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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Normalisation of Monetary Policy Continuing
INDIA · In Brief · 07 Oct 2013

RBI had embarked on a messy interest rate defence of the rupee where the 91-day rate moved up by as much as 400 bps. After Raghuram Rajan took charge as Governor, some small steps were taken in normalisation.Today, the next step in normalisation took place. RBI cut the marginal standing facility ...

Sweeten the Pot
MEXICO · Report · 07 Oct 2013

Executive Summary Last week GEA-ISA published the results of its most recent quarterly survey of voter opinion, which on this occasion focused on issues related to proposed fiscal and energy reforms. The public finds little it agrees with in the structural reform proposals offered to date, with c...

Political Insights: Week of October 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Oct 2013

In the economy, two highlights: the Central Bank announces its decision on the interest rate, and the IBGE releases inflation figures for September. In the Senate, we highlight the resumed discussions on the unification of ICMS and state debt, as well as the possible vote, in the Constitution and...

Improved Trade Balance in September: Effect of the Real Exchange Rate Still Small
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Oct 2013

Brazil’s trade balance in September was in surplus by US$ 2.1 billion, indicating recovery. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the annualized surplus of US$ 16.4 billion is the largest since the end of last year (Graph 1). However, this result cannot be attributed to the weaker real exchange rate. G...

Weekly Tracker: October 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Oct 2013

Executive Summary On the international front, there is only a remote hope of progress in the Iran vs. P5+1 negotiations, or in Syria, while Iraq is in tenterhooks. As regional conflicts spread out, contagion to Turkey through terror and ethnic strife may become more apparent. Kurds rejected the R...

Stability Reaffirmed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but with a small voter turnout, and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may cause his position in the elite hierarchy to become less prominent. His main opponent, Alexey Navalny, won more than a quarter of the vote, despi...

Tymoshenko Agreed to go to Germany for Treatment
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Oct 2013

Finally we have a piece of positive news about Ukraine, the jailed former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko agreed to go to Germany for treatment thus opening the way for signing EU Association agreement in November.Recall, over the last few months the main uncertainty about potential EU Associatio...

Yasuni is Worth $18b in Present Value but What is the Net Present Value?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 04 Oct 2013

As all expected, the National Assembly declared of "national interest" the exploitation of the Yasuni oil reserves.  With 108 votes against 25, legislators included blocks 43 and 31 in the document.  However, the approval excludes activities in the "intangible zone" --the area where the Tagaeri-T...

Stability Reaffirmed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 04 Oct 2013

Sergei Sobyanin won the Moscow Mayor’s election but ensured a small voter turnout and voter support for himself only marginally higher than 50%. That may make his position in the elite hierarchy become less prominent. His main opponent Alexey Navalny won over a quarter of all votes despite having...

Surprise Positive Outlook on an Expected Investment Grade Rating
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 03 Oct 2013

Moody’s raised today the Philippine government credit from Ba1 to an investment grade of Baa3, an action that would have been dismissed as long-delayed were it not for the positive outlook that came with it.  The positive outlook “reflects the expectation of continued economic outperformance by t...

Bad Print, Lira Pass-Through Continues
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2013

At 0.8%, CPI-inflation came in at somewhat higher than consensus, but broadly in line with our forecast. The 12-month rate nevertheless edged down to 7.9%, from 8.2% in August, thanks to last year’s elevated base. Notably, at 0.7%, core inflation -- measured by the I-index that excludes food, tob...

Serra’s Permanence in PSDB is Positive for Dilma and Poses Challenges for Aécio
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Oct 2013

Former Governor José Serra (PSDB-SP) has decided to remain in the PSDB.There was a possibility of Serra's going to the PPS.The national president of the PPS, Rep. Roberto Freire (SP), had offered the party to the former governor to run for president again in 2014. Freire claims that “He (Serra) c...

Industrial Production Stagnant and Without Good Perspectives
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Oct 2013

Industrial production in August was stable, causing a decline of 1.2% in the 12-month variation (Graph 1). With this, the carry-over to the third quarter reached -1.7%, meaning that for output to remain stable in the quarter, growth in September will have to be 5.1%, which is highly unlikely. In ...

Heads-Up: ISIS Threatens Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2013

The Islamic State of Iraq and Levant or Syria (ISIS) issued a web-based threat to Ankara to re-open two border crossings, Bab-el Hava and Bab-ul Salam, by 8 October or face nationwide suicide bomb attacks.  The threat was issued on a website believed to have in the past communicated such messages...

Uncertain Times
ARGENTINA · Report · 02 Oct 2013

This report reviews some factors that are generating political and economic uncertainty for the immediate future. They are the upcoming midterm elections, the legal battle with the holdouts, the dubious 2014 Budget, and the government’s interventionist stance. Although none seems important enough...

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