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Georgian Dream sweeps local vote, as expected
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 05 Oct 2025

The local elections held yesterday, Oct 4th, did not offer any surprises as the ruling Georgian Dream sailed to an easy victory. I argued recently that Georgian Dream is in the driver's seat with regard to the local elections, including because of the rifts in the opposition and its lack of succe...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: UZS benefits from a rare confluence of favorable external conditions
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Oct 2025

Last week, I argued that CCA appreciation vs. the US$ has come to an end and may only resume on a sustainable basis should the RUB start strengthening again (the RUB has already retraced some of its recent losses). I stressed that the Uzbekistani sum was the only CCA currency that did not quite f...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA currency appreciation has come to an end
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Sep 2025

In mid-June I asked how long the CCA currency strength (vs the US$) would continue. My key thesis was that, beyond the myriad relevant macro stats, this would critically depend on the RUB. In short, I argued that the ongoing strengthening of local currencies vs the US$ would only have legs until ...

Topic of the week - 3Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Sep 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 206-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the third quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan's fast growing population—a blessing or a curse?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Sep 2025

About two years ago, spurred by William MacAskill’s “What We Owe The Future”, a book that focuses on long-termism and effective altruism, I tried to explore what the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time might mean for the Caucasus and Central A...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia's Pashinyan can still emerge victorious in next year's elections—against all odds
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Sep 2025

Armenia stands at a fork in the road as Premier Pashinyan promotes an agenda of "peace through concessions" as the central message to the electorate in the runup to the Jun 2026 parliamentary elections. With its provision for the acknowledgment of Nagorno-Karabakh as an Azerbaijani territory and ...

Aug CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Azerbaijan revises down 2025 GDP growth, remittances to Uzbekistan keep on growing
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 Aug 2025

I touch on the key macro-political events in the South Caucasus during the latest month: Armenia: CPI declines to 3.4% YoY in Jul Armenia: Central Bank keeps policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Government debt inches down in 2Q25 Armenia: GDP grows by 5.9% YoY in 2Q25 Armenia: Monthly ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Why is Georgia growing so much faster than Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Aug 2025

When the IMF upped its 2025 GDP forecast for Georgia (to 7.2%) in June upon conducting its regular Article IV Mission in Tbilisi, many were caught by surprise. After all, wasn't Georgia about to experience the aftershocks of the contested parliamentary and presidential elections in 2024 as religi...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How much time will it take to build a functioning TRIPP?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Aug 2025

The various geopolitical angles surrounding the Washington Summit between Armenia and Azerbaijan have now been well analyzed in full detail. One particular (technical) consideration that has captured my attention has, however, been given virtually no consideration by experts. It relates to the so...

Pashinyan and Aliyev take key steps toward peace — but at what cost, and to whose benefit?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Aug 2025

The signing of the Joint Declaration by Armenia and Azerbaijan reveals a geopolitical process that falls in line with the forecast I presented in my July Webinar. In particular, the declaration confirms my view that global and regional players (chiefly US, Turkey and Azerbaijan) recognize that Pa...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is making good progress with renewable energy sources
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Aug 2025

In the past several days, two stories about the energy industry of Uzbekistan have made headlines. First, Uzbekistan and SOCAR Azerbaijan have entered into a production sharing agreement (PSA) on the Ustyurt plateau with expectations of investing US$2bn and discovering an impressive 100mn tons of...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Most frequently asked questions from the CCA Webinar
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Aug 2025

In last week's CCA Webinar I focused on the political developments in the region, including Georgian Dream's chances of winning the local elections in October, Armenian PM Pashinyan's attack on the Armenian Apostolic Church, and the recent escalation of tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. The...

Replay and Slide Presentation: Political Passions in the South Caucasus
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Presentation · 25 Jul 2025

Is Georgian Dream in the driving seat in the runup to the local elections in October? Why is Armenian PM Pashinyan taking a gamble attacking the Church and what does it have to do with the June 2026 Parliamentary Elections? CCA currencies are in a sweet spot, but for how long? Get insight into...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions improve marginally in CCA in 1Q25
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Jul 2025

The 1Q25 data for the CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position improved marginally in the first quarter of the year, but remained in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan narrowed from 2.1 percent of GDP in 4...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: The battle of the Caucasus—What is happening between Azerbaijan and Russia and what will be the consequences?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jul 2025

Key events in the Caucasus are these days being forced upon us with constant regularity. While Pashinyan has resorted to extreme measures to suppress dissent against his unpopular moves to placate Turkey and Azerbaijan and strike a peace deal that the Armenian society sees as a capitulation, Aliy...

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