ECUADOR
Analyst
Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
From dark to darker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 15 Oct 2024
Our September report was entitled “A dark fourth quarter". That is precisely what we expect for the past quarter, with the problem of blackouts of up to 10 hours for every industrial and household sector and no near-term solution in sight, since rain—the main ally of a slow government—will not be...
A dark fourth quarter, continued
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2024
As a follow up and complement to our monthly report for September, we present here the latest update from the Central Bank to forecast GDP growth this year. The Central Bank has downgraded y/y growth from 1% to 0.9% in view of the unpublished yet results for H1. Although we concur with a lower y/...
A dark fourth quarter
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Sep 2024
One thing that can be said about Daniel Noboa is that he does not procrastinate. In the midst of a severe energy crisis caused by the bad situation of the electricity sector, he sent a bill proposing the re-installation of foreign military bases in Ecuador. The last US military base, located in M...
Political gender violence or attempt at a coup d'état?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2024
The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probabilit...
The dark political web
ECUADOR · Forecast · 16 Jul 2024
The constant confrontation between the executive and legislative powers sometimes distracts attention from other developments that might have important consequences for the political stability of the country and its future. New members of the Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control...
A thorny path towards the presidency
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2024
President Noboa still holds close to 50% of popular support. He has stated his intention to run for president in 2025, and his party has been officially qualified by the Electoral Council to do so. His chances of passing into the second round of the presidential elections of next May are high, bu...
A political victory amidst the darkness
ECUADOR · Report · 10 May 2024
The past referendum and public consultation gave President Daniel Noboa a victory on nine out of the 11 questions proposed. This was a setback for the Correistas, who were campaigning for a “no” vote on all the questions. The winning questions all concerned crime control measures, while the two r...
A gentle drizzle to calm the ongoing drought
ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024
The Republic closed an extended facility agreement with the IMF for the next 48 months for $4.0 billion. As of last March, we estimated needs of at least $3.5b to give some breathing space to the tight fiscal situation. This estimate was made before the new challenges Ecuador is facing due to the...
Expected victory amidst an energy crisis
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024
Ecudorians voted yesterday on the public referendum and consult for 11 questions, 9 of which are related to security and corruption issues, one to international arbitration for public contracts and one for labor hiring by the hour – these two questions are currently prohibited under the constitut...