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South Africa's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 25 Oct 2017

This year's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was delivered by Minister Gigaba earlier today. This was of particular interest for a variety reasons. Most importantly, this was Gigaba's maiden budget policy statement, an opportunity to assess his political economy stance. Minister Gigaba...

(Far Too Much) Optimism
CHILE · Report · 25 Oct 2017

September monthly inflation was the lowest for any September since 1928, and pushed annual inflation down to 1.5%. But this unusual figure can mostly be attributed to three specific effects, so there’s no true fall in inflationary pressures. The 12-month variation of core measures remained stable...

SA’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) Later Today
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Oct 2017

The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) is being delivered later today by the Finance Minister, Malusi Gigaba. A number of developments that affect (or could affect) the fiscus have taken place since the main budget was delivered during February 2017. Some of the more prominent events tha...

Temer Administration: A Step-by-Step Guide to the Temer Accusation Vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2017

​In the vote on the first accusation against President Michel Temer was concluded at 9:50pm. This time, aside from the President, two cabinet ministers also stand accused: Eliseu Padilha (Chief of Staff) and Moreira Franco (General Secretariat of the Presidency). Their lawyers will speak for 25 m...

Update on debt and liquidity
ECUADOR · In Brief · 24 Oct 2017 · 2 responses

In the last 10 days, $3,200 million of new financing has reliefed the liquidity crisis of the public system. From these, $2,500 million of 10-year new bonds at 8.875% and an operation for $500 with Goldman Sachs with 35 months of maturity and at Libor + 4.75% will help the Ministry of Finance to ...

Real GDP growth rate for Jan-Aug 2017: 4%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 24 Oct 2017

Yesterday, the Central Bank released figures of GDP growth which confirm that the economy continues growing below its long term rate. The Economic Activity Monthly Index (IMAE for its Spanish acronym) for the period January-August was set at 4%. Although authorities are forecasting a real GDP gro...

​Some Turkish banks are under U.S. Treasury investigation
TURKEY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2017

Turkish markets made a poor start to the week, partly driven by Dollar Index strength, but definitely demoralized by the ongoing controversy over potential fines by the U. S. Department of Treasury to be levied on six Turkish banks. In particular the severe plunge in the banking index of the Ista...

Week of October 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Oct 2017

A decisive week for President Michel Temer – the Lower House votes on the second accusation presented by the PGR against him and two cabinet ministers. To vote in favor of the president, allies are presenting demands that range from the removal of the Congonhas (SP) airport from the concessions p...

What Do Economists and the Yield Curve Have to Say About the SELIC Rate?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Oct 2017

A broad consensus exists among economists about the future of monetary policy: the SELIC rate will fall to 7% in December (with an outside chance of one or two more cuts of 25 points) and stay at that level throughout 2018. But the picture painted by the yield curve is very different, “pricing in...

Economics: No Cataclysm if NAFTA dissolves
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2017 · 1 response

The fourth round of Nafta renegotiation talks proved to be the most acrimonious to date as the United States pressed ahead with proposals that Canada and Mexico have described as red lines that they will never agree to cross, and U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his disdain for, and willing...

Politics: Frente Ciudadano por México and Zavala’s Spoiler Potential
MEXICO · Report · 23 Oct 2017

Margarita Zavala’s decision earlier this month to resign from the PAN and run for president as an independent marked a significant setback for the Citizens Front for Mexico (CFM), which has fallen into third place according to most surveys that have been made public. But we will have to wait...

The Indications from the Financial Stability Report
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Oct 2017

Recognition is practically unanimous in the financial market that the Brazilian economy has turned the corner and is now recovering, driven mainly by household consumption, in turn stimulated by the decline of the real interest rate and expansion of credit to households. However, even assuming a ...

Important snippets on today's national holiday
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Oct 2017

Today is a national holiday in Hungary, the anniversary of the 1956 revolution and uprising against the Soviet rule. Markets are closed, but life goes on, as usual. Some recent and upcoming events may be important for investors, so let us look at them just briefly:1. Moody's had a revision date f...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 22 Oct 2017

Sundays have become synonymous with the word “crisis” in Turkey. We start with unconfirmedand not too credible news of the U.S. State Department getting ready to levy fines on some Turkish banks for violating Iranian sanctions, which might disturb markets on Monday. At home, President Erdogan’...

Trying to please both God and the Devil
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Oct 2017

President Lenín Moreno’s position on the razor's edge is evidenced by his contradictory and mild decision making on important political and economic issues. The new economic program launched recently by Ministry of Finance Carlos de la Torre is no exception. Moreno’s effort to maintain his lef...

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