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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Triple Economic Whammy
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 25 Apr 2014

The South African economy is struggling under the load of high price increases, raised costs of acquiring credit as well as low spending and a lack of confidence. Compared to twelve months earlier, indicators of inflation for March 2014 reveal that price pressures have escalated (see Graphs 1 and...

Shake, Shake, Shake, Señora…
CHILE · Report · 25 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Natural disasters have fallen upon Chileans in the past month: two consecutive earthquakes and a devastating fire. In spite of the undeniable human drama, the immediate negative economic effects are small, while the reconstruction efforts can become moderately simulative. ...

Financial Reform Seen as Growth Source
CHINA · Report · 24 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Prime Minister Keqiang Li has announced a series of small-scale stimuli to address the economic slowdown, such as cutting the enterprise tax, and stimulating private lending. The new direction is in sharp contrast to the 4 trillion yuan stimulus undertaken at the end of 2008,...

MPC Leaves Rates Unchanged
TURKEY · Report · 24 Apr 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee did the right thing today -- and also the brave thing, given that political pressures on the Bank to undertake a sizeable rate cut have been intensifying -- by not moving any of the key interest rates, i.e. the O/N corridor (8%-12%) and the weekly repo (10%) rates (s...

Girding for the Presidential Race
INDONESIA · Report · 24 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The parliamentary elections came off peacefully, without significant conflict, or any casualties. This is very important, because in many countries elections are synonymous with uncertainty. The smooth proceedings were praised as a signal of maturing democracy. The many Qu...

Costa Rica: Challenging Times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Apr 2014

Executive SummaryCosta Rican President-elect Luis Guillermo Solis will face challenges after taking office May 8th. Just two days after his landslide victory, Intel Corp. announced it would close its manufacturing facilities in Costa Rica. The closing will be completed by yearend, and involve the...

Facing Political Challenges
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 22 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Though his approval ratings are high, and the opposition is divided, President Danilo Medina faces two critical political challenges. The first is the passage of a naturalization bill that would address the status of the descendents of undocumented immigrants. The bill, which th...

Political Insights: Week of April 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Apr 2014

The Monday (April 21) Tiradentes holiday will slow down legislative activity.The Senate may vote on the Internet Framework Law.In the House, the Ethics Council may vote on the preliminary report in favor of the removal of Rep. André Vargas (PT-SP).On Wednesday, President Dilma Rousseff participat...

Weekly Tracker: April 20-26
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Incumbent president Gul may have announced his retirement from active politics, but he may still have a role to play in AKP’s future. Erdogan intends to run for the Presidency and govern the country on a Presidential System if he wins.Upcoming changes to be introduced to the ele...

Vox Populi poll on brazil presidential election
BRAZIL POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Apr 2014

The Vox Populi Institute released a new voting intentions poll for the presidential race, conducted on April 6-8. The poll reveals a stable scenario, compared to February. According to the results, president Dilma Rousseff (PT), with 40% of intended votes, would win in the first round. Senator Aé...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2014

Vox Populi shows a stable scenario On April 16, the Vox Populi Institute released a new voting intention poll, conducted April 6-8, for the presidential race.The poll reveals a stable scenario compared to February (see Table 1 below). According to the results, President Dilma Rousseff (PT), with ...

Devaluation, Step by Step
VENEZUELA · Report · 17 Apr 2014

Executive Summary Fourteen months of slow reforms have shaped the forex regime that will, in our view, be in place until after the 2015 legislative elections. The system is based on three official exchange rates: the 6.30 bolivars per dollar Cadivi/Cencoex rate, Sicad and Sicad II. The government...

Is Erdem Basci on his way out?
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2014

I’m extremely reluctant to comment on rumors in the Turkish media, but the frequency of articles suggesting that a major anti-Gulen operation in Capital Markets Board (CMB, Turkey’s SEC), BRSA and CBT has begun and may cause governor Basci his post are too grave to ignore. Besides, Reuters added ...

Presidential Approval Plumbs New Lows
MEXICO · Report · 15 Apr 2014

Executive Summary The most notable result of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey of voter opinion regarding governability is the extent to which President Enrique Peña’s approval ratings have fallen. Support of the administration has steadily weakened since mid-2013, but the poll from this past M...

Ukraine to issue $1 billion under US state guarantees
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Apr 2014

Yesterday the U.S. and Ukrainian governments signed a loan guarantee agreement for $ 1 billion. Today Ukrainian Minfin announced its intention to issue $1 billion Eurobonds. In fact, it is a very positive signal for the country given all tough conditions Ukraine is facing for the moment. Still we...

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