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The Monetary Council today: no policy change, eyebrows let just slightly lower
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Feb 2019

It seems the Monetary Council does everything to provide the market with as little guidance as possible. There was once again no policy change announced after today's monthly rate-setting meeting, and they did care not to make any marked change in the language of the communiqué. In one little cha...

The DA unveils its 2019 manifesto - the manifesto for change, it says!
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2019

The Democratic Alliance (DA), led by Mmusi Maimane, launched its 2019 National Elections manifesto on Saturday, February 23, 2019. The DA remains South Africa’s biggest opposition party, but its “appeal” started to slowly fizzle out after it was beset by problems since the 2016 local government e...

Economics: Social policy coherence, loose ends
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Social policy has long been a central theme of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and on the presidential campaign trail he largely focused on cash transfer programs and fighting corruption. Almost three months into his presidential administration his discourse has evolved somewhat, but not much has be...

Plenty of time for Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2019

This is the week before Carnaval, with few important votes in Congress, but Pension Reform is still on the agenda. On Tuesday, February 26, Jair Bolsonaro discusses the issue with party leaders. Lower House President Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ) attempts to install the Constitution Committee, the first ...

Essential CIS Politics: US Senate to discuss more anti-Russian sanctions
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 25 Feb 2019

​Highlights: * The Russian economy is progressing slowly, with public discontent over wages * Uzbekistan overhauls ministries and issues its first Eurobond * The US pullout from Afghanistan is unlikely to impact the region significantly

Russian Ministry of Finance proposes procurement reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2019

The Russian Finance Minister (Anton Siluanov) has ordered his civil servants and the treasury to overhaul the public procurement procedure. Like many aspects of government it is byzantine in its complexity and slow, which Siluanov publicly acknowledges. Streamlining this will help the government ...

Exchange rate and pension reform
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Bets on the exchange rate are frequent, and in general extreme. In July 2018 and thereabouts, some observers were predicting the real would be as weak as R$ 4.50/US$, and now some affirm that if the pension reform proposal (with what terms?) is approved, the real will strengthen to R$ 3.00/US$. B...

Politics: Dismantling autonomy one cut at a time
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Since taking office, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s daily morning press conferences have become his bully pulpit. The week before last he narrowed his sights on several autonomous government bodies, with the most intense barrages reserved for the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) and it...

Pension reform and fiscal consolidation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Feb 2019

If the pension reform proposal sent to Congress by the Bolsonaro administration is approved in full, it will generate savings of a bit over R$ 1 trillion in 10 years, a larger figure than that of the original proposal from the Temer government. Any dilution of this proposal by Congress will have ...

Financial indicators reviving
CHINA · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Due to the seasonal lack of comparable y/y data in the month of Chinese New Year, we can only analyze data from imports and exports, and on financial conditions and price levels. Prices are trending downwards. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods has been slowing for the past three mont...

Rate hold decision today on new forward guidance aiming for 2% inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Recent economic indicators point to steady growth near potential (3%) at end-2018. Nevertheless, some slack in the labor market and the sharp decline in the PMI point to softer growth ahead. We expect a rate hold decision today, on the new forward guidance aiming for 2% inflation. Foreigners wer...

An election to end all elections
TURKEY · Report · 24 Feb 2019

The Politics Section begins with a brief exposition to introduce the rival camps in Turkey at the eve of March 31st local elections, which boils down to AKP-MHP versus CHP-IYIP, the latter with tacit support of pro-Kurdish HDP in non-Kurdish majority provinces. Poll data, more scarce compared to ...

Another upgrade to BBB/Stable, from Fitch Ratings this time
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2019

Just one week after S&P's similar move, Fitch Ratings upgraded the government of Hungary to BBB/Stable on February 22, from the previous BBB-/Positive level, at which Hungary had been staying since November 2017. The agency's reasoning was quite similar to S&P's: they were impressed by the recent...

The passing of BSP Governor Nestor Espenilla
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Feb 2019

Many had surmised that his job, particularly stressful last year with inflation on the uptrend, was probably making BSP Governor Espenilla's tongue cancer worse. His intermittent medical leaves signaled a daunting disease. But even though people thought it was only a matter of time before he resi...

Concerns at the top despite high credit growth
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Feb 2019

Premier Li Keqiang warned about excessive credit growth in a meeting at the State Council this week. The January data would seem to confirm the excess growth. Li’s comments suggest conflict within the senior levels of government about the degree of monetary expansion. We just spent several days i...

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