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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Early elections?
TURKEY · Report · 18 Mar 2018

Early Sunday morning Turkish commandos entered the center of Afrin to join what we think will be a bloody urban warfare. Since we are not war correspondents, there is not much to write about Afrin, except expressing a hope for minimal casualties. Instead, we turn our attention to the question ...

2018–2019 forecast: Hyperinflation, recession, and default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Our outlook for 2018–2019 has the economy crumbling and hyperinflation worsening under Maduro’s policies. GDP shrinks by a quarter over two years, and inflation easily reaches six digits by 2019. Real wages and interest rates plunge to unprecedented depths. Oil prices rise to $54 a barrel, but ex...

Mexico’s economy in 2018: Moderate deceleration alongside financial volatility
MEXICO · Presentation · 14 Mar 2018 · 3 responses

The year 2018 includes a growth slowdown, financial volatility and growing uncertainty into the election. Mexico faces three main economic risks, two of them since 2017...

South Africa's credit rating on the mend
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 14 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Quarter One of 2018 has been a turning point for South Africa's political economy outlook. Despite all predictions to the contrary, Jacob Zuma is no longer the president, and the shift to President Ramaphosa has been relatively smooth. The cloud of desperation has been replaced by newly found opt...

The banking crisis is changing shape
INDIA · Report · 13 Mar 2018

The banking crisis is mutating (going beyond excessive leverage to new concerns about operational risk) and deepening (the problems of many banks are getting worse). The banking system is increasingly pulling back from its role in the economy. In a remarkable decision a few hours ago, the RBI ban...

Eleven weeks is an eternity
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Mar 2018 · 1 response

A one-liner summarizing the results of last Sunday’s congressional elections would be that political extremes were strengthened, and congressional power has been fragmented. Indeed, the two party primaries gave momentum to the more radicalized views of the political right and left. Nearly six mil...

Poroshenko criticizes IMF as Stockholm rules in favor of Naftogaz
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Mar 2018

Recent weeks brought both good and bad news for Ukraine. First, the litigation between Gazprom and Naftogaz finally ended, with a ruling in favor of Naftogaz, obliging Gazprom to compensate the Ukrainian energy corporation to the tune of $2.56 billion. Gazprom responded by launching an appeal, an...

Campaign with no struggle
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

President Putin has put Russia’s relations with the West at the center of his unofficial campaign. He did not participate in any of the debates, and overall, the pre-election landscape looks as if all other participants have been competing against one other, with none of them anywhere near compet...

Election on the agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

Politicians continue to take advantage of the window to change parties ahead of the October elections; this window closes on April 7. The Lower House will try to vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions. Federal judges will go on strike on Thursday, March 15, in defense of their ho...

Confirmed: NFPS deficit reached 3.2% of GDP, 0.9% off-target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Mar 2018

The Central Bank and the budget office have finally published, and almost simultaneously, the figures of the budget result for 2017. The Central Bank published figures for the Central Government, for the decentralized and autonomous institutions, for the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) and for...

Forecast for 2018 and 2019
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Mar 2018

In this report we present the projections for the key economic variables in 2018 and 2019. GDP growth should reach 3% in 2018 and again in 2019, and the slow economic recovery will keep inflation below the target, at 3.7% in 2018 and 4.25% in 2019. This year, the SELIC rate will likely fall to 6....

Economics: Trade-war talk rocks Nafta round
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2018

Negotiators did not come away empty handed March 5 from the seventh round of Nafta modernization talks as progress was achieved on numerous fronts, and four out of 30 chapters have been fully exhausted to all three countries' satisfaction. But there was probably less progress than Mexican negotia...

Toll of the government attack on Anaya
MEXICO · Report · 12 Mar 2018 · 1 response

With three weeks to go before presidential candidates can resume campaigning the contest has shifted to prosecutorial offices and dueling scandals. No new significant information has emerged regarding allegations that Ricardo Anaya may have been engaged in a money-laundering scheme, although the ...

Falling inflation and asymmetry of risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

Inflation is continuing to fall, and even if the SELIC rate is cut again by 25 basis points at the next COPOM meeting, taking it to 6.5%, inflation will be well below the target in 2018, and close 2019 at 4.25%. There are risks in both directions, but at this moment the most likely scenario for 2...

Corporate stress, idiosyncratic risks
TURKEY · Report · 11 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Turkish Forces reached the gates of Afrin City by Saturday, where the base-case scenario entails intense street-by-street fighting, which will cost many lives. Ankara is determined to root out PYD-YPG presence from Syria and PKK from Iraq. While such a posture may be deemed necessary to secure th...

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