his annual direct line. Anyone was able to call and question him. This has always transfixed the nation. The president fielded calls about Ivan Golunov. Golunov is the investigative journalist who was a victim of the police fabricating evidence against him. The pres...

A quick econ data update
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2019

As we will not be publishing a weekly update this Sunday because of the elections, we are providing a quick rundown of the recent data releases today. As we noted in yesterday’s note, we shall update our audience on final election results on Monday. April Industrial Production Headline indust...

Hong Kong protests, the trade war and the Chinese leadership
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 21 Jun 2019

The protests in Hong Kong and the failure thus far in the trade war may have a positive impact on China’s domestic economy and decision making. The Communist Party, and Xi Jinping, are more flexible than many observers give it credit, and small-scale economic reform and global integration may be ...

President Ramaphosa launches his government's vision for South Africa's 6th Democratic Administration
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 20 Jun 2019

With the heavy weight of nation's expectations and hope on his shoulders, President Ramaphosa delivered his second State of Nation Address (SONA) this year- technically his first SONA as the elected president of the country. As expected, his focus was primarily on the economy and growth revival. ...

​Istanbul elections: Final words
TURKEY · In Brief · 20 Jun 2019

With 4 days left to go to the crucial Istanbul municipal re-elections, I wanted to gather all the poll evidence and answer FAQs.There are other issues on the horizon, such as Bloomberg news of Washington policy establishment mulling what type of S-400 sanctions to levy on Turkey, and TRNC declari...

A new broom sweeps clean
UKRAINE · Report · 19 Jun 2019 · 1 response

​Ukraine on June 14th placed €1 billion in Eurobonds: a piece of incredibly good news, amid messy domestic developments. The country seems to look more attractive from the outside than from the hills of Kyiv​. Ukraine is undergoing a kind of creeping revolution—a destruction of the traditional...

South Africa remains in suspense: Will Ramaphosa’s June 20, 2019, SONA help boost the state of the economy?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Jun 2019

On Thursday, June 20, 2019, President Ramaphosa will deliver the first State of the Nation Address (SONA) of the 6th Parliament, themed “Let's grow South Africa together as we celebrate 25 years of freedom”. This will be his third SONA. The first and second SONAs were mainly centered around stron...

Duma trying to outlaw foreign capital payment processing
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Jun 2019

The Duma (Russian Parliament) is proposing a ban on Russian companies collaborating with payment processing companies that operate with foreign capital. This has caused consternation in the banking sector. The CBR has not commented officially but in private the CBR is known to be opposed. But pol...

GUATEMALA: Heading for a second round
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 18 Jun 2019

Former First Lady Sandra Torres, the presidential candidate of the social democratic party National Unity of Hope (UNE), won the first round of the presidential election with more than 25% of the valid vote. She defeated 18 other candidates and obtained almost double the votes of the second place...

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