ECUADOR
Analyst
Magdalena Barreiro
Former Finance MinisterDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Ecuadorians’ despair translates into uncertainty
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Jan 2025
President Daniel Noboa started his term last year with public support over 64%, which by the end of 2024 had fallen to 42%. While his support has taken a deep dive, it is not very different from the numbers President Correa had at the start and end of his terms, but within a much shorter time fra...
Hope due to the partial end of blackouts
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Dec 2024
President Noboa offered to end the electricity blackouts by December 20, to the joy of almost all Ecuadorians, who have endured harsh day-to-day circumstances since last September. However, the six major electricity-consuming corporations, including steel manufacturers, mining companies and Petro...
Free path to the presidency or two nails in a coffin?
ECUADOR · Report · 14 Nov 2024
The Ecuadorian political sky has been darkened by clouds of political abuse instead of clouds bringing desperately needed rain. Vice President Veronica Abad was “suspended” for 150 days by an administrative decision from the Minister of Labor, and the candidacy of Jan Topic, who was coming on ...
From dark to darker
ECUADOR · Forecast · 15 Oct 2024
Our September report was entitled “A dark fourth quarter". That is precisely what we expect for the past quarter, with the problem of blackouts of up to 10 hours for every industrial and household sector and no near-term solution in sight, since rain—the main ally of a slow government—will not be...
A dark fourth quarter, continued
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Sep 2024
As a follow up and complement to our monthly report for September, we present here the latest update from the Central Bank to forecast GDP growth this year. The Central Bank has downgraded y/y growth from 1% to 0.9% in view of the unpublished yet results for H1. Although we concur with a lower y/...
A dark fourth quarter
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Sep 2024
One thing that can be said about Daniel Noboa is that he does not procrastinate. In the midst of a severe energy crisis caused by the bad situation of the electricity sector, he sent a bill proposing the re-installation of foreign military bases in Ecuador. The last US military base, located in M...
Political gender violence or attempt at a coup d'état?
ECUADOR · Report · 19 Aug 2024
The political saga between President Daniel Noboa and Vice President Veronica Abad has escalated to mutual accusations of gender-based political violence on the side of Abad and attempts at a coup d’état raised by the official side. The truth of the matter is that Noboa, who has a high probabilit...
The dark political web
ECUADOR · Forecast · 16 Jul 2024
The constant confrontation between the executive and legislative powers sometimes distracts attention from other developments that might have important consequences for the political stability of the country and its future. New members of the Council of Citizen Participation and Social Control...
A thorny path towards the presidency
ECUADOR · Report · 17 Jun 2024
President Noboa still holds close to 50% of popular support. He has stated his intention to run for president in 2025, and his party has been officially qualified by the Electoral Council to do so. His chances of passing into the second round of the presidential elections of next May are high, bu...