Analyst

Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance Minister

Databanks

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Recent Country Insights

The dark political web
ECUADOR · Forecast · 16 Jul 2024

The constant confrontation between the executive and legislative powers sometimes distracts attention from other developments that might have important consequences for the political stability of the country and its future. New members of the Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control...

A thorny path towards the presidency
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2024

President Noboa still holds close to 50% of popular support. He has stated his intention to run for president in 2025, and his party has been officially qualified by the Electoral Council to do so. His chances of passing into the second round of the presidential elections of next May are high, bu...

A political victory amidst the darkness
ECUADOR · Report · 10 May 2024

The past referendum and public consultation gave President Daniel Noboa a victory on nine out of the 11 questions proposed. This was a setback for the Correistas, who were campaigning for a “no” vote on all the questions. The winning questions all concerned crime control measures, while the two r...

A gentle drizzle to calm the ongoing drought
ECUADOR · In Brief · 25 Apr 2024

The Republic closed an extended facility agreement with the IMF for the next 48 months for $4.0 billion. As of last March, we estimated needs of at least $3.5b to give some breathing space to the tight fiscal situation. This estimate was made before the new challenges Ecuador is facing due to the...

Expected victory amidst an energy crisis
ECUADOR · In Brief · 22 Apr 2024

Ecudorians voted yesterday on the public referendum and consult for 11 questions, 9 of which are related to security and corruption issues, one to international arbitration for public contracts and one for labor hiring by the hour – these two questions are currently prohibited under the constitut...

Diplomatic impasse with unpredictable consequences
ECUADOR · Forecast · 08 Apr 2024

As we write this report, the world press is reporting on the trespass of the Mexican Embassy ordered by President Noboa last Friday night to capture former Vice Jorge President Glas, a convicted felon who should not have been a subject of the political asylum granted him by the Mexican government...

100 Days to Celebrate
ECUADOR · Report · 15 Mar 2024

President Daniel Noboa can celebrate his first 100 days in office with an 80% acceptance of his mandate—the highest level of popularity enjoyed by an Ecuadorian president. He moved fast on the right track to partially contain the dangerous insecurity and violence situation of last January and to...

Fast track administration
ECUADOR · Report · 20 Feb 2024

President Noboa has sent four emergency bills to congress since November, when he took office. The first one, containing a mild tax reform that according to the government might help raise $700 million this year, was approved by the Assembly with few changes. The second, aimed at improving the si...

Active legislative week with positive results
ECUADOR · In Brief · 09 Feb 2024

After several weeks of discussions, agreements, and disagreements, there is finally a decision on the tax reform proposed by President Daniel Noboa to raise the VAT tax from 13% to 15%. His original proposal was not approved by the Assembly and after several debates, the plenary voted individuall...

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