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TOPIC OF THE WEEK: A cynic's view on Abkhazia's Black Friday
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 Nov 2024

The breakaway Republic of Abkhazia, which is internationally recognized as part of Georgia, got its 15 minutes of fame last Friday when protesters stormed government buildings in Sukhumi in opposition to an investment agreement that would have legalized Russian investments and ownership of land a...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Shall we brace for a currency crisis in Georgia?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Nov 2024

For a week we tried to steer away from Georgia and discussed (last week) the medium-term budgetary envelope in Uzbekistan, but events in Georgia give us no respite. The very large decline in FX reserves in Georgia last month has raised fears about the sustainability of FX buffers in an environmen...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Uzbekistan is on course to tame its fiscal excesses
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Nov 2024

Uzbekistan's Ministry of Finance has presented a draft fiscal framework for 2025 with a headline deficit of 3% of GDP or UZS 49.3tn (US$ 3.7bn). This estimate is based on the consolidated revenues and expenditure of the state, the country's development fund, and 18 extra-budgetary funds. It will ...

Webinar replay: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024

Visit our calendar page to watch the replay of our webinar on the CCA's political and economic outlook. What will Georgia's outlook be following its war or peace parliamentary elections? Is Armenia's diamond bonanza over? How did Uzbekistan and Tajikistan manage to increase remittances and imp...

Slide presentation: Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Nov 2024

Get insight into the Caucasus and Central Asia region's political and economic outlook with the slide presentation from our webinar, "Georgia's Elections and Caucasus and Central Asia Outlook".

Georgian Elections-First Thoughts
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Oct 2024

The much-anticipated Parliamentary Elections took place yesterday in a much calmer environment than thought and the Central Election Commission has announced that Georgian Dream has confidently won. With 99.9% of the votes counted, the results are the following: Georgian Dream" - 54.93% with 89 m...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian elections—the calm before the storm
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Oct 2024

The Georgian Parliamentary elections are attracting a great deal of attention, and the CEC announced that international observer organizations are already at a record high. With the geopolitical stakes so high, the elections have been described by the ruling Georgian Dream as a choice between war...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: How did Armenia and Georgia manage to grow their economies by a fifth in 2022-2023?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Oct 2024

We have on a number of occasions underlined the strong growth performance that Armenia and Georgia have enjoyed over the last couple of years. This has helped boost their standing in the GDP-per-capita ranking in the CIS space. Both countries have delivered an impressive 20% real GDP growth over ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CA positions improve in the CCA in 2Q24, allowing for useful FX reserve buildup
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Oct 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 2Q24 allows us to assess the overall external performance in the region in the second quarter of the year. The 2Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published this week, has shown an improving external position (for all count...

Sep CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps easing, Azerbaijan reveals key assumptions of 2025 budget, Georgia grows by 9.0% over 1H, Uzbekistan leaves policy rates unchanged
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Sep 2024

We briefly comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA in Sep: Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 7.50% Armenia: CPI remains contained at 1.3% YoY in Aug Armenia: Central Bank expects economy to grow by 5.8-6.5% in 2024 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator slow...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook-3Q24
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Sep 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. The evolution of macroeconomic activity has been strong in 2024, and we have upgraded our full-year CCA GDP growth to 6.3 percent (5.8 percent previously) vs the 6.2 percent posted last year. This has been chiefly due to better perfo...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Political spectrum shapes up in Georgia in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Sep 2024

We stay on topic with Georgia as we transition from economics, which we discussed last week, to politics and, in particular, the upcoming Oct 26th Parliamentary Elections. The political spectrum has already shaped up, with three opposition coalitions facing the ruling Georgian Dream. While the la...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian economy firing on all cylinders
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 06 Sep 2024

The Georgian economy has posted a very impressive 9.7 percent GDP growth over the first seven months of the year (YoY), rendering it the fastest-growing economy in the CCA space. Fast-declining inflation has helped generate high real wage growth and, consequently, robust consumption spending. Low...

Aug CCA Highlights: Armenian 1H GDP growth revised down, Azerbaijan gets IG status from Fitch, Uzbekistan's GDP surpasses US$100bn, Tajikistan upgraded by S&P
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Aug 2024

We comment on the key macro and political events in the CCA region in Aug: Armenia: 2Q GDP grows by 6.4% YoY Armenia: Fitch affirms Armenia at BB- with a stable outlook Armenia: Central bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 7.75% Armenia: Inflation edges up to 1.4% YoY in Jul Armenia: Bu...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Tajikistan gets a well-warranted rating upgrade
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Aug 2024

S&P has upgraded Tajikistan to B from B- citing robust GDP growth, improved external position and moderate public debt levels. We think the upgrade is well deserved. Twice in the last year we have posited that perceptions about Tajikistan’s ability to meet external obligations have been unduly pl...

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