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Palocci plea bargain deal could harm Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2018

There is a new fact in the presidential race, and this time it hurts the PT. Today (October 1, 2018), Judge Sérgio Moro lifted the secrecy of the plea bargain deal signed by former Minister under the PT, Antonio Palocci. Arko had previously alerted clients about the possibility of the plea barga...

Economic data mixed but some positive signs, and AMLO holds all the cards, for now
MEXICO · Forecast · 01 Oct 2018

There was plenty of data published this past month confirming a further slowing of the Mexican economy. Between April and June, GDP decelerated from levels of the previous five quarters year, a development that reinforced our January forecast that growth will slow to 1.9% this year. Factory acti...

Countdown to the elections and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2018

This is the final week of the campaign before the first round of the elections (October 7). Electoral ads will continue to air on TV and radio until Thursday, October 4, the date of the last televised presidential debate, which will air on TV Globo. Several electoral polls will be released throug...

Finally, good news on free trade
MEXICO · In Brief · 01 Oct 2018

Finally, after two years of uncertainty --created by President Trump-- and 13 months of hard negotiations a trilateral trade pact between Mexico, Canada and the US was agreed at the last minute. In the future this agreement will be known as USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement). Legal texts have jus...

Is it or is it not a Tax Reform?
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Oct 2018 · 1 response

It was common knowledge that the proposed budget submitted by the outgoing Juan Manuel Santos administration featured a drastic cut in public investment, to lower the central government deficit from 3.1% of GDP this year to the mandated 2.4% of GDP in 2019. This would require either budget cuts o...

Monetary policy: For now, no changes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Oct 2018

In October a new president will be elected, and the continuing success of monetary policy in meeting the inflation target will depend on the new government’s guidelines for conduction of fiscal policy. Irrespective of who is elected, the SELIC rate will be raised at some point, since it is below ...

Bolsonaro and Haddad closer to the second round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Oct 2018

The latest Datafolha poll shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT) are moving closer to a second round contest. Weathering the attacks from his opponents, Bolsonaro still remains in the lead in the electoral polls. Haddad has consolidated himself as the runner-up.

Year end is coming: the ÁKK is positioning the debt ratio
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2018

As usual, year end coming soon, the usual question is raised again: how on earth will the government manage to generate a further small reduction of its debt ratio by the last day of December. In 2018, this problem looks a little bit more serious than last year. The central government's debt, the...

Few tangible results from the roadshow
TURKEY · Report · 30 Sep 2018

As one of us is technically on holiday, and the other is inundated with meetings and travels, we keep this Weekly short, promising a more comprehensive Monthly for next Sunday. There was no progress towards a truce between Turkey and the US during President Erdogan’s visit to the UN. Contrary ...

The Cabinet postpones gas prices’ increase
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Sep 2018

Yesterday, on September 28 the Cabinet one more time postponed potential gas prices’ increase, according to local news agencies. Gas prices will remain unchanged till October 18. Everyone anticipates decision on gas prices. That was demand from the IMF for the fourth review of the EFF program. Th...

De-acceleration continues in 2018, and China-Panamá relations are under scrutiny
PANAMA · Report · 28 Sep 2018

Real GDP grew 3.1% y/y in Q2 2018, continuing its downward trend. Accumulated growth during the first half of the year was 3.7%. During the second quarter, the month-long labor strike in the construction sector (around 15 percent of GDP) brought activity to a halt; therefore, the positive surpris...

Deleveraging amid trade war
CHINA · Report · 27 Sep 2018

Growth is weak, but can still be viewed as stable. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, up 0.1 pps from July and down 0.5 pps from Q2. Fixed asset investment was up 4.1%, and negative in real terms; it could decline further in the future. CPI was up 2.3% y/y in August, and up 0.5 pps from May. ...

Lukewarm debate on SBT favors Bolsonaro and Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2018

The presidential debate on SBT/Folha/UOL was a “lukewarm” affair. Despite being targeted by attacks at several points in the debate, neither Jair Bolsonaro of the PSL (who was not present as he is still recovering in the hospital) nor Fernando Haddad (PT) suffered any big losses.

New IMF agreement and Monetary Policy
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Sep 2018

Yesterday, after local market closed, Treasury Minister Nicolás Dujovne announced, together with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, the new outline of the recently renegotiated Stand-by agreement. The agreement starts to have effect once the board of directors of the IMF approves it, which ...

​Another “strong” 50bp rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Sep 2018 · 1 response

In the wake of the higher than expected August inflation and continuing monetary tightening in the U.S., the Monetary Board today raised its policy rates by another 50bp, bringing the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) rate to 4.5%. This is the Monetary Board’s fourth successive rate hike, with i...

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