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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political Insights: Week of September 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2014

This is the final week of campaigning before the first round of the elections, scheduled for next Sunday, October 5.TV Globo will host a debate with gubernatorial and presidential candidates on September 30 and October 2, respectively.Six presidential voting intention polls are registered with th...

In The Search For Money
ECUADOR · Report · 29 Sep 2014

Executive SummaryThe fiscal deficit for 2014 will reach $7272 million or 7% of GDP –the highest since year 2000. The government has secured 74% of financing as of September and needs to raise $3 billion more before year end to cover total financing needs that are at $11.3 billion.In this context ...

Reversal of Unemployment and Caution in the Credit Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2014

For an extended period the unemployment rate measured by the Monthly Employment Survey (PME, covering six metropolitan regions) was only moving in one direction – downward. However, the most recent data indicate a reversal. The participation rate appears to have stopped falling, contributing to a...

Another Wait and See
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Sep 2014

Last Friday, during the hearing between Citi Bank and Holdouts regarding whether debt instruments issued under Argentine law are within reach of Griesa’s “pari pasu" interpretation, the judge decided to postpone the definitive resolution and implement a temporary stay to allow holdouts to present...

Ukraine’s public debt breaks 60% of GDP ceiling
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Sep 2014

In August public debt grew 12.9% m/m up to UAH 945.8 billion ($69.5 billion) which is near 63% of GDP (our estimate of GDP). Refunding of Naftogaz (UAH 46.7 billion) as well as new wave of hryvnia weakening were the key reasons for fast state debt growth through the month. Though this result was ...

Datafolha: Dilma Doubles Her Lead
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2014

The new Datafolha presidential poll shows that Dilma Rousseff increased her lead over Marina Silva (PSB) in the 1st round.In the 2nd round, Dilma has a four point advantage over the PSB candidate.The poll also showed that the distance from Marina Silva to Aécio Neves (PSDB) is decreasing.However,...

Weekly Tracker: Sep 28-Oct 4
TURKEY · Report · 28 Sep 2014

Executive Summary In an unexpected and breathtaking change of heart, President Erdogan converted from reluctant coalition partner in the war against ISIS to eager counter-jihadist. Just how thorough his conversion is, will be seen this week when the AKP government submits two motions (bills) to p...

Foreign Exchange Agreement 30
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 26 Sep 2014 · 1 response

Foreign Exchange Agreement (CC) 30 seeks to increase the bolivar amount that Fonden receives from Pdvsa for the windfall tax stipulated in Decree 8807 (20 February 2013). The contribution is set in dollars and up to 50 percent can be converted in bolivars. Until now, the conversion was done by th...

Toward the Handover
INDONESIA · Report · 26 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Having been confirmed by the Constitutional Court, President-elect Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and his running mate moved relatively quickly to prepare for the political transition. The Transition Team, headed by former Minister of Trade, Rini Soewandi, has finalized the structure o...

A Bumpy Road until Elections
ARGENTINA · Report · 26 Sep 2014

The government is facing a complex economic moment. Privately measured activity indicators reflect that Argentina is once more suffering in its history of stagflation. Private consumption is affected by the decline in total wage income and uncertainty regarding key economic variables. Despite the...

Guatemala: Short Term Stability, Long Term Challenges
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 Sep 2014

In the short term, the outlook for Guatemala is stable. Growth is expected to be 3.5%-4% in 2014-2015, and inflation is projected to come in within the Bank of Guatemala’s 4.0% ± 1 p.p. target band. Exchange markets are not likely to be volatile, and fiscal and external imbalances will be fairly ...

Inflation Outlook in Limbo
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Sep 2014

The increase in the core inflation rate – from 5.3 to 5.8% between January and August 2014 – suggests that so-called “second round effects” of inflation, i.e. past inflation causing an inflationary spiral, are surfacing steadily. At the same time, the headline inflation rate has been in breach of...

MPC: No Surprises This Month
TURKEY · Report · 25 Sep 2014

This time, in line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged (see graph). This is not too surprising, because of a rather worrisome inflation outlook and the jittery external/currency environment. As for the content of the statement, the Bank’s take on inflation dynamics ...

Public Security: More Money, More Work
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2014

The spending budget proposal for 2015 falls short when it comes to matters of public security. Despite an ambitious plan to overhaul the justice system and the need to strengthen the role state and local security forces play in the fight against crime, the public security budget for next year rem...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2014

CNT and Ibope Polls Show a Close Race; Vox Populi Presents a Scenario Favoring Dilma The three voting intention polls released yesterday present a similar electoral scenario for the first round.In the second round, CNT and Ibope show a technical tie between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (P...

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