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Finishing the week with FAQs
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025

As the political upheaval continues, we try to address some of the queries we’ve been receiving from our audience in this report and take stock of where things stand right before the onset of the Id holiday. We shall, needless to say, continue to update our thoughts and scenarios on both polit...

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Panama granted yesterday a safe-conduct to former President Ricardo Martinelli, which had been requested months earlier by the Government of Nicaragua but had not been accepted by Panama
PANAMA · In Brief · 28 Mar 2025

Martinelli was initially an asylum seeker without safe-conduct. Yesterday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wisely granted him safe-conduct on "humanitarian" grounds. By handling the situation this way, the ministry strategically avoided inadvertently legitimizing Martinelli's claim of political a...

GULF WEEKLY: Bahrain budgets large deficit, Kuwait passes debt law, S&P turns negative on Sharjah, Oman GDP
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 28 Mar 2025

A skimmable summary overlaid with our analysis and links. Headlines: * Saudi unemployment fell to a record low of 7.0%, achieving the Vision 2030 goal five years early. * S&P placed Sharjah on a negative outlook and sees debt rising to 67% of GDP by 2028. * The UAE fined five banks and two i...

Webinar Replay - Mayhem in Turkey: Erdogan’s roadmap, the endgame and market implications
TURKEY · Report · 28 Mar 2025

In pursuit of eligibility for a third term, Erdogan has turned to coercion and foul play. What can be expected in the coming weeks? What will the impact be on macro policy and the market? How will this power play end? Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar featuring GlobalS...

New surveys on the Lula government to be released in the coming days, and Congress takes on tax and governance bills amid amnesty debates
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Mar 2025

Today, a new Atlasintel poll on the public approval of President Lula's government is expected to be released. The Speaker of the House, Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), may announce the rapporteur for the bill on income tax reform (PL 1087/25). In the House, the opposition is expected to continue p...

Mar CCA highlights: Armenia issues Eurobonds, Azerbaijan's SOFAZ to increase gold holdings to 170 tons, US$6bn FDI to Georgia from UAE to start next year, Uzbekistan implements a surprise rate hike
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2025

In this report, I briefly touch on the key macro-political events in the CCA during Mar: Armenia: CPI accelerates to 2.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Central Bank keeps key policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Monthly economic indicator drops to only 1.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Withdrawal from EEU ...

Industrial growth to moderate this year
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2025

Rosstat reported that in 2M22, the industrial output grew by a mere 1.2% y-o-y, which looked weaker than January’s 2.2% y-o-y growth. In February alone, the y-o-y growth remained almost non-existent (up by 0.2%). The unimpressive February growth figure largely stems from the base effect, as 2024 ...

Russia: a brief market watch
RUSSIA ECONOMICS · In Brief · 27 Mar 2025

After the USD/RUB shortly moved close to the 80 mark, the ruble weakened slightly, and in the past ten days, the USD/RUB rate fluctuated within the 80-85 range. It won’t be surprising to see some more ruble weakening in the weeks ahead as the current level looks too strong from the fundamental po...

STF indicts Bolsonaro for alleged coup plot, Bolsonaro expected to ramp up political activity amid legal setbacks, and Lula's approval drops sharply as polls show he would lose in key 2026 matchups
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2025

As expected, the First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court accepted the indictment against former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven others accused of attempting a coup following the 2022 elections. Given the legal challenges he faces, Bolsonaro may be pressured to, even discreetly, begin building...

For whom the bell tolls?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The Copom Minutes from last week's meeting revealed a rather hawkish tone regarding inflation prospects, suggesting that—even in the absence of guidance for meetings beyond May—the monetary tightening cycle is unlikely to end in the next meeting. We maintain the view expressed in our commentar...

The consequences of the Federal Supreme Court’s First Chamber’s decision to make Bolsonaro a defendant
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The First Chamber of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) has accepted the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) complaint against former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and allies for allegedly attempting a coup d'état in 2022. From now on, they become defendants, which generates repercussions in the legal...

Updated excel sheet on CBRT reserve data
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2025 · 1 response

We have received some requests from our audience to have an updated version of the excel file that had been attached to our semi-technical note (from earlier this month). Updated excel sheet is here, the technical note that we hyperlinked to yesterday's brief is here (for your convenience), and t...

STF rejects defense motions and begins voting on Bolsonaro coup attempt case, Bolsonaro calls for April rally in São Paulo after Rio turnout falls short, and Federal Revenue estimates minimal impact of income tax reform on states and municipalities
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2025

The First Panel of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) is continuing the trial on the complaint filed by the Prosecutor General's Office (PGR) against former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and seven others accused of attempting a coup d’état following the 2022 elections. Yesterday, former President Ja...

An Indian view on "Liberation Day"
INDIA · Report · 26 Mar 2025

"Liberation Day", April 2, the day when US President Trump is set to unveil his Tariff Plan, is drawing nearer, and not much is known about what will happen. The scenario for India is likely to involve some tariff cuts, some degradation of market access into the US, and some harm to India’s WTO ...

The ceasefire illusion: fake it 'til you make it
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Mar 2025

The new U.S. administration is clearly aiming to disengage from Ukraine, and to restore ties with Russia. U.S. President Donald Trump attempted to shift the blame for a potentially failed peace deal to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as the public witnessed during the February 28th Oval ...

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