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Switching to Election Mode Again
HUNGARY · Forecast · 19 Oct 2016

Following a sharp upturn of GDP in Q2, industrial output, exports, retail sales and wages started Q3 with a moderate deceleration. However, the distribution of EU funds and even bank credit growth were accelerating. In H2, the recovery of GDP is likely to continue on the back of robust wage growt...

Politics: Policing Strains the Mexican Army
MEXICO · Report · 19 Oct 2016

Minister of National Defense, General Salvador Cienfuegos used a memorial event for soldiers recently ambushed by heavily armed criminal gunmen to complain of a lack of civilian support for the job the armed forces have had to assume since 2006 in fighting organized crime and compensating for the...

​Heads Up: Erdogan’s high wire act
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2016

I’m afraid odds of Turkey heading for one or for a series of polls have increased substantially over the last couple of days. While I’ll defer my discussion of the latter subjects to the weekly, risks in Syria and those stemming from Ankara’s insistence to insert Turkey into the Mosul rescue oper...

Off to China
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Oct 2016

In an earlier post (“Belling the Cat,” 15 July 2016), we wondered what the Duterte Administration would do next, caught between an unsought for victory against China with respect to the country’s claims in the West Philippine Sea / South China Sea and the President’s desire to pursue bilateral ta...

2017 Budget: Bad News
VENEZUELA · Report · 18 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The 2017 budget was approved on 17 October by the Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) under unprecedented legal and institutional circumstances.

Week of October 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Oct 2016 · 1 response

On a trip to India and Japan, President Michel Temer will try to attract investors in infrastructure projects in Brazil. In the Lower House, we highlight the new attempt to change the repatriation bill. In the economy, the main events are the meeting of the Central Bank to set the benchmark inter...

Exports and Economic Activity
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Oct 2016

In our last Weekly Report, we warned that the latest economic activity indicators – especially for industry – suggest another contraction of GDP in the third quarter. This result is partly due to the weakening of exports, raising the suspicion that it is a consequence of the appreciation of the r...

Inflation will rise again
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Oct 2016 · 1 response

We revised down our inflation estimate for August and September to 11.8 percent and 9.4 percent in view of new data for food and personal care showing slower price increases and even some decreases in some market segments. The slowdown reflects stronger government imports of final goods and indus...

Weekly Tracker: October 16-22
TURKEY · Report · 16 Oct 2016

Turkey’s Executive Presidency saga resurfaced once again, as MHP leader Bahceli invited AKP to submit its constitutional proposal to parliament. AKP is expected to comply with the request, but it is still not certain whether the article will garner enough support -- of 330 votes -- for a referend...

Re-Elected
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 14 Oct 2016

The United Russia party won an unprecedented 343 out of 450 seats in the lower chamber of the Russian parliament. More than two hundred of those seats were secured according to the first-past-the-post system. Other parties represented in parliament saw their number of seats cut by 2-4 times. Unpr...

Inflation creeps higher to -0.4% y/y
ISRAEL · In Brief · 14 Oct 2016

Inflation in September increased to -0.4% y/y from -0.7% last month. This CPI print was in line with consensus, following a downward surprise last month. Inflation excluding energy moved lower to -0.3% y/y in September from -0.1% in August. Housing prices remains the main culprit impacting inflat...

Economics: Shallow Budget Cuts in Jeopardy
MEXICO · Report · 13 Oct 2016

The proposed spending budget for the Mexican federal government in 2017 reduces programmable spending by 228 billion pesos compared to the approved budget for 2016, which would bring this spending category to about the same level as what was authorized and spent in 2012, in constant peso terms, a...

Politics: Security Continues to Erode
MEXICO · Report · 13 Oct 2016

Insecurity and violence have returned to the center of public debate in Mexico, as recently the news and social media have focused on several high profile crimes. Even though such incidents have been a constant occurrence for years, none had become a central political issue except for the events...

SA Minister of Finance vs President Zuma: The Final Act Approaching
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 12 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The SA political economy stage has become noisier, busier and more confusing over the past 24 hours. Generally speaking, the country’s governance dynamics has become akin to a complex plot of modern day movie, with a mix of suspense, thrill, drama, law, and political skull-doggery, playing out in...

​ATTENTION: Turkey could be heading to a presidential referendum
TURKEY · In Brief · 12 Oct 2016

On Tuesday, the leader of the nationalist opposition party (MHP) Mr. Bahceli bashed President Erdogan for overstepping his authority, a case which became extremely acute after the aborted coup attempt. He invited him to step back, or instruct AKP to amend the constitution to transition Turkey to ...

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