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Into The 4th Episode, Fasten Seat Belts
TURKEY · Report · 21 Nov 2017

The lira has been weakening sharply lately, having broken the previous peak in basket terms, which we had experienced during the so-called “Trump reflation trade” (Graph 1). The Bank has initiated (TL-settled) forward F/X auctions over the weekend. Before that, it tweaked ROCs with a view to prov...

Economics: Same Sort of Budget in 2018
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2017

There were no real surprises in the final version of the 2018 federal spending bill. In addition to the usual tweaks to budget assumptions regarding projected export oil prices and foreign exchange rates in order to anticipate greater revenues to fund spending next year, the most notable changes ...

Politics: Desolate Outlook for Mexican Police
MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2017

In our new series on problems with security and the criminal justice system in Mexico, this week we take a broad look at police institutions at all three levels of government (federal, state and municipal). A lack of federal oversight and legislative gridlock have worsened the already deplorable ...

MNB Has Limited Scope for Further Loosening in November
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Nov 2017

Following S&P’s similar decision in late August, Fitch Ratings improved the outlook on its BBB- sovereign long-term debt rating to Positive from Stable in early November. Previously, Moody’s refrained from touching its own Baa3/Stable rating in late October. So Hungary has just won a 2-1 vote to ...

Elections in Chile: Shaking things up
CHILE · Report · 20 Nov 2017

Chile woke up on Monday trying to digest the results of a surprising congressional and presidential election. Following international trends, the polls, it seems, got it quite wrong. Although most expected the second round in the presidential race to include Sebastián Piñera and Alejandro Guillie...

Week of November 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Nov 2017

The government may announce changes to the ministerial team with the objective of obtaining the support to vote on Pension Reform. According to Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, this week will be decisive for the reform proposal. The rapporteur, Rep. Arthur Maia (PPS-BA) may present a new text...

An Eventful Week in South Africa and the Region
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 20 Nov 2017

This week is set to be a critical week for South Africa and the SADC (Southern African Development Community) region. Over the past few days, Zimbabwe has gone from a police-state dictatorship to a never-seen-before popular peaceful uprising, assisted by the national army, trying to push out Robe...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2017

Turko-American relationship is on the brink. There is very strong (though not conclusive)evidence that gold trader Mr. Reza Zarrab has decided to confess to charges of violating Iran sanctions, which might implicate some Turkish banks and members of AKP elite. AKP is furious, portraying the trial...

The rebound has begun
PERU · Forecast · 16 Nov 2017

Our latest base scenario is more upbeat. It expects the global economy to grow faster than 3.5% in coming years; for domestic conflicts to work themselves out; and for a more robust than expected domestic economic rebound from the damage caused by the El Niño and the Odebrecht shocks. Signific...

GDP Surprise
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 16 Nov 2017

3Q17 GDP raced past analysts’ expectations, growing 6.9% vs. the median 6.5% forecast. Credit goes to net exports which contributed 1.2ppt to GDP growth as export growth (17%) outpaced import growth (14%). In contrast to robust export performance, growth rates of domestic private demand, particul...

Setting the election stage
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Nov 2017

A surprise candidate entering the presidential race, national popular entertainer and journalist Ksenia Sobchak has significantly undermined Alexei Navalny’s chances to be allowed to run. Although an active opposition member in the past, Sobchak hardly constitutes a threat to the incumbent, yet s...

Support for the government in the Lower House drops in October
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Nov 2017

Average support for the Michel Temer administration in the Lower House in October dropped compared to the month of September, declining from 54.56% to 47.67%. However, support in September was inflated by the votes on Political Reform. When we exclude the Political Reform votes from analysis (sev...

Cabinet re-shuffle good for Pension Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

Bruno Araújo’s resignation from the Ministry of Cities was expected. Former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso’s recommendation that the party break with the government strengthened the group that advocated the exit. Members of the PSDB who remain in cabinet ministries – Aloysio Nunes, Foreign R...

Week of November 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Nov 2017

There will be no important votes in the Senate or activity in the Lower House due to the Wednesday holiday. Pension Reform negotiations continue. According to Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, a new text will be presented by the end of the week. On Tuesday, November 14, the deadline to join th...

Economics: Positive Impact for Social Programs
MEXICO · Report · 13 Nov 2017 · 1 response

During the previous presidential administration Mexico almost tripled the number of social programs, which climbed to 278 by 2012. Since that time, greater coordination and other factors allowed for fewer programs (down to 149 in 2017) at the same time as austerity has led to a reduction of funds...

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