PERU
Analyst
Alfredo Thorne
Former Minister of Economy and FinanceDatabanks
Recent Country Insights
Peru's President Jerí's new cabinet
PERU · In Brief · 15 Oct 2025
Last night, the new president, José Jerí, took oath to his new Cabinet, consisting of 18 new ministers. Ahead of the Oath Ceremony at the Presidential Palace, Jerí said that none of the previous ministers would be included and his was a “transition Cabinet and of national reconciliation.” Overall...
Peru’s Congress impeached President Boluarte
PERU · In Brief · 10 Oct 2025
Last night with 121 votes of the 130 legislators (8 did not attended), Peru’s Congress impeached President Boluarte. This followed a sharp increase in insecurity and the feeling that her government had not been attending the population's demands for greater internal security. Official extortion c...
Peru’s Congress to impeach Boluarte
PERU · In Brief · 09 Oct 2025 · 1 response
Tonight the majority of Congress’ members have decided to support a motion to impeach president Boluarte. Our estimate is that there are more than 100 votes supporting the bill, well in excess the 98 needed assuming that all 130 congress members attend the plenary. This may take place tomorrow. A...
Boluarte attempts to boost approval ratings; post-election risk falls, but near-term election risk will impact economy; local market rally weakens
PERU · Report · 23 Sep 2025 · 1 response
We cover three topics in this September forecast report. First, in politics, having adjusted our forecast in August, we now believe with 80% probability that President Dina Boluarte will complete her current term, scheduled to end in July 2026. We examine how Boluarte has attempted to boost her p...
Elections, Congress and the Peru-Colombia territorial conflict; we forecast 2.2% growth in H2 2025; BCRP stands pat in August, but expected to cut 25 bp in September
PERU · Report · 27 Aug 2025
In this report, we cover three topics: political risks in the run-up to the general elections; assessment of the state of the economy following the strong June 2025 GDP performance; and our expectation that the Board of the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú will cut its policy rate by 25 bp at it...
Is this President Boluarte’s last dance? Economy grew sluggishly in Q2; PEN/USD appreciation justifies one 25 bp rate cut in the next nine months
PERU · Report · 15 Jul 2025
In this report we offer an update on Peru’s political, economic and market developments. We first discuss politics and the likelihood of President Dina Boluarte’s facing a successful impeachment before her term ends on July 28th, 2026. Although we continue to ascribe a 45% probability to Boluarte...
Political focus shifts to elections; real GDP growth forecast trimmed; local bond prices expected to slide in H2
PERU · Forecast · 17 Jun 2025
In this forecast, we examine prospects for the July 2026 general elections, and how the economy is likely to respond. In the first section, we focus on the electoral calendar and the candidates, and try to predict the winner of the presidency. It is too early for our analysis to be anything other...
Will President Boluarte be impeached? Economy booms in Q1 2025, but will slow in H2; BCRP to stand pat in 2025; Congress set to approve another pension fund withdrawal
PERU · Report · 20 May 2025
Politics took center stage in Peru in May. This report analyzes the key issues. In the first section, we discuss the Cabinet crisis, and whether it constitutes a preamble for the impeachment of President Dina Boluarte, whose governance has become fragile. Next, we discuss the robust 4.7% real GDP...
Peru: Cabinet crisis
PERU · In Brief · 14 May 2025
Under pressure from Congress, last night President Dina Boluarte sacked two ministers, the highly respected Finance Minister, José Salardi, and the Interior Minister, Julio Diaz. Apparently, she was looking for support from political groups to avoid an impeachment of her loyal Prime Minister Gust...