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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Weekly Tracker: June 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jun 2014

Executive Summary AKP’s bold attempt to reinvigorate the Peace Process with Kurds replaced the Presidential Elections as the top item on the Turkish agenda. While the effort is commendable and potentially lucrative in terms of Kurdish votes, it is open to sabotage by PKK and to mishandling. Feari...

Banxico reacts unexpectedly to a weak economy
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 Jun 2014

Banco de México surprised its domestic and foreign constituencies by reducing interest rates 50 basis points. For some time now, the central bank’s board has considered that inflation is under control as well as inflationary expectations, that have been reduced from an annual 4.1% at the start of...

Has Regionalization Failed?
PERU · Report · 06 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The discovery of massive corruption in several regional administrations may offer an opportunity to change a system that challenges the very notion of a unified state. Regional presidents have, illegally and erroneously, challenged national authority, trying to treat Peru as a f...

Reshaping the Agenda
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2014

An agreement to establish the Eurasian Economic Union bringing Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan was signed with no obvious substantial progress achieved. Most new parts of the agreement either deal exclusively with institutional matters or address issues that are years ahead in the future making th...

Will Ecuador return to Wall Street?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014

The operation between the Central Bank and Goldman Sachs involving gold reserves raised a wave of speculative comments. Here is a summary of the operations according to information provided by the BCE general management. The BCE will deposit 465,619 troy ounces of gold in a foreign account manage...

GDP growth for Q1 2014 makes many raise their eyebrows
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014 · 3 responses

The Central Bank released figures of GDP growth for Q1 2014. Once again it was a surprise as they registered an expansion of 5.5% in economic activity. It is true that compared to Q1 2013, the worst quarter for economic growth in year, any recovery would be reflected in relatively strong numbers....

AKP, Ocalan take the Peace Process up a notch
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014

First allow me to express my apologies for delaying this update, promised in our latest Monthly Report. Events in Turkey progressed so rapidly that I felt like a rabbit facing the headlights of an approaching car all week. The resignation of the president of Turkey’s sole big-business lobby, TUSI...

Inflation up, truck ban lifted?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014

May inflation rate reached 4.5%, above the 4.2% market expection and on the higher range of the BSP's 3.9-4.7% forecast. The BSP attributed the higher price increase to "tight domestic supply conditions" including "higher spoilage during the summer months" that led to higher food prices. A few an...

Glimmers of Recovery, Amid Depressing Forecasts
MEXICO · Report · 04 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Economic activity seems to be reviving. In April, external demand continued to firm: exports of non-petroleum exports were up 6.7% y/y, led by an 11.7% expansion of automotive shipments. Auto sector output set a new Q1 record of 1.2 million vehicles, 848,000 of those destined fo...

Inflation Has Peaked, How Nice!
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2014

Monthly CPI inflation was 0.4% in May, broadly in line with the consensus (0.5%), with the 12-month rate hence rising further to 9.7%, from 9.4% in April. As the CBRT and markets have long been anticipating on the back of last May’s low base effect, this print probably marks the peak of the 12-mo...

Good News on Debt, Despite Bad Activity Data
ARGENTINA · Report · 03 Jun 2014

Last Thursday, the Argentine government announced that after long and complex negotiations it finally reached a first firm agreement with the Paris Club regarding its outstanding debt, which had been in default since 2002. The normalization of its default position with the Paris Club is a positiv...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2014

Carta Capital magazine interviews Lula Former President Lula gave a long interview to Carta Capital magazine. Some points from the interview are worth highlighting. When asked about the relationship between the World Cup and the elections, the former president said he did not believe the event wo...

“It never rains but it pours”
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 02 Jun 2014

Recent prints of South African economic indicators paint a picture of an ailing domestic economy badly in need of emergency procedures before it is too late. On the whole, downbeat economic activity (particularly in mining and manufacturing) coupled with elevated inflationary pressures have so fa...

Frustration Over GDP Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Jun 2014

Nobody had the illusion that GDP growth in the first quarter would bring cheer to the government, but the result was even more frustrating than many imagined: growth was only 0.2% (0.7% annualized), worse than the 0.4% in the last quarter of 2013 (Graph 1). Of even more concern than the extremely...

Political Insights: Week of June 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Jun 2014

The House agenda contains several controversial topics, including the suspension of the act by the National Agency of Electric Energy (Aneel) denying compensation of R$ 7 billion to residential electricity consumers, the end of social security contributions from inactive civil servants, and the r...

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