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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A cry for re-election?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 07 Mar 2019

Growth continues to be remarkable, with real GDP rising 7% in 2018. Inflation, at 1.17%, fell significantly below the lower limit of the target range, and financial institutions’ performance was robust. Although the CAD increased to the equivalent of 1.4% of GDP, reserves remained strong, and FX ...

No surprises from the MPC
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2019

As expected, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today, which was the last meeting before local elections of March 31st. Recall also that this is the fourth consecutive meeting that the Bank left rates unchanged, since it had raised...

The EPP is starting an exclusion procedure against Fidesz
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Mar 2019

The European People's Party's management has just announced that it is starting an exclusion procedure against Fidesz immediately, after 13 member parties from nine different countries initiated to exclude PM Orbán's party from the organisation. The EPP's rulebook says that such a procedure must ...

Tepid GDP growth for South Africa in 2018
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 05 Mar 2019

​Despite South Africa’s exiting a technical recession in the third quarter of 2018 when GDP recorded (an upwardly revised) 2.6% q/q growth rate (previously 2.2%), the country’s economic growth remains anemic and still insufficient to make a meaningful dent on unemployment, poverty and inequality....

Guaidó's appointees
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Mar 2019

Guaidó is setting the scene for implementation of Plan País, the interim government’s stabilization program. Protecting Venezuelan assets abroad and securing heavy upfront funding are top priorities and his appointments are steps towards those goals. First, on February 13 the National Assembly ap...

The National People’s Congress: Worrying assumptions about revenue in 2019
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Mar 2019

China’s annual National People’s Congress provides a window into the thinking of the government about its plans for the year. Both the assumptions and omissions are a valuable tool for forecasting China’s economic trajectory. The Ministry of Finance’s report on the economy outlined by Premier ...

Inflation now within target
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Mar 2019

As we had expected, inflation fell from 4.4% in January to 3.8% in February, within the BSP’s 2-4% target. The month-on-month inflation rate was steady at 0.2, mainly reflecting the impact of higher oil fuel prices, including the contribution of higher excise taxes on oil. Food prices meanwhile c...

Budget Secretary is new BSP Chief
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2019

In a surprise move, President Duterte last night decided that his budget Secretary, Benjamin Diokno, would be the best man to head the BSP. The Secretary is well regarded as an academic and technocrat whose field of expertise is public finance. Although untested in the area of banking and financi...

New signs of further slowing
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2019

A range of indicators published in recent weeks appears to foreshadow a more significant deceleration of diverse production and aggregate demand components. Industrial production fell an annual 2.5% in December, the sector’s worst percentage variation since November 2009, as the drag of a long de...

Politics: Good news and bad on the National Guard
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2019

In the last two weeks the debate over the administration’s National Guard proposal took a totally unexpected turn as members of Congress unanimously voted for a consensus proposal that resolved many points that had drawn strenuous objections. Key changes to the original proposal by the admini...

Monetæ Pax
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Mar 2019

​As usual, at this time of the year, Argentine politics and economic activity wake up from their summer lull. Friday's opening of the ordinary 2019 congressional session was the official kick-off. President Macri’s State of the Union address was a firm defense of his government’s achievements, de...

The Presidency sets up a Special Tribunal at Special Investigation Unit (SIU) to recover stolen funds
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Mar 2019

Year in and year out, large amounts of money are lost to the state from corruption or irregular spending. This is one of the main reasons the Special Investigation Unit (SIU) was established in 1996 in terms of the Special Investigating Units and Special Tribunal Act, (Act No 74 of 1996). The mai...

Who’s buying China’s domestic bonds?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Mar 2019

One large part of China’s growing credit stimulus has been the bond market. A significant portion of this increased investment has come from the private sector. But how much? And how stable and transparent is this source of funding? We analyzed data on China’s bond market to understand the cha...

Inflation eases further, but looking sticky
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2019

Consumer prices rose by 0.16%, m/m, in February, somewhat lower than the market consensus of some 0.4%-0.5%, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence easing further to 19.7%, from 20.4% in January. The 12-month domestic-PPI inflation continued to drop as well, to 29.6% from 32.9% during this period,...

According to BoI research, shekel appreciation is expected to slow inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Mar 2019

Recent PC indicators point to some deceleration, supportive of weak inflationary pressure. Policy rates will remain stable at 0.25% as the MPC aims to push inflation towards 2%. Despite steady growth in Israel at its potential growth rate, the MPC sees global downside risks. A BoI research paper ...

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