ECUADOR
Analyst
Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Pulled from the edge of the cliff
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Apr 2025
The victory on April 13, 2025 of President Daniel Noboa over Luisa Gonzalez by approximately 11 points was unexpected by everyone—including the two candidates. At least 54% of Ecuadorians understood the danger of handing the country over to organized crime. The Electoral Council has yet to offici...
Noboa wins brilliantly
ECUADOR · In Brief · 13 Apr 2025
A press release from Bloomberg one hour ago cites the exit poll from La Posta giving Noboa 51% and Gonzalez 48% as a possible outcome for today’s second round election. La Posta is not a well-credited news site and it has over and over again made evident its links with Correa and his party. As of...
Webinar Replay - Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead
ECUADOR · Report · 04 Apr 2025
What is the impact of the debate on the election? How have vote intentions changed since the first electoral round? What are the challenges and opportunities for Daniel Noboa during this second round campaign? Is it possible to expect a moderate government from Luisa Gonzalez should she win? How ...
Pachakutik support for Gonzalez
ECUADOR · In Brief · 02 Apr 2025
As a follow up to my webinar of last Monday, I wanted to present our perspective on how Pachakutik could vote on April 13. By the end of Sunday, March 30th, Pachakutik decided to officially support Luisa Gonzalez. Leonidas Iza conditioned this support to the following points: no oil neither minin...
Slide Presentation - Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead
ECUADOR · Report · 31 Mar 2025
Get insight into the Ecuadorian presidential debate and its implications for Ecuador with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Ecuador Runoff: Shifting votes and the road ahead".
A tangled context for the second round
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Mar 2025
The controversy around the concession of Camp Sacha was not without grounds. The Canadian-Chinese consortium failed to come up with the $1.5 billion required to complete the agreement before the deadline of Tuesday, March 11, required by President Noboa. The next government will have to make a de...
Cautious optimism after the shock
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Feb 2025
The results of the first round of the presidential election came as a shock to many Ecuadorians—especially Noboa, his party, and supporters who, based on the polls, expected a win in this round. Not only was the close vote atypical of a first round (only 22,000 votes separated Noboa from Gonzalez...
Tough prospects for Daniel Noboa
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2025
By 9 pm, February 9th, with 56% of polls having been counted, President Daniel Noboa who started leading the presidential race with 6% over Luisa Gonzalez, is now down to less than 2% of difference. The sample should be pretty stable at this point thus, this difference might continue until tomorr...
Ecuadorians’ despair translates into uncertainty
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2025 · 1 response
President Daniel Noboa started his term last year with public support over 64%, which by the end of 2024 had fallen to 42%. While his support has taken a deep dive, it is not very different from the numbers President Correa had at the start and end of his terms, but within a much shorter time fra...