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Three major Russian food and drink retailers merge
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 23 Jan 2019

Krasnoye i Beloye, Dixy and Bristol are merging. Dixy is a food retailer owned by Igor Kesaev. Krasnoye i Beloye is a chain of liquor stores. Bristol is also a chain of liquor stores and is owned by Sergey Katsiyev. Dixy and Bristol will own 51% of the new company. Krasnoye i Beloye will own 49%....

Good growth momentum despite political chaos
PERU · Report · 22 Jan 2019

Since winning ample public support in a fall showdown over judicial and political reform, President Martín Vizcarra has successfully positioned himself as Peru’s anti-corruption leader. The leaders of both major opposition parties, Fuerza Popular (FP) and APRA, are now under high-profile investig...

Investment in Uzbekistan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Jan 2019

Uzbekistan's economy is attracting funds and one based in Asia, Asia Frontier Capital, will launch in Uzbekistan in March. The economy is diverse and sectors such as oil, gas, coal mining and cement offer handsome returns. Listed stocks are cheap and trade around 3 to 5 times price-to-earnings. B...

Possible time frames for Pension Reform and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Jan 2019 · 1 response

President Jair Bolsonaro embarks on his first trip abroad as President. Accompanied by cabinet ministers, he will take part in the Davos World Economic Forum. The VP, Hamilton Mourão, takes office as interim president. Bolsonaro returns on the 25th and, on the 28th, will undergo surgery in São Pa...

Underlying inflation remained fairly subdued in 2018
ISRAEL · Report · 21 Jan 2019

Inflation remained below target in 2018 for the fifth straight year, reaching 0.8% y/y. Core inflation reached 0.7% similar to last year, despite a weaker shekel and wage pressure. We expect inflation in 2019 to reach 1.1%, assuming fiscal consolidation following the elections spills over to inf...

Politics: Gasoline shortages, an initial crisis
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2019

The government’s decision in late December to launch a nationwide crackdown on the widespread theft of gasoline and other fuels has turned into a crisis in which many gasoline stations were left with only sporadic partial deliveries or without fuel entirely for days on end, especially in central ...

Economics: Energy sector as a risk factor
MEXICO · Report · 21 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Although the energy sector no longer serves as a dominant source of public sector revenues, or even of the country’s trade performance, as Mexico has been running a petroleum deficit in recent years, it retains its central importance to the broader economy (5.3% of GDP; 415,533 direct jobs), whil...

The recession in Argentina and industrial production in Brazil
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Jan 2019

The extreme lethargy of Brazil’s cyclical recovery is also accounted by the weak industrial performance. Even with the substantial decrease of the real interest rate and the relatively weaker trade-weighted real exchange rate, industrial output has not presented signs of reaction yet. With the hi...

Oil companies angry with Rosgvardiya
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2019

Four major oil companies have complained to the Russian Government about Rosgvardiya. Rosgvardiya was founded in 2016 as a government security service and its regulates security for oil companies as well as providing such services for oil companies. Oil companies believe that Rosgvardiya is being...

2019: Drowning by hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Hyperinflation in 2018 was fierce. The annual inflation rate closed at 2 million percent (our base case) after accelerating steadily throughout the year. Consumers face frequent and intense price increases, distortions in relative prices and intermittent shortages of basic consumer goods. Thei...

Stuck between austerity and poor voter sentiment
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jan 2019 · 2 responses

It is incumbent upon the Turkey observer and investor to understand the import of a victory in municipal elections for the ruling AKP-MHP alliance. Upsets in Ankara and/or Istanbul, or a visible drop in the joint vote of the alliance could jeopardize its future in power. This is the framework in ...

Russia switches to buying Yuan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2019

The Bank of Russia announced on 9 January that in June it dumped USD 101 Billion in holdings. Reserves have been shifted to USD 44 Billion worth of RMB, USD 44 Billion worth of EUR and USD 21 Billion worth of JPY. This reduces exposure to US sanctions.

Essential CIS Politics: American withdrawal from Syria would be a mixed blessing for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2019

* Russia’s economy is growing but modestly. * American withdrawal from Syria would be a mixed blessing for Russia. * Azerbaijan is striving to diversify its economy. Trump announced that the US is withdrawing troops from Syria. This is welcome news in Russia since the Americans sometimes ...

Nearly excellent current performance, moderately positive medium-term prospects
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jan 2019

In our new quarterly forecast, we do not take into account the possible negative impacts of major international economic, financial or political debacles such as e.g. a potential no-deal Brexit on 29 March. Even though the British parliament’s NO vote to the government’s Brexit proposal a few day...

A sustainable recovery that elections could upend
UKRAINE · Forecast · 18 Jan 2019

Ukraine’s economy was clearly experiencing a healthy recovery in 2018. GDP sped up to +3.2% y/y, from +2.5% y/y in 2017. Inflation slowed to +9.8% ytd from +13.7%. The hryvnia remained largely stable, losing a negligible 2.2% on average through the year, and even strengthening in the last days of...

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