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May CCA highlights: Armenia and Georgia keep policy rates unchanged, Tajikistan cuts rates, Uzbekistan's FX reserve reach record-highs, Azerbaijan's CPI breaches CPI target range
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 May 2025

I briefly touch on the key macro and political events in the CCA in May: Armenia: GDP expands by 5.2% YoY in 1Q25 Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 5.4% YoY in Apr Armenia: Amulsar mine launch may have positive impact on GDP growth of about 0.5% Armenia: Central Bank keeps po...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia—Key FX flows continue to pour in as the NBG accumulates FX reserves
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 May 2025

The NBG Governor made what appeared to be a surprising statement this week, claiming that this year net FX purchases are already much higher than last year's net sales. Given that last year's net sales amounted to US$434.8mn while net purchases Jan to Mar were only US$101.7mn, net FX acquisitions...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia—An avalanche of impeachment proposals and the weakening economy to increasingly challenge Nikol Pashinyan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 May 2025

Misfortunes tend to occur in succession or clusters rather than in isolation, and this applies in full force to PM Pashinyan. Despite all the fanfare surrounding the March announcement that the draft peace deal with Azerbaijan had been finalized, nothing has been signed, while April brought about...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgian Dream in the driver's seat six months before the local elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 09 May 2025

Six months after the Oct Parliamentary vote, the post-election environment in Georgia has evolved in line with my (at the time) counter-consensus forecast, in which I argued before the ballot day: "In short, in my view, there will be a four-step process, including: 1) a simple majority win for G...

Apr CCA highlights: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan keep policy rates unchanged, Armenia concludes 5th review of IMF's SBA, Georgia defies expectations and grows strongly, by 9.3 % YoY in 1Q
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 May 2025

I review key economic and political events in the CCA in April: Armenia: CPI rises to 3.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 3.7% YoY in Mar Armenia: IMF and Armenia reach staff level agreement on the Fifth Review of the SBA Armenia: FX reserves jump in Mar on Eurobon...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA public external debt service appears (mostly) manageable over 2025-26
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 25 Apr 2025

I continue exploring the external side of the CCA economies as the more challenging global backdrop in the wake of Trump's tariffs may add to the already worsening CA dynamics that I discussed earlier in Apr. In this report I examine the public external debt profile and debt service for 2025 and...

Armenia: Opposition takes Gyumri in a potentially key milestone in Armenian politics
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2025

As I anticipated, the Council of Elders of the second-largest city in Armenia was able yesterday to elect Vardan Ghukasyan (the leading candidate from the Communist party) as the new mayor of Gyumri. This is an important event in Armenian politics for at least three key reasons. First, it demonst...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Current account positions decay in CCA in 2024; deterioration to continue in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 11 Apr 2025

The 4Q24 data for our CCA economies, which was published over the last week or so, shows that the regional current account (CA) position deteriorated in the last quarter of the year. In particular, the CA deficit ex-Azerbaijan deteriorated from 0.8 percent of GDP in 3Q24 to 1.8 percent of GDP in ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia - What happened in Gyumri?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 04 Apr 2025

While the world is justifiably focused on US tariffs, I ponder on the much more esoteric, but no less exciting topic of regional elections in Armenia. Last week the second-largest city in the country, Gyumri, held municipal elections that delivered a result that may have very important consequen...

Mar CCA highlights: Armenia issues Eurobonds, Azerbaijan's SOFAZ to increase gold holdings to 170 tons, US$6bn FDI to Georgia from UAE to start next year, Uzbekistan implements a surprise rate hike
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2025

In this report, I briefly touch on the key macro-political events in the CCA during Mar: Armenia: CPI accelerates to 2.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Central Bank keeps key policy rate unchanged at 6.75% Armenia: Monthly economic indicator drops to only 1.5% YoY in Feb Armenia: Withdrawal from EEU ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: FDI in Georgia underwhelms in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Mar 2025

Last week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2024) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, foreign direct investment has been the subject of intense discussions and speculation over the course of last year as the government and the opposi...

Topic of the week - 1Q2025 CCA Slide deck
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 Mar 2025

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 216-slide detailed description of the economic status-quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Two good pieces of macro news for Uzbekistan
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 Mar 2025

A key macro risk for Uzbekistan has been the transition into a net gas importer status in 2023. The external gap in trading natural gas worsened significantly in 2024 as the country continued to suffer from declining gas production. Still, overall trade dynamics improved last year as higher gas...

Feb CCA Highlights: Armenia keeps cutting rates, Georgia's GDP growth has a very strong start to the year, Uzbekistan issues Eurobonds for US$1.5bn, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan settle multi-year border dispute
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Feb 2025

The Feb CCA highlights key macro-political events in the region: Armenia: GDP grows by 5.9% in 2024 Armenia: CPI rises by 1.7% y/y in Jan Armenia: Monthly economic indicator increases by 7.1% YoY in Jan Armenia: Central Bank cuts policy rate by 25bpts to 6.75% Armenia: FX reserves fall to ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Monetary policy in a wait-and-see mode in 2025
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 21 Feb 2025

Inflation in the CCA space peaked in mid-2022 and has been on a steady downward trajectory through 1Q24, when it bottomed out. Some acceleration of price growth has gradually become ever more evident across the board since later in 2024, and I anticipate that momentum to entrench itself over the ...

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