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Mar CCA highlights: Armenia issues Eurobonds, Azerbaijan's SOFAZ to increase gold holdings to 170 tons, US$6bn FDI to Georgia from UAE to start next year, Uzbekistan implements a surprise rate hike
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2025

In this report, I briefly touch on the key macro-political events in the CCA during Mar: Armenia: CPI accelerates to 2.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Central Bank keeps key policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Monthly economic indicator drops to only 1.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Withdrawal from EEU ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: FDI in Georgia underwhelms in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Last week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2024) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, foreign direct investment has been the subject of intense discussions and speculation over the course of last year as the government and the opposi...

Topic of the week - 1Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Mar 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 216-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Two good pieces of macro news for Uzbekistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Mar 2025

A key macro risk for Uzbekistan has been the transition into a net gas importer status in 2023. The external gap in trading natural gas worsened significantly in 2024 as the country continued to suffer from declining gas production. Still, overall trade dynamics improved last year as higher gas...

Feb CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps cutting rates, Georgia's GDP growth has a very strong start to the year, Uzbekistan issues Eurobonds for US$1.5bn, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan settle multi-year border dispute
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Feb 2025

The Feb CCA highlights key macro-political events in the region: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.9% in 2024 Armenia: CPI rises by 1.7% y/y in Jan Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 7.1% YoY in Jan Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 6.75% Armenia: FX reserves fall to ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Monetary policy in a wait-and-see mode in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Feb 2025

Inflation in the CCA space peaked in mid-2022 and has been on a steady downward trajectory through 1Q24, when it bottomed out. Some acceleration of price growth has gradually become ever more evident across the board since later in 2024, and I anticipate that momentum to entrench itself over the ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tourism statistics in Georgia defy political crisis
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Feb 2025

Tourism in Georgia has traditionally been a cash cow for the economy, having brought on average about 8 percent of GDP annually over 2010-2023. Naturally, then, the events of the last year with the adoption of the Transparency Law (foreign agents law) and the disputed Parliamentary elections have...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Kyrgyzstan looking to tap international markets
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Feb 2025

Kyrgyzstan has made news recently, having announced its intention to issue sovereign bonds worth US$1.7bn for the first time in its history. This would be a significant financial move for Bishkek given the size of its economy (US$17bn in 2024). It is aimed at diversifying funding sources and redu...

Jan CCA Highlights: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia keep rates unchanged, Georgia's 2024 GDP soars to 9.5%, FX reserves reach record-high level in Uzbekistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 31 Jan 2025

We discuss key macro and political events in the CCA during Jan: Armenia: Armenia plans to issue new Eurobonds in 2025 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator rises by 4.7% YoY in Dec Armenia: 2025 public debt payments to exceed US$2.4bn Armenia: CPI increases to 1.5% YoY in Dec Armenia: FX re...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Inflation set to accelerate in 2025, but remain broadly contained
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Jan 2025

Inflation fell in all CCA countries in 2024 despite above-average economic growth. Average price growth moderated from 5.4 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent in 2024. Inflation reached a bottom in 1Q24, chiefly on still powerful base effects, mainly food, but some acceleration of price growth has gra...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Are the clouds darkening over Armenia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Jan 2025

I argued in mid-2024 that Armenia's Eurobond outperformance (in particular relative to its higher-rated neighbor Georgia) was explicitly driven by perceptions of sharply reduced political and geopolitical risk premia. Internal challenges to PM Pashinyan failed to materialize over the course of 2...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions firm up in CCA in 3Q24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Jan 2025

The 3Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published late last year, shows that the regional current account position has continued to improve, although it remains in deficit. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan has come in at 1.7 percent of GDP vs 2.0 percent of GDP in 2Q and 3.1 per...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian authorities score an important symbolic victory
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 03 Jan 2025

The year starts exactly as it ended, with Georgia occupying our minds, as the outgoing President surrendered much more easily than anticipated despite promising to offer stiffer resistance to those (Georgian Dream) who were barely hiding their desire to see her gone, and the new President was ina...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Q&A on 2024 Uzbekistan macro
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Dec 2024

In 2024, Uzbekistan's economy continued to grow at a pace comparable to previous years. GDP grew by 6.6% over Jan-Sep. In 11 months, accumulated inflation has risen to 8.7%, which is higher than the same indicator in 2023. Annual (YoY) inflation has exceeded 10%. At the end of the year, the Centr...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: 2025 CCA Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Forecast · 13 Dec 2024

2025 will bring lower GDP growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia, although the moderation in the pace of economic activity will be limited. We forecast average GDP growth to ease from an estimated 6.8% in 2024 to 5.5% in 2025, which will still be slightly above the previous decade's (2014-2023) ...

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