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London trip notes
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2019

We were both in London from Tuesday through Friday to participate in a dinner event with some 20 experts/investors, which was hosted by TD Securities, organized jointly with Global Source Partners. During this time, we also got to visit several buy and sell-side financial firms touring separately...

Rostec joins pilot customs project with China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2019

RT Invest Transport Systems and Platon will jointly run a pilot project controlling freight and passenger traffic between Russia and China. RT Invest Transport System is a subsidiary of Rostec. Platon is a toll system.There have been several attempts to improve Trans-Eurasia roads and capitalize ...

An ambitious plan from the MNB on government debt
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Mar 2019

On February 27, MNB governor Matolcsy, who is reappointed now for another 6-year term in his office, starting with March 4 2019, revealed an ambitious and somewhat perplexing plan regarding government debt. He said that in the future, all government debt 'will have to be' in domestic hands, and t...

The 2018 results are in
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2019

Economic ActivityAccording to the figures published today by the Comptroller General, real GDP grew 3.7% during 2018. Our estimate was 3.8% for the year. The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and some international organizations estimated growth at 4.2%. This result confirms the slowdown that...

A president under pressure
PERU · Report · 01 Mar 2019

The government has started to feel the brunt of increased demands for action in several public policy areas, intensified by an abnormal El Niño-driven rainy season that has demanded the special attention of most of the Cabinet. The idea that President Martin Vizcarra has made the fight against co...

An extremely slow recovery
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Mar 2019

​The Brazilian economy is still experiencing an extremely slow cyclical recovery. This is not due to the absence of monetary stimulus: after all, the neutral real interest rate perceived by the market is in the ballpark of 4%, above the one-year ex ante real rate, which is the figure that is rele...

Fiscal moves require some clarity
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Mar 2019 · 1 response

The three themes dominating politics are President Iván Duque’s recovered popularity, Colombia’s role in the Venezuelan debacle and the future of the FARC-related Special Jurisdiction for Peace (JEP). Duque’s approval ratings have benefited from his recent moves pleasing the uribista right, namel...

We expect solid growth for 2019: Copper exports and private investment will be the engines
PANAMA · Forecast · 01 Mar 2019

Our GDP growth rate estimate for 2018 (3.8%) was lower than the government´s and that of several international organizations (above 5% on average). The official figures for the complete year will be published during the first week of March, in addition to the balance of payments results. The ...

​Indonesia: Arguing the accuracy of the national account statistics
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Feb 2019

The Indonesian Central Board of Statistics released in early February the national accounts data for the Q4 2018 performance of the economy. As predicted in our earlier report, in Q4 2018 the economy was reported to have grown at the rate of 5.18%, which led to overall growth of 5.17% for the ent...

Bolsonaro’s support in the Lower House totaled 54.82% in February
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Feb 2019

A study by Arko Advice shows that the average support for bills backed by the Jair Bolsonaro administration in the Lower House totaled 54.82% in February. Eleven nominal votes were analyzed. The study only considered votes for which the government leadership provided guidance as to whether to vot...

Are Chinese stock gains sustainable?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Feb 2019 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: * The Chinese stock market may well continue to deliver outsized returns for the rest of 2019, and if I had to bet, I would bet that it will perform well, but the recent rise has been all technical and there are no fundamental reasons driving the bull...

COSTA RICA: Hesitation could hurt
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2019

Costa Rica’s economic outlook in 2019 is expected to be similar to that of 2018, in terms of the main macroeconomic indicators. The fiscal reform package approved in December 2018 was significant enough to curve negative expectations through H2 2018, when uncertainty and lack of confidence over t...

Draft of DASKA published
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 27 Feb 2019

The US Congress has published a draft bill of the Defending American Security from Kremlin Aggression Act. It was introduced by both Republicans and Democrats. The big names behind it include Lindsey Graham. The bill was drafted on 13 February but until now the text was secret. The text is as one...

Matolcsy to remain MNB governor, Pleschinger to stay on the MC for another six years
HUNGARY · In Brief · 27 Feb 2019

Parliament's Economic Committee voted to support another six-year term for György Matolcsy as governor of the MNB yesterday, after PM Orbán proposed Mr. Matolcsy's reappointment to the president of the republic. The head of the Economic Committee also said that the committee's Fidesz majority was...

Areas of financial stress
INDIA · Report · 26 Feb 2019

This note presents an update on the stress in the financial system and its implications for the economy. The stress in the economy started with a slow deterioration of the balance sheet of non-banks in 2011. About one third of the non-financial firm balance sheet is now under credit stress, in...

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