CENTRAL AMERICA
Analysts
Fernando Naranjo
Former Finance Minister
Felix Delgado
Former General Manager, Central BankDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Hopes deferred
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Sep 2024
El Salvador’s short-term economic outlook looks less hopeful we projected in our April 2024 report, after analyzing H1 trends. Deviation from key assumptions we made in the April forecasting exercise has turned perspectives less favorable. The eventual better performance that we expected either c...
High hopes for Guatemala, as neighbors struggle
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Aug 2024
In Guatemala, private sector confidence has improved since President Bernardo Arevalo took office in January, and expectations within the country are high. In Bank of Guatemala surveys, most respondents said they expected the economic situation to improve in the next six months. Arevalo is workin...
Challenging times
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jul 2024 · 1 response
Costa Rica experienced a deceleration in several key macroeconomic indicators during H1 2024. According to latest official data, economic activity growth slowed due to a combination of external and internal factors. Externally the economic situation was stable, with low growth rates of most tradi...
High hopes and mixed signals
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Jun 2024
Costa Rica’s political conditions have stayed the same for the past two years, with strained relationships between President Rodrigo Chaves and members of the congressional opposition now adding to Chaves’ renewed criticism of the Comptroller General. Recall that during these past two years the p...
Drop off in growth – and remittances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 May 2024
In Costa Rica, GDP growth slowdown will continue in the next 18 months. According to the Central Bank’s estimates in its April 30th Monetary Policy Report, GDP growth for 2024 and 2025 will be lower. The latest estimates showed that the economy had a mediocre start during Q1. The latest Monetary ...
Good spots and prospects
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Apr 2024
El Salvador grew faster than expected in 2023 and, under optimistic and somewhat daring assumptions about economic policy decision-making this year, it could maintain those positive economic results during the outlook period. During this second administration of President Nayib Bukele, we expect ...
Webinar Replay - Central America Outlook: Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 05 Apr 2024
Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the economic outlook for Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala. What will fiscal consolidation mean for Costa Rica after its IMF program ends? Will El Salvador agree to a new IMF financing program? Will Guatemala find stability after ...
Growth mixed, but tied to U.S. trends.
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Apr 2024
Guatemala´s economy returned to its long-term potential growth rate in 2023. Despite the political tensions over presidential transition, there were no major disruptions in internal production and income. Real GDP growth reached 3.5% y/y, down from 4.1% a year before. Economic expansion can be ex...
Prospects looking up
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Feb 2024
Understanding Costa Rica’s unexpectedly good 2023 economic performance requires evaluating the main exogenous elements that departed from our basic assumptions for the country’s short-term economic outlook. This is important, primarily to rehearse a suitable forecast scenario. Those elements rela...