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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Inflation: Temporary Relief
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Sep 2016

Slower inflation in August and September reflects weaker demand and a slight relief on the supply side. In our view, this moderate slowdown won’t last for long. Falling real income has led sellers to mitigate price increases in order to protect sales and cash flow. The government has helped sl...

New Faces from Within
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 Sep 2016

Head of the Presidential Administration and long-term Putin’s trusted friend Sergei Ivanov stepped down to be replaced by his former deputy Anton Vaino, who is younger and is not a Putin’s friend. That continues the overall trend of Putin gradually replacing his old trusted friends in key governm...

Current Account Deficit Eases in Q2 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 13 Sep 2016

Just as the market expected, the deficit on the current account narrowed in the second quarter of 2016. Expressed as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit on the current account eased to 3.1% in Q2 2016, from an upwardly adjusted 5.3% (previously 5%) in Q1 2016.

Exports stabilizing at a low level but trade deficit up on import growth
ISRAEL · In Brief · 13 Sep 2016

In June-August, industrial exports increased 3.6% SAAR (trend data) following a contraction of 8.5% the previous three months. Imports of raw materials increased 5.3% following an increase of 5.6% the previous there months. Imports of consumer goods are down 10.9% (due to a sharp decline in new v...

New Projections: No Great Changes
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 12 Sep 2016

We assume the government will have reasonable success in winning approval of the proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) to cap the nominal adjustment of public spending at the previous year’s inflation, and sends to Congress a proposal for social security reform that establishes minimum retireme...

Week of September 12
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Sep 2016

President Michel Temer announces an infrastructure concessions plan, his main bet to stimulate the economy. The disbarment of former Lower House President Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) is the main political event of the week in Congress. There will be protests against him in Brasília. In the Lava Jato ...

Exchange Rate, Risk and Monetary Policy Reaction
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 12 Sep 2016

Up to the early weeks of 2016 the quotations of Brazil’s CDS rose simultaneously with steep depreciation of the exchange rate. The exchange rate is an asset price, reacting strongly to expectations. For this reason, as the perceived chances of impeachment increased, the depreciation movement inve...

Fighting for an Ambitious Agenda
PERU · Report · 12 Sep 2016

President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski is enjoying a warm honeymoon, with popularity ratings of around 61%, and approving commentaries in both domestic and international media. But he’ll have to negotiate hard with Congress to advance his ambitious five-year agenda. Key aims include raising potential GD...

2017 budget deficit target appears overly optimistic
ISRAEL · In Brief · 12 Sep 2016

2017 revenue target rather challenging The big question lies in next year's budget which is fairly expansionary on the spending side, but aims at maintaining the 2.9% GDP deficit target. Much will depend on the level of economic activity, but without the "one time" factors witnessed this year the...

Week of September 11
TURKEY · Report · 11 Sep 2016

We are now worried about domestic politics not necessarily because there is a witch-hunt or AKP is turning more authoritarian, but because the government might be losing control of the Gulenist purge. The country is becoming more chaotic by the day, with AKP staring down the threat of losing its ...

Growth: Slowing and Still Very Low Quality
TURKEY · Report · 09 Sep 2016

TURKSTAT released the National Income Accounts data for the second quarter of 2016 today. GDP grew by 3.1%, y/y, and slightly lower (3%) in working day-adjusted terms, which was broadly in line with our (somewhat lower than consensus) forecast. The first quarter growth was revised down slightly t...

Fiscal deficit steady at 2.2% GDP
ISRAEL · In Brief · 08 Sep 2016

The fiscal deficit reached 2.6bn ILS in August and 5.2bn since the beginning of the year (compared to 3.4bn this time last year. The rolling 12 month deficit remained at a low level of 2.2% of GDP (similar to last month) . We note that the fiscal deficit is targeted for 2.9% this year, while the ...

Economics: Time to Get the Fiscal House in Order
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2016

For some years now, at least since 2013, we at GEA have established the need to periodically make an adjustment of public finance so as to “accommodate” the foreseeable pressures of public spending both on the level of social expenditures and what is needed to meet the country’s infrastructure ne...

Politics: What was the President thinking?
MEXICO · Report · 07 Sep 2016

Why did President Peña Nieto decide on such a huge and ultimately costly political gamble in hastily rolling out the diplomatic carpet for his high profile meeting with Donald Trump last week? The political blowback has been searing, with an initial opinion survey showing that over 80% of Mexican...

South Africa’s Economy Expands in 2Q 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 06 Sep 2016

According to the official gross domestic product (GDP) data released by Statistics South Africa today, the economy expanded by 3.3% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualized basis; the highest since the 4.1% recorded in the last quarter of 2014. Today’s higher than expected performan...

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