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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Has Georgian Dream shot itself in the foot by pressing on with the Transparency Law?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 07 May 2024

While Georgia is enjoying a week-long Easter holiday, political developments in the country resemble nothing of a holiday mood. The unexpected decision by Georgian Dream to re-introduce the controversial "Foreign Agents" bill (dubbed the "Russian Law" by the opposition and global media) has set i...

April CCA Highlights: Armenia's deflation persists, Azerbaijan's GDP growth strong in 1Q, Georgia buys gold, Uzbekistan raises utility tariffs, Tajikistan summons Russian amabassador
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 30 Apr 2024

We comment on the key economic developments in the Caucasus and Central Asia in April: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator grows by 15.3% YoY in Mar Armenia: Central Bank lowers refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.25% Armenia: CA posts a 2.1% of GDP deficit in 2023 Armenia: Gross external debt ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Armenia and Georgia rising
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Apr 2024

Once per year, we conduct one of our favorite exercises in the CIS space, which encompasses our target Caucasus and Central Asia region. Based on the April WEO, which has final 2023 PPP-based GDP data, we calculate per-capita GDP levels and 10-year GDP growth rates in order to rank individual eco...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diamond-turbocharged growth in Armenia
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 19 Apr 2024

Armenia was the fourth fastest-growing economy in the world last year (8.7 percent in 2023), but the heady pace of expansion had been slowing down to around 5-6 percent YoY by Sep/Oct last year when a sudden surge of economic activity resulted in much accelerated growth. Indeed, over Nov-Feb GDP ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Analysis of growth drivers points to upside risks to economic performance in 2024
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 12 Apr 2024

The publication of the national accounts data for 4Q23 allows us to investigate in more detail the breakdown of growth drivers across Caucasus and Central Asia economies for the year (2023) as a whole. The most salient feature of our analysis is that the counter-intuitive (and counter-cyclical) i...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CAs return to "normal" deficit positions in 2023 (and beyond)
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 05 Apr 2024

The publication of current account data for the CCA economies for 4Q23 allows us to assess overall external performance in 2023. Our key conclusion is that the one-off sizable improvement of CA positions in 2022 on the back of excess monetary inflows (remittances) from Russia has mostly come to a...

CCA Highlights: Armenia boasts stellar early 2024 growth, Azerbaijan cuts rates, Georgia's outlook upgraded by Moody's, Uzbekistan sees continuing declines in gas output
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 28 Mar 2024

We comment on the key macro and political stories in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: Monthly economic indicator soars to 16.3% y/y in Feb Armenia: Budget posts large deficit in Feb Armenia: PM argues that GDP is growing above its potential Armenia: PM claims Azerbaijan may start war...

CCA Highlights: Armenia approaches neutral rate, Georgia makes a bold rate cut, Uzbekistan re-introduces limits on electricity consumption
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 18 Mar 2024

We briefly comment on key macro and political events in the CCA space: Armenia: Deflation steepens in Feb Armenia: Central Bank cuts refinancing rate by 25bpts to 8.50 percent Armenia: CB Governor sees policy rate approaching neutral level Armenia: Budget posts surplus in Jan Armenia: Net ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Diverging impulses in monetary policies across CCA
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 15 Mar 2024

This week brought three rate decisions in the CCA, including Armenia, Georgia and Uzbekistan. They demonstrate that, while the broader easing momentum in the region continues, policymakers take a different view on how underlying macroeconomic conditions affect the path for policy rates. Indeed...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: CCA Quarterly Outlook
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 08 Mar 2024

We provide the quarterly update of our country “cheat sheets”. Since we published our 2024 Outlook, which we dubbed “Less growth, less risk”, the evolution of macroeconomic activity has been supportive of the idea of a slightly moderating pace of activity. Still, the start of the year has been st...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: What is Armenia's Pashinyan strategy to stay in power?
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 01 Mar 2024

PM Pashinyan’s geopolitical equilibristics have left Armenia uncomfortably exposed in the ever-changing regional dynamics in the aftermath of the 3rd Karabakh War. The series of Russia-unfriendly steps undertaken by Pashinyan, including joining the International Criminal Court and suspending part...

CCA Highlights: Armenia grows by 8.7% in 2023, Azerbaijan's growth finally accelerates in Jan, Georgia suffers large drop in Jan exports, Uzbekistan modernizes monetary transmission mechanism
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 26 Feb 2024 · 1 response

We comment on the key recent macro events in the Caucasus and Central Asia: Armenia: 2023 posts 8.7 percent GDP growth Armenia: 2023 foreign trade deficit widens Armenia: REER inches down in Dec, but still runs in overvaluation mode Armenia: CB publishes minutes from Jan 30th rates meeting ...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Energy independence is a key limitation to Uzbekistan's ambitious growth objectives
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 23 Feb 2024 · 1 response

Unfortunately, this week brought painful memories from last winter, when severe cold spells caused electricity blackouts and temporary closures of key enterprises. Low temperatures led to a drop in gas pressure in Uzbekistan’s main gas pipelines, which, in turn, brought about a number of key acci...

TOPIC OF THE WEEK: Economic cycle to serve the new Georgian government well in the run-up to the Oct elections
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · Report · 16 Feb 2024

As the new government led by Irakli Kobahidze starts its term, prospects for the economy look bright, with Georgia gearing up for the October parliamentary elections. The strong economic momentum continues, with 2023 GDP growth upgraded to 7.5 percent from 7.0 percent previously. We forecast 2024...

Tajikistan's CB lowers policy rate in a surprise move
CAUCASUS / CENTRAL ASIA · In Brief · 12 Feb 2024

The Central Bank of Tajikistan lowered the policy rate by 50bpts to 9.50%. This is the first change since May last year when the policy rate was decreased by 100bpts to 11.0 percent. The accompanying statement (only in Tajik) consisted of a single paragraph arguing that the decision has been take...

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