GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Date: 3 Jun 2026 | Time: 10:00 AM EDT Can Nikol Pashinyan retain power after the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh? Can the opposition unite behind a single credible challenger? Could Armenia face another period of instability if the result is disputed? Join us for our live Zoom webinar featuring Globa...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia after an opposition victory—Georgia 2.0?

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 29 May 2026

The parliamentary elections on Jun 7th are increasingly being viewed by market participants as tantamount to reaching a fork in the road. A win by Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party would reinforce the current westward drift and preserve the positive momentum already visible in Armenian...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: London trip notes

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 22 May 2026

I visited clients in London this week to discuss Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and I briefly summarize my impressions in this report. Countries can be most usefully arranged in three distinctive groups depending on client interest. Most attention was devoted...

Topic of the week: May 2026 CCA Slide deck - fresh views reflecting Iran developments

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 14 May 2026

This is a mid-quarter edition of the quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia, comprising a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structur...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Iran shock reshapes CCA macro dynamics

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 May 2026

The Iran crisis has brought to the fore two relevant cross-cutting themes in the CCA related to inflation (monetary policy) and exchange rates. Regarding inflation and monetary policy, early in the crisis I constructed a simple comparative framework (vulnerability index) that aimed to capture ...

Tajikistan breaks record with massive CA surplus

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 27 Apr 2026

As I indicated earlier, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, arguably the two most interesting countries from an analytical perspective as far as the external sector is concerned, lagged with reporting full 2025 BoP data, but the former has now announced it. Very meaningfully, Tajikistan has posted its 6th...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Inside the seductive complexity of Armenia's election math

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 24 Apr 2026

Two fresh polls were released in Armenia over the past two weeks, which allows me to tighten up my predictions about how the elections will evolve in about a month's time. The polls are valuable as it has been now two months since the previous batch of surveys were produced, so that the new resul...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia set to overtake Azerbaijan in per capita GDP this year

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 17 Apr 2026

Azerbaijan may have claimed military victory vis-a-vis Armenia, but the war on the economic front appears to have evolved along different lines as demonstrated by probably my favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses the target Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region. Based on the jus...

Hungary's election-a few lessons for Armenia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2026

The erosion of Viktor Orbán’s long-standing political dominance in Hungary, resulting in his election loss, can offer a couple of genuinely important lessons for Armenian observers. They are particularly relevant given my mathematical analysis of the election complexities of the Armenian election...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging trends in 2025 CA positions

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 10 Apr 2026

Four countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan reported 4Q25 and full-year BoP data over the last week. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the countries sitting at both extremes of CA positions and, in my view, presenting the most interesting analytical cases, are yet to do that....

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Dancing on a fault line-Armenia heads to the polls

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 02 Apr 2026

With two months to election day, three key opposition centers of gravity have formed that stand reasonable chances of making it through the National Assembly, although, by law, April 23 marks the final day when blocks and coalition may be formally announced. In this piece, I first briefly out...

Topic of the week - 1Q2026 CCA Slide deck

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 27 Mar 2026

The quarterly slide deck for the Caucasus and Central Asia is a 209-slide detailed description of the economic status quo in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as of the first quarter of the year. It covers various topics, including growth, economic structure, inf...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: From Tehran to the pump: oil shock inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 20 Mar 2026

The adverse oil shock emanating from the Iran crisis risks derailing the disinflation story that I expected across the CCA this year. Inflation across the region appeared to have peaked in 2025, with most economies projected to see easing price pressures in 2026, including on slower growth, a fav...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Georgia regains investor interest in 2025

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 13 Mar 2026

This week the Georgian statistical office reported the much awaited full-year (2025) data on FDI. Similar to the tourist numbers I discussed earlier, FDI has been the subject of intense discussion and speculation over the course of the last two years as the government and the opposition have offe...

Azerbaijan’s Iran crisis mood: anxiety, not triumph

CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 09 Mar 2026

I spent much of the weekend wading through Azerbaijani commentary on the latest round of conflict with Iran (Iran's alleged drone strike against Nakhchivan, the militarized response from Baku, Iran's military public appeal to Azerbaijan to expel Israelis from its territory, as the latter presumab...