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Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2014

CNI/Ibope: Dilma leads; candidate rejection increases Government Evaluation On Thursday, June 19, a CNI/Ibope poll on the presidential succession and evaluation of the Dilma Rousseff administration, conducted June 13-15, was released.Compared to the June 4-7 poll (the Ibope poll contracted by the...

Down with the Monarchy
COLOMBIA · Report · 20 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryThough he will remain a powerful force in forthcoming regional elections, and carry the banner of the opposition in an eventual referendum on a peace agreement, for Alvaro Uribe Santos’ reelection signals the beginning of the end of a political era. A second important message fro...

The Current Account Deficit Narrows In 2014 Q1
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Jun 2014

According to official figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the current account balance registered a deficit of R161 billion in 2014 Q1 compared to a shortfall of R179 billion in the previous quarter. As shown in Graph 1, the decrease in South Africa’s current account d...

President Zuma’s State of Nation Address
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Jun 2014

As expected, President Zuma delivered the first State of Nation Address of his second term in office with sharp focus on the economy, carefully navigating all the tough and thorny issues. President Zuma pronounced that the “second phase of the revolution” has begun. In the African National Congre...

Meet the “Manchurian Candidate”: Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Jun 2014

Quite unexpectedly, Monday’s CHP-MHP summit produced a joint candidate, called the “common roof” candidate in Turkish vernacular. Mr. Ekmeleddin İhsanoglu, the former Secretary General of Organization of Islamic Cooperation will probably represent the main stream opposition in the 10-24 August pr...

Swapping out of US jurisdiction
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Jun 2014

During today’s press conference, Economic Minister Kicillof, reinforced the comments made last night by president Cristina Fernádez de Kirchner, in the sense that Argentina cannot honor the debt obligations that emerge from the Griesa’s rulings (because of the consequences it has on the remaining...

What’s At Stake in the 2015 Elections
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2014

Executive Summary By August all political parties will begin to tailor their every pronouncement, legislative vote and discourse with an eye toward what is most likely to attract support and minimize the risk of alienating voters ahead of the 2015 elections. There will be a lot at stake next June...

Official Economic Recovery Strategy
MEXICO · Report · 17 Jun 2014

Executive Summary In recent weeks a number of indicators have pointed to a slower economic recovery than anticipated at the start of the year. That underperformance suggests that the government’s efforts to kick-start the economy through increased public spending has yet to produce the desired re...

Policy Rate Hike?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jun 2014

These days, reports of price increases from rice, sugar and garlic to oil and transport fares have become daily fare in the local newspapers. Receiving the most attention is the nation’s staple food and CPI heavyweight, rice, which has been the target of government’s anti-smuggling efforts and wh...

​A Presidential stance against Moral Hazard
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Jun 2014

As might have been expected, at least from a Game Theory point of view, tonight’s presidential speech was not very precise regarding the future steps the government is going to take, after earlier today’s confirmation that the US Supreme Court was not going to take Argentina’s appeal. In her spee...

US Supreme Court rejects Argentine Case
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Jun 2014

Without further consultations, the US Supreme Court announced today that it will not consider Argentina’s appeal against the rulings of judge Griesa in favor of Holdouts. Even though Argentina is expected to request a rehearing of the case, the chances that the Supreme Court changes its mind are ...

Losing Hope about Growth
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jun 2014

Since taking office, the current government has been consistently promising a return to vigorous growth, but these promises have never been realized. At the start of the Rousseff administration, the promise was for growth of at least 4%, and this was the consensus projection of the market as refl...

Aggravation of Imbalances or Pursuit of Reforms?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 16 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The scenario for the rest of 2014 has little room for uncertainties, but the picture is more complicated for 2015. In preparing the projections of this Quarterly Outlook we have assumed that President Rousseff will be reelected and will continue the current economic policy re...

Political Insights: Week of June 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2014

A quiet week in Congress:On Tuesday, because of the national team’s game against Mexico, federal civil servants will be released from work at 12:30pm.Thursday is a national holiday (Corpus Christi).A new presidential poll by CNI/Ibope may be released on Friday. Dilma’s decree on popular participa...

Weekly Tracker: June 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The sudden emergence of the ISIS as a major and probably permanent regional actor creates too many non-linearities in politics, economy and markets to be untangled at once.We initiate our analysis with a cautiously pessimistic short-term scenario. ISIS will keep Mosul, but the c...

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