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Land reform requirement was dropped from the IMF memorandum, anonymous source reports
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Jul 2017

Breaking news arrived today. Anonymous source reported that President Poroshenko asked the IMF to drop agro-land circulation from agenda and the IMF (allegedly personally Christine Lagarde) satisfied the request. Allegedly the decision was already set. I’m quite skeptical to such news but I see i...

Inevitable constituent assembly won’t bring stability
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jul 2017 · 1 response

National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections are scheduled for July 30. Maduro’s call to form this body is unconstitutional, but he has support from the high court (which is stacked with loyalists), the National Guard (which is violently repressing protests), and most of his government. The p...

Funny Numbers
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jul 2017

​The new Medium Term Fiscal Framework contained few surprises. The central government’s fiscal deficit for 2017 is still estimated at 3.6% of GDP, in line with the revised fiscal rule target. That’s no mean feat, as a lot has changed this year. First, the economy will grow by less than the govern...

Encouraging Signs for Consumption Coming From the Credit Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2017

​It is very clear that on the aggregate demand side, recovery of household consumption will predominate over recovery of investments, which are still falling. An indication comes from the credit data. Unlike what has been happening with credit to businesses, which continues to contract along with...

Headline Drops Further on Food, Lira
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2017

Consumer prices dropped by 0.27% in June, m/m, which compared favorably to consensus expectation of some 0.1% increase (June 2016: 0.5%). The 12-month rate hence declined more than expected to 10.9% from 11.7% in May. Producer prices also eased to 14.9%, y/y, from 15.3% in May, but remains rather...

Justice march and Syria needs monitoring
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

I’ve returned from a 15 day business trip to USA, where I had met representatives from roughly 35 institutions. I’ll provide more details in the upcoming Weekly Report, but in a nutshell interest in the Turkey story is strong, while positioning is light, which I expect to increase only very modes...

The European Commission on possible new conditionality attached to EU transfers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

Politicians in the EU and especially in donor countries have been repeatedly talking about the need to attach tighter political conditionality to the distribution of financial grants by the European Union ("EU transfers') to member countries. This idea has come up in the context of performance on...

Tough Road for a Rebound
PERU · Forecast · 30 Jun 2017

The surprising severity of the El Niño phenomenon, and the worsening relations between Congress and the Executive branch, have moved us to revise our 2017 growth estimate. Still, these negative events are assumed to be improving with time, and the efforts for reconstruction after the climatic dis...

Rising Consumer Concerns about WMPs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Jun 2017

In May, we conducted a survey of buyers of Wealth Management Products (WMPS) in China and also examined related data on defaults from the courts and public sources. We believe the RMB 26 trillion WMP market is the most liquid and volatile within China’s financial system and would be prone to runs...

Peaceful Holiday
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Eid Mubarak is always the largest holiday in Indonesia. Celebrated after one full month of fasting, the holiday is usually filled with various celebrations, but at its center is the Homecoming Tradition, in which literally millions of people travel back to their hometowns. During this holiday ...

Economics: Slowing Trend Likely to Continue
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Data released last week on aggregate supply and demand through the first quarter of 2017 showed a 4.2% annual increase that was both better than expected and the most pronounced rise of the previous five quarters. In keeping with the trends of previous quarters, private consumption was the compon...

COSTA RICA: A Happy Ending? Not Exactly
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Costa Rica’s Central Bank succeeded in controlling FX market turmoil in May, bringing the exchange rate down from the high levels it reached by the third week of May. But pressures persist, since Central Bank FX market intervention has not been neutral over the medium and long-term, as the offici...

Watch the Supreme Tribunal, not the helicopters
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 28 Jun 2017 · 1 response

Yesterday's events are part of the government's strong propaganda and terror offensives en route to the July 30 Constituent Assembly elections.The government's main fight is now against the "original" chavismo movement which erodes its political footing. Yesterday's noise distracted public opinio...

Politics: Violence Rebounds to 2011 Highs
MEXICO · Report · 28 Jun 2017

Last week brought more bad news on the security front as the May report on crime revealed the highest absolute number of murder investigations opened in any month since the current national system of official crime statistics was launched 20 years ago. In fact, there were more such murder cases t...

Week of June 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Jun 2017

The General Prosecutor of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, is expected to present an accusation against President Michel Temer to the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Members of the Public Ministry will elect Janot’s replacement on Tuesday, June 27, as he will leave his post in September. In the Senate, ...

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