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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Law that recognizes citizenship to descendant of irregular migrants approved by Congress
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 22 May 2014

After months of heated national debate and stiff pressure from the international community, last week President Medina submitted to Congress a bill aimed at recognizing citizenship to descendent of migrants born in the country who were properly registered in the Civil Registry and hold birth cert...

two important milestones for the 4G infrastructure plan
COLOMBIA · In Brief · 22 May 2014

1. The State Council, one of Colombia's high courts, lifted the freeze it had imposed on the process to sell the National Government's stake in Isagén. The new timeline to complete this process will be released by the Ministry of Finance in a very short period of time. The resources resulting fro...

The Rise Of External Debt?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 22 May 2014

Executive Summary There have been cases in recent history in which a country experiencing “miracle” growth – driven by domestic investment that, in late stages, tends increasingly to misallocation – has reached domestic debt capacity constraints, only to replace domestic funding with external fun...

I Am An Excellent, Excellent Driver
TURKEY · Report · 22 May 2014

Contrary to our – and most analysts’ -- expectations, the Monetary Policy Committee cut the one-week repo rate by 50 bps today to 9.5%, while it kept the O/N lending and borrowing rates unchanged (see chart). This cut is significant because the one-week repo rate has regained its prevalence as th...

No Hike in the Benchmark Interest Rate…For Now
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2014

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has opted to leave the repo rate at 5.5% per year (see Graph 1). The Bank cited a challenging environment characterized by a weak domestic economy coupled with elevated price pressures as factors that informed its stance. Gra...

El Salvador: Falling to Earth
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 22 May 2014

Executive SummaryWith the June 1 Inauguration Day approaching, President-elect Salvador Sánchez is being forced to face financial realities. Though he’s built bridges with various sectors and laid the groundwork for a favorable domestic climate, recent data make clear that the budget lacks funds,...

Medina Most Popular of All
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 21 May 2014

Executive Summary Even two years before the 2016 presidential elections, prospective candidates for the two main political parties are beginning to place in the polls. As expected, former president Leonel Fernández is the most popular prospective PLD candidate so far, according to the most recent...

Political Reform At Last
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2014

Executive Summary Last week Congress approved an overhaul of the country’s electoral laws to bring them in keeping with the relevant constitutional amendments passed last year, thereby eliminating the possibility that the 2015 midterm elections might be held in some kind of legal limbo. In the pr...

Breaking Down the NIP
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2014

Executive Summary This week we continue our analysis of the National Infrastructure Plan (NIP) for 2014-2018. In aggregate terms, investment is projected to average 8% of annual GDP and 37% of total investment (gross fixed capital formation). Those numbers imply that the ratio of total investment...

Yuan Won’t Be Down for Long
CHINA · Report · 19 May 2014

Executive Summary China’s main economic indicators in April either held to their lows or declined further. Industrial output rose 8.7% y/y, turning in the same anemic performance as in Q1. Fixed asset investment rose16.8% y/y in real terms, down 0.8 pps. We expect general slowdown to persist i...

South Africa’s Evolving Democracy: Beyond Elections May 2014
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 May 2014

SA national elections on May 7th 2014 marked the 20th anniversary of the country’s constitutional democracy. While the ANC maintained its control over the national government with a 62% majority, it had much to worry about when examining the details of voting patterns across the 9 provinces and t...

Economic Activity: Recent Signs and Trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 May 2014

There are clear signs that the economy remains weak. The numbers announced last week – the IBC-Br, which is a preview of GDP calculated by the Central Bank, and real retail sales, estimated by the IBGE – confirm this perception. In March the IBC-Br dipped by 0.1%, leading to first-quarter growth ...

Political Insights: Week of July 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 May 2014

A new Ibope presidential poll will be released this week.Mayors meet with Finance Minister Guido Mantega to request an increase in federal resources.In the House, the bill that corrects the income tax for individuals may be voted upon.The Petrobras CPIs continue on the agenda in the Senate and Co...

Weekly Tracker: May 18-24
TURKEY · Report · 18 May 2014

Executive Summary There is yet not enough evidence in the Soma mine disaster that either the owner of Soma Holding or AKP’s preferential treatment of the mine was directly responsible. Yet, AKP’s defensive manner and the very poor PR management of the disaster turned the public wrath against the ...

Election 2014: An Unexpected Majority
INDIA · Report · 16 May 2014

The election results, which give the BJP a clear majority, are the first time since 1984 that one party has had a majority. This opens up all sorts of exciting possibilities. An Unexpected Majority In 1984, the Congress won 414 seats compared with the 272 required for a majority. After that, no s...

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