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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monitoring the economic activity trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Aug 2018

Since the end of the truckers’ strike, the signals emitted by the high-frequency economic activity indicators have been buried in a veritable avalanche of noise, hampering identification of the economic recovery trend. Our evaluation, based on the most recent information, is that recovery continu...

Politics: Political control trumps security
MEXICO · Report · 06 Aug 2018

Society’s growing alienation from all manner of governmental and political institutions is a major factor at the heart of the broader political crisis that paved the way for López Obrador’s overwhelming electoral victory July 1, a crisis greatly deepened by the past few years of corruption scanda...

Credit upgrade likely to be positive for markets/shekel this week
ISRAEL · Report · 06 Aug 2018

Israel's credit upgrade to AA- (S&P) will support some modest shekel appreciation and lower bond yields in the short run, but this is likely to be temporary. We see some slack in the labor market, with the number of unemployed moving higher and job vacancies lower. The bigger driver of inflation ...

Growth in spite of trade war
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Aug 2018

GDP was up 6.8% y/y in H1, the same rate as in H2 2017. Industrial output was up 6.7% y/y, up 0.4 pps, while investment was up 6% -- down 2.6 pps, and up only 0.3% y/y in real terms, down 3.5 pps from H1 2017. The major drop in state investment is likely the main cause for the slowdown. Possibly ...

​Do or die weeks for Ankara
TURKEY · In Brief · 06 Aug 2018

Opposing reports suggest that either a compromise has been reached to resolve the “cleric crisis” between Turkey and US, or new sanctions are underway. Either way, I think these are “do or die “ weeks for Ankara, which is not only in trouble with US, but also struggling to put together a fiscal p...

Outlook 2018-2019: No volte-face
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 03 Aug 2018 · 1 response

Living conditions in Venezuela have been crushed by hyperinflation and the collapse of basic public services. In our updated 2018–2019 outlook, things are projected to worsen. GDP falls by a third over two years. Inflation exceeds 2 million percent. Real wages and interest rates plunge. Oil p...

China’s confused policymaking: return to relaxed monetary policy as leadership conflicts highlight the slowing economy and the trade war
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 03 Aug 2018

China’s leadership is showing signs of strain – not just in its reaction to Washington, but in its overall economic policymaking. A series of outspoken statements has displayed a highly unusual amount of public disagreement in Beijing. This suggests both deepening conflict over economic policy, a...

Ana Amélia strengthens Alckmin’s campaign
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Aug 2018

​Senator Ana Amélia (PP-RS) has agreed to be the VP on Geraldo Alckmin’s (PSDB) presidential ticket. This is extremely positive news for the PSDB candidate. Ana Amélia, aside from strengthening the campaign of the former governor of São Paulo in the South region, where Álvaro Dias (PODE) has show...

Food inflation slows, helping headline
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Aug 2018

Consumer prices rose by a lower than expected 0.55% in July, compared with consensus expectation of 0.9%-1% (July 2017: 0.15%), which kept the 12-month rate a bit under 16% -- for now (15.85%). Producer price inflation continued to edge up, so did core (C-index) and service inflation, however, wh...

The Silver Linings Playbook
TURKEY · Forecast · 02 Aug 2018

Turkey has marched to the end of a cul-de-sac, faced with a ‘no-choice’ between a painful belt-tightening program and restoration of relations with the West, or risking further economic deterioration and political instability. With global economy growing at a relatively healthy pace, monetary nor...

New BMW assembly plant to be beneficial for growth, less so for inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

BMW has just announced its intention to build a new assembly plant in Eastern Hungary. The location of this plant will be Debrecen, the country's second largest settlement (203 thousand inhabitants), the expected capacity is 150 thousand cars per year, and the unit would employ over 1000 people w...

Taking his case to the public
PERU · Report · 01 Aug 2018

Massive judicial corruption unveiled via a barrage of audio tapes leaked to the press has given President Martín Vizcarra an opportunity to press for political reforms. The president has proposed an overhaul of the judicial system, a ban on reelection of members of Congress, and reinstatement of ...

Alckmin gains momentum in an open race
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Aug 2018

Three polls on the presidential race released this week (DataPoder360, Paraná Institute and XP/IPESPE – the latter conducted only in São Paulo) show that the race is still wide open. Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) leads all three polls. While he is stagnant at around 20% of intended votes, Bolsonaro ha...

A clear road ahead
CHILE · Report · 01 Aug 2018

In July, the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC) once again surprised markets on the upside. Expectations for GDP growth continue to improve – this, despite that in May, the 12-month variation of retail sales fell sharply, coming in below the expectations of even the most pessimistic anal...

Financial needs forecast update
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 01 Aug 2018

In our report of July 23, with our third quarter forecasts, we have introduced some changes in Table 8, regarding the financial accounts. We raised our forecast of the financing needs from the market to USD 28.6 billion. This compares to the USD 25.9 billion in the second quarter forecast. The in...

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